Democratization By Sam Dembling

Democracy and its Variants Democracy - Government by, of and for the people in which all citizens have a say in which leaders are chosen. Procedural Democracy - Free and fair elections. Minimum. Substantive Democracy - Procedural + civil liberties and political rights. Illiberal Democracy - Elections but lack of civil liberties and elections may be unfair. Managed Democracy - Democracy that leans towards autocracy.

Democratization Democratization - Transformation from Nondemocratic to Procedural then *possibly* to Substantive. Three Waves of Democratization-  1 st Wave - Late 19 th century to late 1920’s. Western Europe.  2 nd Wave - Post WWII to 1960’s. Colonies in Africa, Asia, and Caribbean.  3 rd Wave - Late 1970’s to mid 1990’s. First Southern Europe, then Latin America/Asia, then collapse of Soviet Union, then Africa.  4 th Wave? - Arab Spring once hailed as fourth wave. But, well…

Preconditions: Modernization Modernization - Process of moving from a traditional, agriculture based society to a modern, industry or service based society. Traditional: Modern:

Preconditions: Level of Economic Development Modernization - Often brings democracy. Better infrastructure (roads), communication (newspaper, radio, television). Mass education needed for citizenry to learn how to use new technology. Employment shift from agriculture to industry to services. Changing age demographics—longer lives—more concern for the elderly. *Better economy= less polarization of resources.*

Preconditions: History of Democracy History of Democracy - Predictor of success of democracy: countries w/ long-term experience of it tend to have fuller democracies. Explains why exporting wholesale rarely works. Deeply entrenched Nomenklatura system has enfeebled democracy in Russia.

Preconditions: History of Democracy Senegalese president Macky Sall explains why his country has remained democratic when so many of its neighbors have failed: 1) History of voting under colonial role beginning in ) Semi-presidential, only “one chief executive”, precludes “tensions that can end in coups.” (think South Sudan)

Preconditions: International Environment of Democracy 3 Ways Other Countries Influence Political Transitions: 1) Prohibit or Impose Democracy- Ex: Post-WWII, Russia prohibits democracy; US/Western powers impose it. US in Iraq/Afghanistan.

International Environment of Democracy 2) Prestige - How attractive is democracy? Ex: Fascism in depressed 1930’s, communism in growing 1950’s/60’s Soviet Union, and authoritarianism in disillusioned modern Africa. Paul Kagame’s successful “benevolent dictatorship” of Rwanda has gained the admiration of other African countries.

International Environment of Democracy 3) Incentives - Economic rewards for becoming democratic. Ex: EU is most obvious example. PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain— Italy sometimes included) inspired by economic prospects.

Authoritarian Breakdown: Top-Down May transition from five broad types of authoritarianism: 1) Top-Down Transition - Democracy is implemented by the govt. Usually requires long negotiation between opposing forces in govt Glorious Revolution part of slow top-down evolution of British democracy.

Authoritarian Breakdown: Top-Down Cont. Top-down transitions can be engineered by external powers. US has intervened to create (or sometimes destroy) democracies: Iraq, Afghanistan. The current Iraqi parliament.

Authoritarian Breakdown: Bottom-Up 2) Bottom-Up Democratization - Enacted by citizenry. Ex: Soviet Union and its “satellite states” in 1980’s/90’s. Typically triggered by mass demonstration—sometimes violence. Rebels often must be willing to negotiate/compromise.  Yeltsin on a tank! Polish leader, Lech Walesa, addresses supporters.

Authoritarian Breakdown: Military Dictatorships 3) Military Dictatorships - Economic conditions may cause fissure in powerful military—potential civil war must be averted. Military criminals often pardoned for crimes. Can be plagued by threat of military resurgence—esp. if linked w/ elites Olusegun Obasanjo, Nigeria Egypt: “About our military…”

Authoritarian Breakdown: Personalistic Regimes 4) Personalistic Regimes - (Cult of Personality) Based on a single leader and his/her personality, alliances, or even ethnic group. Rewards those loyal. Often dissolves when leader dies. Guess who?Muammar Gadaffi, Libya, 2011.

Authoritarian Breakdown: Single Party Rule 5) Single Party Rule - Domination by single party. Can be democratic in name but authoritarian in nature: Russia. Ex: Mexico’s PRI forced to hold multiparty elections by 1994 recession, devaluation of peso—also democracy sweeping Latin America. Often deeply ingrained.

Will It Last? Concept of “transition paradigm” (sequence of democracy) largely rejected. Difficult to prove factors linked w/ democracy. At best, slightly more than tangential. Factors predicting durability of democracy essentially the same as factors that cause democracy: modernization, external pressure, prestige, incentives. Also history of democracy.

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