Steve Weber UC Berkeley What are the goals of theory? To understand To predict To influence To control

Steve Weber UC Berkeley To build a theory…... Categorization What information is relevant? What information can you ignore? Description is never just description

Steve Weber UC Berkeley Correlation is not causality Statistics explain nothing If we understand the process, we can understand the conditions under which it will happen.

Steve Weber UC Berkeley Theories do: Explanation Prediction Prescription

Steve Weber UC Berkeley How do you know if a theory is ‘valid’? Testing Evaluation Faith = BAD

Steve Weber UC Berkeley The Classical Physics Model Fundamental determinants of phenomenon Small number of variables Clearly defined relationships between them Measurable! Parsimony is a good thing

Steve Weber UC Berkeley The Social Science Challenge Equifinality and Multifinality Hard to measure variables Sets of theories or contingent generalizations require boundary conditions: when do they apply and when don’t they? »Progress is about moving from probabilistic statements to contingent statements

Steve Weber UC Berkeley So what’s a ‘good’ theory? Accuracy Parsimony Causality Heuristic Value