The All Hazards Risk Assessment Presentation to the Risk Assessment User Group Wednesday, January 9, 2013 The All Hazards Risk Assessment Presentation to the Risk Assessment User Group Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Outline of the Presentation ● Background of the AHRA ● Principles of the Government of Canada’s All Hazards Risk Assessment (AHRA) initiative ● Demonstrate utility of using an all hazards approach ­ Science and technological integration ­ Results from the previous cycles ● The AHRA process ­ AHRA Taxonomy ­ AHRA Methodology ­ Outputs from the AHRA ● Heat maps ● Fiche 1

2 ● In 2007, Emergency Management Act (EMA) passed: ­ Ministers must identify risks within their area of responsibility, prepare plans and maintain, test, implement and exercise those emergency management plans ● In 2007, DRDC CSS began exploring the development of an AHRA ● In 2009, Public Safety began championing the initiative and leads: ­ An interdepartmental consultation to better understand the risk assessment environment ­ A two-year pilot project to develop an AHRA ● In 2011, Assistant Deputy Minister (ADM) safety and security level committee is briefed on status of AHRA: ­ Results of the pilot are provided ­ Approval to proceed with second spiral/cycle of assessments is granted ● In Winter 2012 results were presented and endorsed by ADM – EMC members Background – AHRA

3 Principles – All Hazards Risk Assessment (AHRA) q Purpose Support effective EM planning in federal institutions through coordinated approach to risk assessment – articulates the Federal Policy for Emergency Management and complements the EM Planning Guide. q Federal Scope Supports Ministers in meeting their legislative responsibility under the EM Act to identify risks within or related to their mandate and develop EM plans in respect of those risks. All Hazards Approach A mechanism for assessing and comparing all hazards regardless of the source or vector (whether malicious or non-malicious). Integrated Approach Provides a Government of Canada picture rather than an individual perspective from each department – supports federal priority setting and Public Safety’s leadership coordination role.

A Collaboratively Developed Methodology ● Inspired by risk assessment approaches undertaken by the United Kingdom and the Netherlands ● During the methodology development stage and the pilot process, PS engaged 26 federal institutions ● Smaller working groups have been developed to: ­ Determine scenarios to address ­ Validate results ­ Work on specific aspects of the methodology ● Buy in from federal institutions was key and provided legitimacy for the process ● PS relies on experts from federal institutions who are “closest” to the Impact Category to provide an assessments of the scenario ● Institutions CAN modify the methodology to meet their own planning needs. 4

CLASSIFICATION Process – AHRA Risk Taxonomy 5

6 Methodology - Government of Canada AHRA Process

AHRA Methodology – Impact Categories Impact Assessment Impact Assessment People Economy Environment Territorial Security Territorial Security Canada’s Reputation & Influence Canada’s Reputation & Influence Society & Psycho-social

8 AHRA Methodology – Likelihood / Probability Through elicitation, experts provide qualitative judgment by considering overall capability (technical feasibility and enabling capabilities) and intent. Confidence level recorded. Calibration process follows. Likelihood for malicious scenarios Quantitative approach by which experts draw on historical data to determine the probability. Confidence level recorded. Likelihood for natural/accidental hazards Likelihood assessment ­ Two approaches to determine likelihood are used:

Methodology - AHRA Risk Scoring Tool ● An Excel-based spreadsheet was developed to record discussions and impact assessments from federal experts. 9

10 AHRA Business Cycle

Process - Output AHRA Heat Map 11 Risk results for six scenarios aggregated across six impact categories People Economy Environment Canada’s reputation and influence Territorial security Society and psycho-social ­

Process - Output AHRA Scenario Fiche 12 Brief scenario description Collaborative rating of scenario impacts and likelihood Analysis of scenario outcome &graph demonstrating confidence levels

Leveraging the AHRA to inform: AHRA EM policy & program development Emergency management planning Security & intelligence National and international collaboration Training, exercises, lessons learned Long Term Objective: A National Risk Assessment that identifies risks to Canada and enhances the safety and security of Canadians. Product: National Risk Register Informing and validating SEMPs Explore Expanding AHRA to National Scope Assessing Capabilities Current Scope 2012/13

Lessons Learned and Leading Practices ● Lessons Learned: ­ Engage experts early and frequently in development and validation of methodology – builds credibility. ­ But, be prepared to bring development of methodology to a close and commit to update it on an annual basis – satisfies scientists that new techniques can be incorporated and lets process move forward. ­ Promote ownership through multilevel governance process that engages scientists/experts as well as senior managers – let colleagues be your ambassadors. ­ Provide a road map for partners – hard to do when process is new but keeps everyone on board. ­ Don’t let data gaps stop you – create a “parking lot” for new ideas and assign a lead. ● Lessons Learned: ­ Engage experts early and frequently in development and validation of methodology – builds credibility. ­ But, be prepared to bring development of methodology to a close and commit to update it on an annual basis – satisfies scientists that new techniques can be incorporated and lets process move forward. ­ Promote ownership through multilevel governance process that engages scientists/experts as well as senior managers – let colleagues be your ambassadors. ­ Provide a road map for partners – hard to do when process is new but keeps everyone on board. ­ Don’t let data gaps stop you – create a “parking lot” for new ideas and assign a lead. ● Leading Practices: ­ Work through networks to identify the right experts for risk scenarios and risk scoring – experts wanted to be involved and never said “no”. ­ Be prepared: Experts did research beforehand and came to workshops with data in hand. ­ Let experts decide: Brought intelligence community together to develop methodology for assessing likelihood of malicious threats. ­ Sought formal feedback at each stage of process in order to course correct and improve it in subsequent years. ­ Knowledge transfer: Federal organizations using AHRA Methodology to conduct additional risk assessments and upload their results to whole-of-government process. ● Leading Practices: ­ Work through networks to identify the right experts for risk scenarios and risk scoring – experts wanted to be involved and never said “no”. ­ Be prepared: Experts did research beforehand and came to workshops with data in hand. ­ Let experts decide: Brought intelligence community together to develop methodology for assessing likelihood of malicious threats. ­ Sought formal feedback at each stage of process in order to course correct and improve it in subsequent years. ­ Knowledge transfer: Federal organizations using AHRA Methodology to conduct additional risk assessments and upload their results to whole-of-government process. 14

Success Stories ● AHRA Methodology ­ Health Portfolio ● Scenarios ­ Various Federal Exercises ● Collaboration - Collaboration with experts across federal organizations ­ Collaboration with CSS ­ Outreach activities ­ SEMP International ­ DRM Framework deliverable for G20 Finance Ministers 15

16 Proposed Forward Approach for AHRA Expand AHRA for Capability Assessment Pilot Capability Assessment with a select number of scenarios Step 1: Environmental Scan Step 2: Risk Assessment Step 3: Capability Assessment Step 4: Recommended Options Explore expanding the scope of the AHRA beyond the federal community to include P/Ts and/or regions Explore expanding AHRA in select P/Ts or regions

17 Connie Cheung Senior Policy Advisor Emergency Management and Planning Division Julie Cranton Chief, AHRA and IDO Emergency Management and Planning Division