POWERFUL WEATHER INTELLIGENCE. SWFDDP – South Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities PETER KREFT, CHIEF FORECASTER

POWERFUL WEATHER INTELLIGENCE. Some SWFDDP Goals* To improve the ability of NMHSs to forecast severe weather events Greater awareness of expected significant events More confidence in forecasting these events To improve the lead time alerting of these events Greater lead times being provided More timely warnings issued To improve the interaction of NMHSs with Disaster Management and Civil Protection Authorities (DMCPA) before, during and after severe weather events Most NMHSs appear to have at least some interaction with their corresponding DMCPAs, media or the public * SWFDDP Regional Subproject RA V, Progress Report 7, April 2013

POWERFUL WEATHER INTELLIGENCE. However … Most NMHSs do not have a formal warning system in place No objective verification of warnings has been provided to the Lead RSMC (perhaps unsurprising, given the above)* Very few case studies have been provided to the Lead RSMC Some NMHSs report no interaction with their corresponding DMCPA * 1 November 2012 to 28 February 2013: 1200 South Pacific Guidance charts were produced by RSMC Wellington 87% of these charts contained one or more of heavy rain / strong wind / large waves

POWERFUL WEATHER INTELLIGENCE. Next steps Implement in-country warning system Simplified approach to advising communities about heavy rain, through using alert and warning banners in forecasts and warnings, to be presented at the August RSMT meeting Implement in-country verification system Simple verification method was demonstrated during 2012 in-country training but has not been used yet; to be discussed at August RSMT meeting

POWERFUL WEATHER INTELLIGENCE. Resourcing: RSMC Wellington Operational time: Current operational time committed to Project is all that is available No capacity to accommodate “scope creep” Training: Cost of the substantial amount of staff time (and reasonable amount of travel) required for in-country training will not be met by in-kind contribution … so, future unclear IT development: Resource issues similar to those described above for training In other words, at the RSMC level the Project depends on an on- going source of funding being secured for development activities

POWERFUL WEATHER INTELLIGENCE. Decision time … ? What criteria must a Project meet before it is considered “matured” and therefore ready to be transitioned to “fully operational”? A reasonable time series of verification? Sufficient case work to build a picture of effectiveness? Other? The decision to transition (or not) a project to fully operational status Is partly scientific, as described above Is partly business, since it involves determining the resources required (affordability, sustainability), taking into account the long- term scope of the Project May involve considering other options for delivering the desired outcomes