Workshop: Emissies schatten vanuit de ruimte Bas Mijling, Ronald van der A Emissiesymposium Lucht ● 17 juni 2014 ● Utrecht

Overzicht Meten van luchtvervuling uit de ruimte Van concentraties naar emissies NOx emissies in China en Zuid Afrika Andere emissies Conclusies en vooruitblik

Measuring air pollution from space

Atmospheric Composition (Ar) - Carbon dioxide (CO2) - Ozone (O3) - Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) - ... Samenstelling van droge lucht. N2: 78%, O2: 20.9%, Ar: 0.9%. De overige 0.1% bestaat uit sporegassen zoals CO2 (383 ppm), ozon (0-0.07 ppm), NO2 (0.02 ppm) CO2 is bekend van het broeikas-effect

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) EOS Aura satellite

Sun-synchronous Orbit 700-800 km altitude Always same orientations towards sun:rotates eastward about 1 degree each day. Each orbit experiences about 30 minutes darkness and 72 minutes sunlight OMI local overpass time: 13:00 Daily global coverage

Measuring trace gases from space

spectral irradiance [W/m2/nm] 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 wavelength [nm] spectral irradiance [W/m2/nm]

spectral irradiance [W/m2/nm] 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 wavelength [nm] spectral irradiance [W/m2/nm]

ozone (O3) nitrogen dioxide (NO2) spectral irradiance [W/m2/nm] 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 wavelength [nm] spectral irradiance [W/m2/nm] nitrogen dioxide (NO2)

www.temis.nl

www.temis.nl

Air pollution from space

Air pollution from space

Air pollution from space Shanghai Beijing Hong Kong

From concentrations to emissions

Basic tools NO2 retrievals from OMI and GOME2 CHIMERE 0.25 °×0.25°

Chemical transport model Meteorology Emission inventory Air pollution concentrations Chemical transport model

Difference between simulation and observation... simulated by model (2008) observed from space (2008) Als je satellietobservaties kunt gebruiken voor emissiebepalingen, dan sla je twee vliegen in een klap: Je kunt nauwkeuriger de luchtvervuiling simuleren (betere luchtkwaliteitsverwachtingen) Je kunt emissiebronnen controleren (houden fabrieken zich wel aan de regels) ...mainly caused by wrong emissions

How to find emissions from concentrations? ( wind

Properties of DECSO* From concentrations to emissions Takes transport into account enables high resolution (~2525 km2) Relatively fast enables operational emission estimation Emission updates by addition enables detection new hotspots enables relocation existing hotspots NO2 retrievals from OMI or GOME-2 CHIMERE 0.25° x 0.25° (A) DECSO is relatively fast: (1) Forward model run (2) Sensitivity calculation (3) Inverse with Kalman Filter (4) Emission update (B) DECSO takes transport into account, enabling a high resolution (typically in order of satellite footprint) (A) + (B): DECSO can be implemented operationally Emission results downloadable at GlobEmission website * Daily Emission estimates Constrained by Satellite Observations

NOx in China

Air pollution from space Shanghai Beijing Hong Kong

Bevolkingsdichtheid China

Change in NO2 column densities over China SCIAMACHY mean tropospheric NO2 2003 2006

China: Economic indicators Average annual income per capita, 1980-2008 China’s electricity production, 1980-2010 GDP per capita in the Netherlands: €30.174 (2006) China’s urbanization, 1980-2011 Number of vehicles in Beijing, 1998-2015 GDP in China still factor of 10 lower than in Europe. Source: China Statistical Yearbook, China Daily (17/2/09)

Shanghai 1995 Shanghai 2010

Luchtvervuiling Beijing 17 miljoen inwoners; elk jaar 500.000 nieuwe inwoners erbij 3.3 miljoen auto’s; elke dag 1000 nieuwe auto’s erbij Zware industrie dicht bij de stad Kolengestookte kachels en fornuizen

Beijing smog, januari 2013

Air quality measures No construction activities Closure or translation of polluting industry 30% reduction coal-fired power plants Ban high emission vehicles Traffic system with odd/even number plate

Emission results China original emissions new emissions New power plants in Inner Mongolia Distinct emissions along great rivers No emissions in North Korea Ship tracks

NOx emission trends Based on GOME-2 observations from 2007-2010 The results in this and following slides are based on 4 years of GOME-2 data (2007-2010). Almost all Chinese provinces show positive emission trends. Economic crisis and air quality measures cause an negative trend for Japan and South Korea. The relative emission trends in (d) show that the fasted growing provinces are also in the interior. Is the economy of the interior catching up with the richer coastal provinces? Based on GOME-2 observations from 2007-2010

The DECSO algorithm also provides information on source-receptor relations. The colored areas show the NO2 column over North and South Korea, separated by its origin. Red shows the monthly emissions (see right vertical axis) Grey shows the part of the NO2 column with an age older than 24h (which is not tracked by the DECSO algorithm). North Korea: Only a small part of NO2 is emitted locally. Most is imported from South Korea (Seoul) and China (Shenyang) South Korea: Emission and concentration factor 10 larger. NO2 concentrations mostly by local emission However: substantial part comes from sea (light blue). Intensive shipping around the peninsula!

NOx in South Africa

South Africa: Emissions characterized by few hot spots (power plants, heavy industry) Apriori emissions taken from EDGAR v4.2 Total emissions too low Location and strength of hot spots generally wrong

EDGAR v4.2 low high EDGAR v4.2 200 km

DECSO low high DECSO exp09_omi/crab2 200 km

Majuba power plant

Matimba power plant

vanadium mine

Sasol company oil from coal

Biomass burning in Mozambique

Other species

www.globemission.eu

CH2O (formaldehyde) by GOME-2

NMVOC from fire emissions

C5H8 (isoprene) emissions

PM2.5 / PM10 emissions by MODIS

NH3 by IASI NH3 total column distribution above Europe (5-yr weighted mean from morning overpass)

Conclusions & Outlook

Emission estimation from space: Standing on the shoulders of giants Inversion algorithm Chemical transport modeling Satellite retrievals

Current state Relative new technology: quality improving rapidly Already giving useful complementary information for regions with unknown or outdated emissions Urban scale Monthly emission inventories

Shortcomings Not all species can be detected from space Total emissions: difficult to infer sectorial contributions …

(Near) Future Better satellite observations Switch from scientific to operational missions TROPOMI (spatial resolution) Geostationairy (temporal resolution) Better chemical transport models Better inversion algorithms

More information www.globemission.eu www.temis.nl www.tropomi.eu www.marcopolo-panda.eu

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