1. “Third Wave” of Democracy
By Samuel Huntington

2. IS THE THIRD WAVE OVER?
When Huntington wrote his book “The Third Wave” in 1990, the wave was still near its peak.
Today, we look at two articles written after the peak of the wave.
Samuel Huntington “After Twenty Years: The Future of the Third Wave” 1997.
Thomas Carothers “The End of the Transition Paradigm” 2002.

3. HUNTINTON’S WAVES First long wave of democratization 1828-1926
Years
First long wave of democratization
First reverse wave
Second, short wave of democratization
Second reverse wave
Third wave of democratization
1974-

4. THE FIRST LONG WAVE, 1776-1914 1600s-1900 European Enlightenment
Liberalism
Constitutional Monarchies and Republics
Voting Rights for All?
Women Excluded until 20th Century

5. THE FIRST REVERSE WAVE, 1922-1942
End of WWI
Collapse of Tsarist, Ottoman and Austro‐Hungarian Empires and birth of new states (Finland, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Baltic States)
Economic disruption of the Great Depression
Of 17 newly democracies ( ), only 4 remained
Military coups in Italy (1922), Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Greece (1936). Portugal (1926)Brazil (1930), Argentina (1930), Spain (1939), Japan (early-1930s)
Rise of Fascism, ideological and militaristic autocracies

6. THE SECOND WAVE,
End of WWII saw the defeat of Fascism in Italy and Germany; allies promoted democratic constitutions in Germany, Italy, Japan, Austria, Korea
The remaining Colonial powers were shaken and rise of independence movements
Although most newly independent states in Africa adopted democratic constitutions, few consolidated
Some progressive movements and popular elections in Latin America (Uruguay, Brazil, Costa Rica, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela)
Despite some setbacks, the total number of democracies worldwide grew in this period

7. THE SECOND WAVE Post-WWII
Decolonization in Latin America, Asia, Africa
Expanded notions of citizenship and civic participation in the developed world
Europe – Social Rights, Social Democracy
US - Civil Rights Movement

8. THE THIRD WAVE, 1974+ End of Portuguese dictatorship 1974
In Spain, death of Franco 1975
Wave of democratization in Latin America and Asia in late 1970s
In the 1970’s and 80’s the Soviet and Eastern bloc economies came under pressure
Under Gorbachev, the Soviet Union loosened its grip on Central and Eastern Europe. In 1989, practically all of the communist regimes in the region fell
With the support of the EU, some post‐Communist states successfully consolidated their democracies. But many also remain unreconstructed (Eurasia) or poorly consolidated (Georgia, Ukraine).

9. A NEW REVERSE WAVE “Democratic recession” since 2000
Not all of the new democracies have consolidated and some have reversed (e.g., Gambia in 1977, Thailand, Fiji, Kenya, Russia)
Concerns have also been raised about growing apathy and disaffection in consolidated democracies
Only the whole, the latest wave has not come to an end, but shows some signs of weakening and possible reversals.

10. HUNTINGTON’S PROPOSITIONS
No single factor is sufficient to explain the development of democracy
Democratization in each country is the result of a combination of causes
The combination of causes differs for each wave
The causes responsible for the initial regime transition differ from those responsible for democratic consolidation