Introduction to CEEH Eigil Kaas, Niels Bohr Institutet Københavns Universitet.

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Presentation transcript:

Introduction to CEEH Eigil Kaas, Niels Bohr Institutet Københavns Universitet

Interdisciplinary effort CEEH is a collaboration between seven Danish institutions working within the subject areas of Meteorology and air pollution (UoC, DMI, DMU/AU) Toxicology (AU, DMU) Epidemiology (NIPH/SDU, AU) Public health economy (CAST/SDU) Energy and system analysis (RISØ, DMU/AU, DMI) CEEH is financed by the Danish Council for Strategic Research and runs over 5 years beginning in January 2007.

Output A chain of different models will be used to obtain economically optimized energy systems in Denmark for a number of different “scenarios” and at different time horizons: 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and In CEEH their is particular focus on “externality costs” i.e. indirect environmental and health costs associated with a given setup of the Danish energy system. The final product will – for each scenario – be detailed suggestions for optimal Danish energy systems. Common language: Money and cost minimization

Inputs Main input: Scenarios spanning the 3-dimensional space of Technological development Economic growth Global energy prizes Additional inputs: State of the art energy technology catalogue Population and health data, local demography (including future assumptions) IPCC scenario for global/hemispheric particle emissions according to scenario A1B. Global/hemispheric/regional weather evolution in year Global “climate cost” of one kilogram of CO2 emission. IPCC scenario for physical climate changes according to scenario A1B.

Air polution modelling transport, chemistry, deposition Emission from energy production and usage Population and health data Meteorology / Climate (reference year: 2000) Effects on Health Externality costs Models for optimization of energy systems Environmenal effects Global externalities Cost of CO2 Future scenarios for the Nordic energy systems 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 (energy-production, consumption, emissions, net costs) Energy systems Global Air polution Technologies Economic growth and energy prices CEEH model chain

Luftforureningsmodeller transport, kemi og deponering Forureningsudslip Befolknings– og helbredsdata Meteorologi / Klima (referenceår: 2000) Helbredseffekter Værdisættelse af afledte omkostninger (eksternaliteter) Modeller for optimering af energisystemer Miljøeffekter Globale eksternaliteter Omkostninger ved udledning af CO 2 Fremtidsscenarier for Nordens energisystemer 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 (energiproduktion, forbrug, emissioner, nettoomkostninger) Energisystemer Global luftforurening Teknologier Økonomisk vækst CEEH modelkæde

Energy System Modelling – 2005 to 2050 Energy demand Transport energy Electricity Heat Fuels - from all sectors Energy supply Power plants Boilers Energy storage Hydrogen production Bio-fuels Macro economic factors Fuel prices Hardware prices Externalities System prices electricity district heat hydrogen biofuels energy demand System optimization by minimising total system costs Costs of health related externalities Costs of other externalities (climate change, nature etc.)