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Putting Immigration Reform To The Test Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for HART RESEARCH ASSOTESCIA Telephone survey among 1,608 voters in.

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Presentation on theme: "Putting Immigration Reform To The Test Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for HART RESEARCH ASSOTESCIA Telephone survey among 1,608 voters in."— Presentation transcript:

1 Putting Immigration Reform To The Test Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for HART RESEARCH ASSOTESCIA Telephone survey among 1,608 voters in four key states (405 AR, 401 CO, 401 MO, 401 OH), Conducted April 14 – 18, 2010

2 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research2 Key Survey Findings ► The survey tested public support for a comprehensive immigration reform plan in four moderate-conservative states: Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio. ► The plan was described as an Obama/Democratic plan and subjected to very strong Republican criticisms throughout the survey. ► After equal exposure to criticisms and Democratic responses, voters in these states support reform by a solid 14-point margin, with clear majority support in Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio, while Arkansas voters are evenly divided. ► In every state, confidence in the Democrats to handle the immigration issue grows considerably after voters hear the plan and subsequent debate.

3 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research3 Survey Conducted On Challenging Political Terrain Preferred Outcome for 2010 Congressional Elections Barack Obama’s Job Approval All voters Democrat-controlled Congress Republican-controlled Congress Want Demo- crats to control 29% 40% 34% 43% Want Repub- licans to control 47% 38% 46% 38% Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio All voters ApproveDisapprove Approve 34% 43% 40% 50% Dis- approve 57% 46% 52% 42% Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio On average, these states went for McCain by 50% to 49% in 2008.

4 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research4 Immigration Is Good For America Overall View of Immigration All voters Immigration is a GOOD thing for this country today Immigration is a BAD thing for this country today ArkansasColoradoMissouriOhio

5 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research5 Recession Has Not Changed Public View Of Immigration Preferred Level of Immigration Increase Keep present level Decrease Not sure Voters nationwide June 2007

6 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research6 Confidence In Parties To Handle Immigration Which party would do a better job handling illegal immigration? All voters ArkansasColoradoMissouriOhio DemocratsRepublicansBoth good/neither good/not sure -12 -20 -9 -20

7 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research7 Strong Support For Obama/Democratic Immigration Reform Plan Approve 67% Plan Supported by Obama, Most Democrats, Some Republicans 24% Disapprove Description of Main Elements: 1.Strengthens border security 2.Requires employers to ensure all employees legal; companies that employ illegal immigrants face steep fines and penalties 3.Illegal immigrants already in the U.S. required to register for legal status, learn English, pay taxes, or face deportation 4.Establishes process to increase legal immigration into the U.S. only when employers are unable to fill job positions with citizens/legal residents All Voters Strongly 31% Strongly 13% Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio 66% 69% 67% Approve

8 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research8 Reaction To Individual Components Approve Disapprove Require everyone to have high-tech, fraud-proof Social Security card that can’t be counterfeited; employers must check cards to ensure they hire only legal workers Speed up process for giving green cards to people in other countries who have applied to come and work legally in the United States Tie the flow of legal immigration to economy: more immigrants allowed in legally when economic need; fewer immigrants allowed in when unemployment high 36% feel positive and 38% feel negative about “increasing legal immigration.”

9 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research9 Attack #1: Republicans Oppose This “ Amnesty ” Plan Most Republicans in Congress oppose this immigration plan and say it is really just an amnesty plan for illegal immigrants who broke the law. All voters This is an unfair political attack This is a fair criticism ArkansasColoradoMissouriOhio

10 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research10 Strong Republican Criticism Of Plan Concerns 4 in 10 Voters Very/fairly convincing 41% All Voters Very convincing 27% REPUBLICANS say this plan is really just another amnesty proposal that gives a slap on the wrist to people who have been breaking our laws for years. It rewards people who came into the country illegally by giving them citizen- ship and taxpayer-funded benefits, like the new Obama health care plan. It allows millions of illegal workers to compete with American citizens for hard-to-find jobs when 15 million of our citizens are unemployed. And it opens the floodgates to millions more coming in, because the 12 million illegal immigrants who receive amnesty will then bring in their family members still living overseas.

11 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research11 But Democratic Message Is Rated More Convincing 56% 41% All Voters GOP Attack #1 Very convincing 32% DEMOCRATS say they are offering a tough, fair, and practical plan to get the broken immigration system under control. We must secure our borders and crack down on employers that hire illegal immigrants to drive down wages. It is unacceptable to have 12 million people in our country who are outside the system. We must require illegal immigrants to register for legal status, pay their taxes, learn English, and pass criminal background checks to remain in the country and work toward citizenship. Those who have a criminal record or refuse to register should be deported. Very/fairly convincing Dem Message Very convincing 27%

12 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research12 Voters Agree More With Democratic Position All voters Repub- lican attack Demo- cratic message Which do you agree with more: GOP Attack or Democratic Message? Democratic Message – GOP Attack Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio Preferred Majority in Congress: Democrats Republicans No preference Democrats Independents Republicans Liberals Moderates Conservatives -2 +17 +11 +23 +70 -45 +26 +73 +9 -50 +64 +39 -39 +12

13 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research13 Attack #2: Border Security First All voters Agree more with Republican statement ArkansasColoradoMissouriOhio Agree more with Democratic statement REPUBLICANS say a secure border is essential for our national security, so before we do anything else we must secure our borders. Only after the border is sealed should we begin taking steps to deal with the illegal immigrants already here. DEMOCRATS say strengthening border security is essential, and our plan does that, but that's only part of the solution. Fixing our broken immigration system also means cracking down on illegal hiring and requiring illegal immigrants to become legal taxpayers.. +11 +13 +17 +20

14 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research14 Attack #3: Amnesty By Another Name All voters Agree more with Republican statement ArkansasColoradoMissouriOhio Agree more with Democratic statement REPUBLICANS say this is just am- nesty with a new name. The Demo- crats claim they are being tough on immigration, but their plan rewards millions of illegal immigrants who broke the law, at the expense of others who waited in their home country and played by the rules. DEMOCRATS say this is not am- nesty. Our plan will require those here illegally to pay a fine and taxes, learn English, and register to become legal. Anyone who fails a criminal background check or refus- es to register will be sent home. +13 +1 +17 +13 +23

15 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research15 +3 -12 +12 +15 -2 Attack #4: Now Is Not The Time All voters Agree more with Republican statement ArkansasColoradoMissouriOhio Agree more with Democratic statement REPUBLICANS say with 15 million Americans out of work, now is not the time to increase immigration and make it easier for illegal immigrants to stay here. We should deport illegal immigrants because they're taking our jobs, not reward them with amnesty. DEMOCRATS say America should decide who gets to live in our country, but politicians need to be straight with the American people about the 12 million illegal immi- grants already here. Our plan will turn those willing to work hard and play by the rules into taxpayers, so they pay their fair share of taxes.

16 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research16 Attack #5: Will Cost Taxpayers Billions All voters Agree more with Republican statement ArkansasColoradoMissouriOhio Agree more with Democratic statement REPUBLICANS say this plan is going to cost American taxpayers billions of dollars and further increase the budget deficit. Once immigrants receive amnesty, they will be eligible for even more taxpayer-funded services, like the Obama health care plan. And millions of new immigrants will put even more pressure on schools, hospitals, and other public services. DEMOCRATS say our immigration reform plan will require immigrants and their employers to pay their full and fair share of taxes, which will result in billions in new revenues and reduce the deficit. Every day we delay requiring illegal immi- grants to get legal and pay taxes is another day the American taxpayer picks up the tab. +4 +13 +10 -7

17 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research17 Bottom Line: Voters Favor Plan By 14-point Margin After Debate Final Support for Immigration Reform Proposal All voters ArkansasColoradoMissouriOhio Strongly Somewhat APPROVE DISAPPROVE 52% 38% 56% 36% 57% 30% 53% 42% 43% +14 +20 +11 +27

18 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research18 Bottom Line: Voters Favor Plan By 14-point Margin After Debate Final Support for Immigration Reform Proposal, Among Key Subgroups All voters Democrats Independents Republicans Preferred Majority in Congress Democrats Republicans No preference Liberals Moderates Conservatives Approve 52% 86% 45% 22% 86% 24% 50% 82% 66% 27% Disapprove 38% 8% 39% 68% 8% 66% 33% 13% 24% 62% Differential +14 +78 +6 -46 +78 -42 +17 +69 +42 -35

19 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research19 Democrats Improve Position On Immigration In Every State Which party would do a better job handling illegal immigration? All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio Demo- crats 38% 31% 40% 41% Repub- licans 34% 36% 31% 39% 27% Dem advan- tage +4 -5 +9 +2 +14 Final Reading Demo- crats 24% 21% 23% 22% 28% Repub- licans 36% 41% 32% 42% 29% Dem advan- tage -12 -20 -11 -20 Initial Reading

20 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research20 Message and Language Findings

21 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research21 Voters ’ Goals For Immigration Very positive reaction to this phrase Somewhat positive reaction Fixing our broken immigration system Cracking down on employers who hire illegal immigrants Immigration reform Restoring the rule of law Comprehensive immigration reform 80% 76% 64% 61% 58%

22 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research22 Dealing With Illegal Immigrants Very positive reaction to this phrase Somewhat positive reaction Very negative reaction to this phrase Somewhat negative reaction Requiring illegal immigrants to become legal Deporting illegal immigrants Providing path to citizenship for illegal immigrants Legalizing illegal immigrants Amnesty for illegal immigrants 70% 17% 54% 50% 32% 55% 57% 29% 27% 21%

23 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research23 Tough Approach Requiring Immigrants To Become Legal Beats Conservative Agenda All voters Require immigrants who are here illegally to become legal, learn English, and pay taxes, & deport immigrants who refuse to become legal Identify illegal immigrants, require them to return to their home country, and allow them to apply to reenter the U.S. legally Require steps to legal/ deport if refuse 47% 53% 55% 53% Require return to home country/ reapply 49% 40% 45% 39% Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio Require immigrants who are here illegally to become legal, learn English, and pay taxes Require steps to legal 40% 47% 37% 42% Require return to home country/ reapply 57% 47% 61% 50%

24 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research24 Biggest Concerns About Illegal Immigration Immigrants’ receiving free taxpayer-funded services, like health care Immigrants’ not paying taxes Takes jobs from Americans, lowers wages Too many immigrants today are not learning English Causing crime problems in many communities Weakens our security against terrorism All voters Selected One/Two Biggest Concerns

25 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research25 Biggest Concern About Plan: Use Of Taxpayer-Funded Services It will cost billions of dollars when more immigrants get taxpayer-funded services It rewards law-breaking by giving amnesty to those who came here illegally It opens the door to millions more immigrants when jobs are already scarce Biggest Concern about Immigration Reform Plan

26 Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research26 Required Legal Status Is Plan ’ s Strongest Provision, Not A Vulnerability Most Convincing Reason to Support Immigration Reform Plan Immigrants will be required to get legal and pay their fair share of taxes It cracks down on employers who hire illegal immigrants It improves border security

27 Putting Immigration Reform To The Test Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for HART RESEARCH ASSOTESCIA Telephone survey among 1,608 voters in four key states (405 AR, 401 CO, 401 MO, 401 OH), Conducted April 14 – 18, 2010


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