1. Carl Hershner Climate change impacts in Virginia

2. Currently anticipated changes by 2100 Temperature +2 o C to +5 o C –longer growing season Storm frequency may increase –greater soil erosion, nutrient loss potential Precipitation –increase in fall, winter –decrease in summer CO 2 increase – plant growth effects Sea level +3 to +5 ft –salt water intrusion

3. marsh migration into upland

5. Pamunkey River

6. Hill Marsh

7. high marsh community in tidal freshwater

8. low marsh community in tidal freshwater

9. low marsh community in tidal freshwater

10. Sea level changes in Virginia

12. Relative sea level rise in Virginia Global sea level rise (1.7 – 3.6 mm/yr) – Melting ice caps – Warming (expanding) ocean water (0.4 – 1.6 mm/yr) Land sinking (1.1 – 4.8 mm/yr) – Isostatic glacial rebound (1mm/yr) – Local subsidence Ground water withdraw Meteor crater sediment compaction (0mm/yr) Ocean circulation (0.5 – 2 mm/yr) 3.2 3.1 0.5 6.8

13. seasonal ice melting in Greenland 1992 and 2002 areas of ice sheet melting in Antarctica melting ice caps

14. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/ World ocean heat content - top 700 meters warming ocean water

15. glacier 100,000 yrs ago 20,000 yrs ago today isostatic glacial rebound

16. land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawals after Pope and Burbey, 2004

17. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Gulf Stream North Atlantic Current North Atlantic Deep Water

18. 2015 2045 +1.1ft 2065 +2.2ft

19. Currently anticipated changes by 2100 Temperature +2 o C to +5 o C –longer growing season Storm frequency may increase –greater soil erosion, nutrient loss potential Precipitation –increase in fall, winter –decrease in summer CO 2 increase – plant growth effects Sea level +3 to +5 ft –salt water intrusion

21. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html

23. www.climatewizard.org

24. 24 Source: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts Change in Precipitation Patterns Intense precipitation events (the heaviest 1%) in the continental U.S. increased by 20% over the past century while total precipitation increased by 7%. FLOODS 24

25. Projected Change in Precipitation Source: USGCRP Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States DROUGHT 25

26. http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/almanac/arc2010/alm10jul.htm

28. Carl Hershner Virginia Institute of Marine Science College of William and Mary carl@vims.edu