Dr. Anar Somuncuoğlu

The New World Order End of confrontation Western aid and assistance Washington Consensus

Western Aid and its conditions Operation Provide Hope (Washington Coordinating Conference) that occurred in the winter of , was aimed at “to preserve the promise of freedom in the new independent states” (James Baker, Secretary of State) Lisbon Conference on Assistance to the New Independent States, Portugal, May 24, According to Baker, there were three tasks that should dominate the work at the conference: Taking steps to prevent future humanitarian emergence Focusing technical assistance to support microeconomic and structural reform Beginning consultations on the future of coordinating process According to Baker, the new independent states have a responsibility to accelerate microeconomic and macroeconomic reforms.

Baker’s Principles Self-determination without violence Respect of Borders Support of Democracy Safeguarding of Human Rights Respect for International Law

Washington Consensus “Washington Consensus”- the proposition that the economic reform packages of the Washington based international organizations represent international standards and best practices. Shock therapy: quick liberalisation and structural reforms

The Fall of the Soviet Union Economic crisis Perestroyka, glasnost: political reforms and discontent Disintegration: economic and political struggle between center and the Soviet republics Nationalism and self- determination The collapse of communist ideology

FREEDOM Support Act (October 24, 1992) “The collapse of the Soviet Union provides America with a once-in- a-century opportunity to help freedom take root and flourish in the lands of Russia and Eurasia. Their success in democracy and open markets will directly enhance our national security. The growth of freedom there will create business and investment opportunities for Americans and multiply the opportunities for friendship between our peoples. Just as Democrats and Republicans united together to fight for freedom during the Cold War, we must remain united to win the peace.”

“The "FREEDOM Support Act of 1992" provides a flexible framework to constructively influence the fast- changing and unpredictable events transforming Russia and Eurasia.” (FREEDOM Support Act) According to Baker, the act supports freedom by bolstering reform. The act “will help create opportunities… to all the peoples of the former Soviet Union- and for Americans and American business.” (Baker, “From Cold War to Democratic Peace”)

Clinton’s Security Strategy: engagement and enlargement “If we exert our leadership abroad, we can make America safer and more prosperous — by deterring aggression, by fostering the peaceful resolution of dangerous conflicts, by opening foreign markets, by helping democratic regimes and by tackling global problems.” “Our national security strategy is based on enlarging the community of market democracies while deterring and containing a range of threats to our nation, our allies and our interests. The more that democracy and political and economic liberalization take hold in the world, particularly in countries of geostrategic importance to us, the safer our nation is likely to be and the more our people are likely to prosper.” (NSS 1995)

“Soft Power” “It is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments. It arises from the attractiveness of a country’s culture, political ideals, and policies. When our policies are seen as legitimate in the eyes of others, our soft power is enhanced…When you can get others to admire your ideals and to want you want, you do not have to spend as much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction.” (Joseph S. Nye, Jr.)

Central Asia: different paths Different countries different paths Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan: rapid liberalisation Uzbekistan Path: “step by step” Turkmenistan: old style Tajikistan: political turmoil, and then internal war

The consequences of reforms 1990s: “New Stone Age” A market economy without rule of law Oligarchic structure of Kazakh economy Economic liberalisation by authoritarian means Economic reforms and political reforms Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan: state and economy

American security interests in Central Asia: the beginning, covert operation "According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahideen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise Indeed, it was July 3, 1979 that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention." (Former National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, Interview with Le Nouvel Observateur, January 1998)Former National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, Interview with Le Nouvel Observateur, January 1998)

American Grand Strategy “A state's grand strategy is its plan for making itself secure. Grand strategy identifies the objectives that must be achieved to produce security, and describes the political and military actions that are believed to lead to this goal.” (Stephen Walt) “Since the Second World War, the main objective of U.S. grand strategy has been to prevent territorial expansion by the Soviet Union while avoiding a major war. Although both ends and means have varied over time, the central elements of this strategy-commonly known as "containment”-have been military alliances with Western Europe and Japan and the deployment of U.S. armed forces in Europe and the Far East.” (Stephen Walt)

Reagan Doctrine

1990’s “The highest American priority in Central Asia is Russia. The key American, indeed global, interest is to see Russia evolve as democratic and moderate member of the international community. There can be no return to the Cold War era. American policies in the former Soviet Union must devote priority attention to that goal… It does mean that we need to keep a very clear eye on the nature of relations between Russia and the Central Asia republics…” (Graham Fuller)

Nuclear arms Kazakhstan inherits the world’s fourth largest nuclear arsenal, including 1,040 nuclear warheads for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) of 1 megaton TNT-equivalent each, 104 RS-20 ICBMs (NATO designation SS-18 “Satan”), as well as a squadron of 40 TU-95 heavy bombers armed with Kh- 55 air-land cruise missiles (or ALCMs) (NATO designation AS-15A ‘Kent’) with 370 tactical nuclear warheads.

May 23, 1992: Kazakhstan signs Lisbon Protocol to the Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START I Treaty), by which it renounces possession of nuclear weapons and accepts obligations to ensure nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. December 13, 1993: Kazakhstan’s Parliament ratifies the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. On the same day, in Almaty, President Nursultan Nazarbayev and U.S. Vice President Albert Gore sign the Framework Agreement opening the way toward implementation of the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (Nunn-Lugar program) in Kazakhstan.

Denuclearization as a foreign policy maneuver In February 1994 President Nursultan Nazarbayev presents ratification documents to President Bill Clinton in Washington, DC, by which Kazakhstan formally accedes to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as a nonnuclear- weapon state. Presidents Clinton and Nazarbayev signed the Charter of Democratic Partnership between Kazakhstan and the United States. The Charter proclaimed Kazakhstan’s “security, independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and democratic development” to be matters “of highest importance” for the United States.

December, 1994: The United States of America, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Russian Federation, the states depositories of the NPT Treaty, sign the Memorandum on Security Assurances with Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine, as countries who have renounced nuclear weapons. In short order, France and China, two other nuclear weapons states, provide similar guarantees to Kazakhstan. BUT! Washington’s refusal to provide direct security guarantees for Central Asian states became a lasting feature of the US policies in the region in the 1990s.

The Unites States has assisted Kazakhstan in removal of nuclear warheads and weapons-grade material, as well as providing support for its infrastructure. In 1994, Kazakhstan transferred more than 500 kg of HEU to the United States. In 1995, Kazakhstan removed its last nuclear warhead and, with US assistance, completed the sealing of 181 nuclear test tunnels in May Under the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, the US has spent $240 mln to assist Kazakhstan in eliminating weapons of mass destruction and related infrastructure.

Turkish Model

Second test: Tajik Civil War Tajik Civil War: Russian operation and backing of İmamali Rahmonov US Position Establishment of Russian military presence

Mid-1990’s: Energy pipedreams “200 billion barrels of oil” April 1995: Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State on Assistance to the New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union. 1997: Strobe Tallbot, “Farewell to Flashman”: “the US doesn’t accept spheres of influence in Central Eurasia” July 1998: Special Advisor to the President and the Secretary of State for Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy 1999: “This is not just another oil and gas deal, and this is not just another pipeline," said Energy Secretary Bill Richardson. "It is a strategic framework that advances America's national security interests. It is a strategic vision for the future of the Caspian region."

Regional anchor: Uzbekistan April 1995: US Defense Secretary Perry’s Tashkent visit “Island of stability” Beginning of military cooperation October 1995: Memorandum of Understanding between defense minsitries and establishment of working group June 1996: Uzbek president’s first visit to Washington (calls for military operation) PfP: since 1995, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan

Alarm in Central Asia 1996: Fall of Kabul 1998: Fall of Mazar-i Sharif IMU: From Tavildara to Northern Afghanistan

: IMU terrorist acts February 16, 1999: Tashkent Bombings, 16 killed, 120 injured July-August 1999, August 2000: Batken incursions, hostage crises The US classifies IMU as a foreign terrorist organisation

1991: Radical Salafi group Adolat Juma Namangani AND Afghanistan Adolat assumed civil authority in Namangan Calls for imposing of Sharia law in all Uzbekistan Karimov and centralisation : Tavildara, establishment of ties with Osama bin Laden 2000: basing in Afghanistan

1999: Uzbekistan leaves CST, joines GUAM End of 1999: Uzbekistan participates in CST trainings 2000: Uzbekistan expresses a desire to join the Shanghai Five 2001: Establishment of SCO

August 20, 1998: American tomohawk cruise missile attack on Afghanistan October 1999: Central Asia was included into Centcom area of responsibility Spring 2000: CIA and FBI directors visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Central Asian Border Security Initiative Plans for a military operation against Taliban and Al Qaida Uzbekistan agrees to provide bases No action

Minimum of American FP Support of market economy: diplomatic support, aid and assistance (USAID, advisers) Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: “pro-reform countries” Democracy Promotion (USAID, National Endowment for Democracy, NDI, IRI, other NGO’s)

Democracy Promotion In 1999, congressional concerns led to passage of the “Silk Road Strategy Act” (P.L ), which authorized enhanced policy and aid to support conflict amelioration, humanitarian needs, economic development, transport and communications, border controls, democracy, and the creation of civil societies in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Frustration with Central Asians Push for democracy assistance After 9/11: increase of funds for democracy promotion to Central Asia

Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan Internal factors: poverty, corruption, nepotism, soft- authoritarian rule Exteranal factors: struggle for power in the region The US Embassy provided a printing press for opposition, USAID proivided political training for ALL political parties, supported independent local media After revolution: diplomatic support