Building a Strategy for Combating Terrorism

“We have to fight terrorists as if there were no rules, and preserve our open society as if there were no terrorists.” Thomas Friedman Journalist

What is Strategy? A way of getting something done The calculated relationship among ends, ways, and means A bridge between policy and operations Security Strategy: How to use force to achieve a political objective - at an acceptable cost

Levels of Strategy Technical Tactical Operational Political Strategy operates in two dimensions: –Horizontal –Vertical

Israel-PA Case Level of Strategy IsraelPalestinian Authority Technicalarmor/ combat aircraft small arms/ explosives Tacticalassault/block/ siege suicide bombing Operationalpre-emptive, punitive provocation, attrition Politicalsettlements, citizen security intifada, int’l support

Preconditions for Successful Strategy Development Civilian and military leaders define threats to the nation’s interests Picking the right paradigm (coercive-diplomacy, war, or new-world) Clear goals and objectives Understanding of Strategy Strategic guidance to operational elements Resources (“tools”) Time

Preconditions for Successful Strategy Implementation Clear, well-coordinated strategy Civilian and military organizations ready International support Functioning interagency process Popular support Political will is the most difficult element.

‘Net Assessment’ A method of analyzing the enemy situation The comparative analysis of all factors governing the military capabilities of a nation and its competitors Answers the following questions: –What are the long-term strengths and weaknesses of our forces and enemy forces? –How will these affect our ability to compete in the short- and long-term? ‘Asymmetric Warfare’ works both ways

Elements of Successful Strategy Variety of government tools Results of Net Assessment Defend citizens and property Disrupt ongoing terrorist operations Defeat existing terrorist groups Deter future terrorism Diminish root causes of terrorism

A Three-Part Approach Core Strategy –Long-term effort to address root-causes and prevent catastrophic acts of terrorism Environment Shaping Strategy –Short and mid-term efforts to go after terrorist threats Hedging Strategy –Assessment and protection of vulnerabilities

The Combating Terrorism Cycle: Success Scenario Prevention Targeting Punishment Intelligence

Failure Scenario Attack Consequence Management Retaliation Intelligence

Terrorist ‘Centers of Gravity’ Recruitment Finances Logistic Support Training Command and Control Leadership Unit Cohesion Sanctuary

Working the Cycle Center of Gravity PreventionTargetingPunishment Recruitment Finances Logistics Support Training

Working the Cycle (cont’d) Center of Gravity PreventionTargetingPunishment Command and Control Leadership Unit Cohesion Sanctuary

‘Netwar’ Information technology favors the formation of networks over hierarchies Chain, Star, or All-Channel configurations Blurring of Offense and Defense –governments have difficulty assigning responsibility among agencies –terrrorists operate in the cracks between jusrisdictons “It takes networks to fight networks”

Areas of Government Concern Domestic Demands –When should governments make concessions? –What if the demands are impossible to meet? Police Action –How to infiltrate terrorist organizations? –How to balance security and liberty for all? International Issues –Change international law –Improve cooperative mechanisms –States take action (individually or collectively)

Important Principles Be proactive as well as reactive Use the whole spectrum of tools Analyze both short- and long-term consequences of all actions Coordinate within national government Seek international support Clarify military roles and missions

More Principles Keep all citizens informed Preserve government legitimacy Beware “unintended consequences” Think “out of the box” Keep terrorists on the run (strike, strangle, surround, sustain) Plan for a long campaign

Desired ‘Endstate’ A world free of organized terrorism as a legitimate means of social change A wide range of national and international mechanisms to defeat terrorism Terrorism reduced to a level where it becomes an isolated and sporadic criminal activity - confined to the territory of individual states.

Conclusion Strategy integrates policy and operations Civilians must understand military operations Military officers must understand politics Terrorism is a political problem requiring a political solution –Military component of strategy is determining how to achieve political aims with force