A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies Marten Westrup European Commission, DG ENER Unit A1 Energy

Proposals for the 2030 framework for climate and energy policies The 2030 framework will build on the 2050 Roadmaps - Concrete proposals by the end of 2013 2050 Roadmaps 2030 Green Paper Proposals for the 2030 framework for climate and energy policies 2011 March 2013 By end 2013 On-going discussions with Member States, EU institutions and stakeholders

More Energy Efficiency Higher shares of Renewables "No Regrets" options from the Energy Roadmap 2050 More Energy Efficiency Higher shares of Renewables Better and smarter Infrastructure

Early agreement on the 2030 framework is essential Increased certainty for Member States and reduced regulatory risks for investors Growth and jobs through demand for efficient and low-carbon technologies Definition of EU ambitions in view of a new international climate change agreement

Security of energy supply The 2030 framework must ensure progress towards three objectives Sustainability Security of energy supply Competitiveness Reduction of emissions Diversification of energy sources, supply countries and routes Affordable and competitive prices Grid Stability Reduction of energy consumption Promotion of new technologies, growth and jobs Development of alternative energy sources Adequate energy infrastructures Improved energy efficiency The 2030 policy framework should take into account lesson learnt from the 2020 framework and the economic and political context of today

GHG emissions are decreasing in the EU compared to other countries EU emissions reduced by 15.5% 1990 -2010 EU GDP grew >40% EU as a whole on track towards 20% target For half of the MS, existing policies and measures are sufficient to reach their Effort Sharing target domestically Source: European Commission

The EU is making good progress towards meeting the 2020 RES target - But most Member States are still some distance away Source: Eurostat Renewable sources accounted for 12.7% of the EU's energy consumption in 2010

EU energy consumption is going down, but 2020 target likely to be missed with current policies projections Source: European Commission

Challenges in meeting 2020 targets - to be considered in the 2030 framework Increasing concern about energy import dependency and rising energy prices Stability and costs of renewables support schemes, impacts on the internal energy market, on grid stability and on capital allocation Need for massive investments in energy transmission and distribution infrastructure, e.g. due to renewables expansion Current large surplus of ETS allowances, resulting in a low carbon price and low investment incentives

Competitiveness & Security of Supply These are the main issues to be considered for the 2030 framework Targets Which targets for 2030 would be most effective in driving the objectives of climate and energy policy? At what level should they apply (EU, MS, sectors?), and should they be legally binding? Instruments Which are the most appropriate policy instruments to meet potential new targets for the period up to 2030? How can Research and Innovation best support the 2030 framework? Competitiveness & Security of Supply How can EU policies take account of international developments? E.g. Climate negotiations How can internationally competitive and affordable energy prices be ensured? Effort Sharing How can an equitable distribution of efforts be ensured among Member States? How to best consider the different investment capacities of industry sectors and consumer groups?

Electricity prices – the US is increasing its advantage… Evolution of end-user electricity prices for industry (2005 = Index 100) Source: IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes, 4th quarter 2012

…in part due to the shale gas boom - US wholesale prices for gas are 3-4 times lower than in the EU Source: European Commission 12

Source of data: Eurostat Retail electricity prices paid by households and industry in 2012 Note: Euro/kWh, first half of 2012, consumption bands DC and IC, all taxes included Source of data: Eurostat

Building on the past towards the future….! 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11/2010 Commission Communication "Energy 2020 Strategy" 01/2007 Commission proposal for 2020 climate and energy package 12/ 2008 Heads of State and Government reached agreement on the package 03/ 2013 Adoption of the Energy Infrastructure Regulation 12/2011 Commission Communication "Energy Roadmap 2050" 03/2013 2030 Green Paper 07/2009 Adoption of the 3rd package on the Liberalization of electricity and gas market More concrete proposals for the 2030 framework 04/2009 Adoption of the Renewables Directive 10/2012 Adoption of the Energy Efficiency Directive Window of opportunity 11/2012 Commission Communication "Internal Energy Market" 2015 Global Climate Change Agreement = EU legislation = Commission Communications = Council Counclusions

Concrete steps towards the 2030 framework in 2013 2012 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Adoption of the Green Paper consultation procedure 22-24 April Informal 22 May European Council 19-20 Sept Informal 19- 20 Dec. Energy Council Council meetings Update of reference scenario Impact Assessment Before end 2013 Commission proposals for the 2030 framework

Thank you for your attention! More information available under: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/green_paper_2030_en.htm