Visualizing Sea Level Rise: Exploring Sea Level Rise with FieldScope A University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Appalachian Lab and National Geographic Society project in collaboration with NOAA BWET program, MD Department of Natural Resources, DE and MD National Estuarine Research Reserve, and University of Virginia Blandy Experimental Farm

Decrease in sea ice – decrease in plankton – decrease in krill-decrease in penguins, albatrosses, seals & whales.

 Changing currents  Expanding ocean volume  Increasing greenhouse gases  Increasing air and water temperature  Melting land ice (glaciers, ice fields)  Sea Level Rise  Sinking Land  Increasing use of fossil fuels Lesson 1 – Causes of SLR 3

4 MEES 698Y Science for Environment Management Spring 2013

5 Bringing the contributions to sea-level rise together MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013

Sea-level rise will not stop in Schaeffer et al Nature Climate Change 2: 867. MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013 ending all emissions in 2016 stabilizing at 2ºC

Multiple implications of sea-level rise  Inundation & shoreline erosion  Increase base of storm surge  Overwhelming ability of tidal wetlands to aggrade & migrate  Salt-water intrusion in estuaries  Salinization of ag. soils  Salinization of ground water  Social demand for protection & resistance to adaptation 7 MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013

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NOAA Sea Level Online Website: Lesson 1 – Current SLR 9

Expanding ocean volume Melting glaciers Melting ice fields in Greenland Melting ice fields in Antarctica Changing ocean currents Sinking land Predicted relative SLR from 1993 to m0.13 m0.10 m0.30 m0.17 m0.15 m1.1 m Lesson 1 – Predicted SLR 10

Ocean Expansion (0-700m of depth) EXPLORING SEA LEVEL RISE RECORD: HOW MUCH HAS THE OCEAN WARMED & EXPANDED ? Oceans are Warming: Expanding & Melting ice Warm Water Expands in the ocean Melting polar Ice from warm ocean and air is adding to the ocean Atmosphere is warming: Melting polar Ice Does Melting Sea Ice Contribute to Sea Level? What makes sea level change? Is Greenland’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? Is There A Critical Tipping Point? What Can I Do? How Fast Can Sea Level Change? How Much Ice Is There At the Poles? Is Antarctica’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? *Thermosteric is change in sea surface height from expansion/contraction from temperature change

EXPLORING SEA LEVEL RISE HOW MUCH MORE WATER IS IN THE OCEAN FROM MELTING POLAR GLACIERS? MELTWATER CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL Oceans are Warming: Expanding & Melting ice Warm Water Expands in the ocean Melting polar Ice from warm ocean and air is adding to the ocean Atmosphere is warming: Melting polar Ice Does Melting Sea Ice Contribute to Sea Level? What makes sea level change? Is Greenland’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? Is There A Critical Tipping Point? What Can I Do? How Fast Can Sea Level Change? How Much Ice Is There At the Poles? Is Antarctica’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? ‘Science Fact’: Melting ice from the Earth’s glaciers adds to the oceans causing sea level to rise. Glaciers and Ice cap meltwater contribution areas, from Jacob et al Nature paper, 2012

Oceans are Warming: Expanding & Melting ice Warm Water Expands in the ocean Melting polar Ice from warm ocean and air is adding to the ocean Atmosphere is warming: Melting polar Ice Does Melting Sea Ice Contribute to Sea Level? What makes sea level change? Is Greenland’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? Is There A Critical Tipping Point? What Can I Do? How Fast Can Sea Level Change? How Much Ice Is There At the Poles? Is Antarctica’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? EXPLORING SEA LEVEL RISE Sea level rise contributions from the Ice Sheets. Antarctica (AIS-blue). Greenland (GrIS-green). Red is the sum. Dashed lines outline uncertainty. YEARLY POLAR MELTWATER CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL RECORD: HOW MUCH WATER IS BEING ADDED TO THE OCEANS FROM POLAR GLACIERS? Cumulative SLR (mm)

14 For every degree the climate warms, we are likely to lock in at least 6 feet of sea level rise—obviously that happens over time, as the melting global ice sheets that will contribute most to the rising oceans are somewhat delayed in responding. Looking at a 4˚ C rise in temperature, something which increasingly looks certain (due to collective inaction to constrain greenhouse gas emissions and a far too-slow effort to transition off fossil fuels), the study found that, over the next two millennia, the melting Antarctic ice sheet will contribute 50 percent of the sea level's rise, melting Greenland will contribute 25 percent, thermal expansion of the oceans contributes 20 percent and melting glaciers account for the remaining 5 percent.melting Antarctic ice sheet Previous researchPrevious research, also coming from the Potsdam Institute, found that if temperatures rise continues past 2˚ C, there's a greater than 50 percent chance that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, causing over 20 feet of sea level rise, over the next 300-1,000 years. Melting in Antarctica contributes less than 10 percent to sea level rise today. The seemingly low amount that glaciers will contribute can be attributed to the study's long-term view of sea level rise – by the time Antarctica is contributing to the sea, half of the world's glaciers will have already melted back to their minimum level.

1.1M = 1100mm 1100 mm / 108 (back to 1992) years = mm/yr 15 Do a little math…