Climate databases and Forecasting Systems in the Caribbean Adrian Trotman Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

Small climate sensitive economies that often lack significant diversity and are susceptible to economic shocks;Small climate sensitive economies that often lack significant diversity and are susceptible to economic shocks; –Agriculture and service based economics with the exception being Trinidad and Tobago which has a petroleum based economy Inter-related economies;Inter-related economies; Many small island states with small populations that are predominantly coastal;Many small island states with small populations that are predominantly coastal; Many states have low GDPs and small tax basesMany states have low GDPs and small tax bases Several water scarce islandsSeveral water scarce islands Complex inter-related environmental hazards and highly vulnerable populationsComplex inter-related environmental hazards and highly vulnerable populations –Hazards include hurricane, drought, flood, earthquake, tsunami and landslides among other Susceptibility to climate change and climate variabilitySusceptibility to climate change and climate variability Challenges to Sustainable Development in the CMO Member States

Over the last three decades, the Caribbean region has suffered direct and indirect losses estimated at between USD 700 million to USD 3.3 billion due to extreme weather events;Over the last three decades, the Caribbean region has suffered direct and indirect losses estimated at between USD 700 million to USD 3.3 billion due to extreme weather events; The World Bank in a 2009 report determined that the cumulative annual impact of future climate change on all CARICOM Member and Associate Member States by ca will be approximately USD 11.2 billion which represents 11.3 percent of the projected cumulative GDP of USD 99.3 billion (all estimates referenced to 2007 USD prices);The World Bank in a 2009 report determined that the cumulative annual impact of future climate change on all CARICOM Member and Associate Member States by ca will be approximately USD 11.2 billion which represents 11.3 percent of the projected cumulative GDP of USD 99.3 billion (all estimates referenced to 2007 USD prices); –The most significant contributors to the future annual cost of impacts are expected to be direct losses due to climate change related disasters USD 4.9 billion (of which USD 2.6 billion are expected to result from wind storm damage, USD million from flood damage and USD 447 million from loss in tourism revenues) and loss of tourist expenditure due to temperature rise which is expected to be approximately USD 4 billion. SUPPORTING RISK REDUCTION AND SUPPORTING SUSTAINABLE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MUST BE THE FOCUS OF CMOSUPPORTING RISK REDUCTION AND SUPPORTING SUSTAINABLE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MUST BE THE FOCUS OF CMO Challenges to Sustainable Development in the CMO Member States

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

CMC CIMH CMO HU CMF Caribbean Meteorological Organization Caribbean Meteorological Council (CMC)Caribbean Meteorological Council (CMC) Caribbean Meteorological Organization – Headquarters Unit (CMO-HU)Caribbean Meteorological Organization – Headquarters Unit (CMO-HU) Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology (CIMH)Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology (CIMH) Caribbean Meteorological Foundation (CMF)Caribbean Meteorological Foundation (CMF) Organs

CIMH MANDATE … to assist in improving and developing the Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as providing the awareness of the benefits of Meteorology and Hydrology for the economic well-being of the CIMH member states. This is achieved through training, research, investigations and the provision of related specialized services and advice.

Caribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI) established August 23, 1967 under special funding from UNDP and WMOCaribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI) established August 23, 1967 under special funding from UNDP and WMO –16 Caribbean States that comprise the Caribbean Meteorological Council were entrusted with the responsibility of managing CMI CMI becomes affiliated with UWI in 1973CMI becomes affiliated with UWI in 1973 –B.Sc. in Meteorology established in Faculty of Natural Sciences CMI designated by WMO as a Regional Meteorological Training Centre in 1978 (new designation RTC)CMI designated by WMO as a Regional Meteorological Training Centre in 1978 (new designation RTC) Caribbean Operational Hydrology Institute (COHI) established in 1982 and located at CMI... COHI subsequently brought under CMI in 1987Caribbean Operational Hydrology Institute (COHI) established in 1982 and located at CMI... COHI subsequently brought under CMI in 1987 Name of CMI changed to Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology in 1999Name of CMI changed to Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology in 1999 CIMH HISTORY

Anguilla, Antigua and BarbudaAnguilla, Antigua and Barbuda BarbadosBarbados BelizeBelize British Virgin IslandsBritish Virgin Islands Cayman IslandsCayman Islands DominicaDominica GrenadaGrenada GuyanaGuyana Jamaica Jamaica Montserrat Montserrat St. Kitts/Nevis St. Kitts/Nevis St. Lucia St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines St. Vincent and the Grenadines Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad and Tobago Turks and Caicos Islands Turks and Caicos Islands CMC MEMBER STATES

Train various categories of meteorological and hydrological personnel Train various categories of meteorological and hydrological personnel Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences Data collection, storage, & dissemination Data collection, storage, & dissemination Maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments Maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments Advise regional governments on matters related to meteorology & hydrology Advise regional governments on matters related to meteorology & hydrology Provide consulting services to industry Provide consulting services to industry PRIMARY FUNCTIONS

Regional Instrument Calibration Laboratory Regional Instrument Calibration Laboratory – Establishment of the instruments calibration lab established in 2007 Sea Level Monitoring and Equipment Maintenance Sea Level Monitoring and Equipment Maintenance – CIMH currently involved in redevelopment of sea level monitoring stations across the Caribbean – CIMH will be responsible for maintenance of several of these stations Support for International Research and Development Projects (NASA, U. Miami, Max Planck Institute and CCCCC)Support for International Research and Development Projects (NASA, U. Miami, Max Planck Institute and CCCCC) Instrument installation (lidar and small radar systems)Instrument installation (lidar and small radar systems) Monitoring and MaintenanceMonitoring and Maintenance Regional Maintenance/Support Regional Maintenance/Support – CIMH continues to support requests from regional meteorological office and governments Research and DevelopmentResearch and Development Developed a data-logger and rain gauge recording system (hardware and software customizable to client needs)Developed a data-logger and rain gauge recording system (hardware and software customizable to client needs) Instrument Calibration and Maintenance

Historically primarily precipitation data were collected by the agricultural communityHistorically primarily precipitation data were collected by the agricultural community –24-hr rainfall datasets can still be found in most countries. –Fairly good spatial distribution of measuring stations. –Remaining data often on paper records. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services often manage few stations with often poor spatial resolution.National Meteorological and Hydrological Services often manage few stations with often poor spatial resolution. –Underfunding often limits the temporal resolution of these datasets. –Much of the historical data is in the form of paper records. –Several meteorological parameters measured –Data often of sufficient quality to be entered into global climate databases –Quality management systems weak. Miscellaneous StakeholdersMiscellaneous Stakeholders –National Ministries –Private companies –Systems set up for specific purposes which limits the use of the data –Data often difficult to get a hold of Evolution of Climate Data Gathering in the Caribbean

Sources of dataSources of data –National Meteorology and Hydrology Services remain the primary sources of data in each country Widest variety of dataWidest variety of data Collection net work is often spatially limitedCollection net work is often spatially limited Reliance on other stakeholders for dataReliance on other stakeholders for data Historical data often in hard-copy form making it difficult to useHistorical data often in hard-copy form making it difficult to use Robust Quality Management System often not enforcedRobust Quality Management System often not enforced –Other government ministries Ministries of Agriculture and Environment often manage climate and environmental data collections and databasesMinistries of Agriculture and Environment often manage climate and environmental data collections and databases Often these data are not contributed to the national database controlled by the agencies but in some cases may be acquired on requestOften these data are not contributed to the national database controlled by the agencies but in some cases may be acquired on request Robust Quality Management System often not enforcedRobust Quality Management System often not enforced Collection systems may not often meet WMO standards and, as a result, the data cannot be contributed to international climate databasesCollection systems may not often meet WMO standards and, as a result, the data cannot be contributed to international climate databases –Corporate Entities and NGOs Often have small networks which may not conform to WMO standardsOften have small networks which may not conform to WMO standards Poor information as to the existence of the networkPoor information as to the existence of the network Data not often sharedData not often shared Data Availability

Failure of several countries to archive data at CIMHFailure of several countries to archive data at CIMH Costs associated with data collection and archiving systemsCosts associated with data collection and archiving systems –Data collection, archiving and quality assurance at CIMH is approximately USD 250, –Most of these costs are not recoverable –As more databases are added costs will increase –Sustainability of the system is susceptible to budgetary shortfalls at CIMH A more strategic approach to data collection, archiving and quality assurance at CIMHA more strategic approach to data collection, archiving and quality assurance at CIMH Challenges to Data Archiving at CIMH

Meteorological Data Archiving in the Caribbean Why collect and archive? What is the importance of archived data?Why collect and archive? What is the importance of archived data? –Better understand the climatology of the region to support sectoral planning (e.g., agriculture, water resources planning, insurance, etc) –Support for global climate databases (e.g., GCOS) –Support engineering designs (e.g., drainage design to support flood mitigation) –Environmental change detection –Supports design of alternative systems and energy mix

Data Rescue Hard copy and electronic data Central Archive at CIMH

Weather and Climate Forecasting and Monitoring Systems

The Cycle of Disaster Management

Short Term Up to seven days as produced by national Weather Services Tuesday Partly cloudy with some scattered showers mainly during the morning. 31/26° Wednesday Fair to partly Cloudy with some scattered showers. 31/26 Thursday Cloudy with scattered showers.30/25° Friday Cloudy with scattered showers.30/25 Tues, 15 June Wed 16 June What are the implications for agriculture? Thur, 17 June Fri, 18 June

Tropical Cyclones/Strong Winds Agricultural losses from strong winds and flooding For some crops can have severe damage from winds of tropical depression strength – DOES NOT NEED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE

Advanced Flood Forecasting Weather Research Forecasting model Outputs : atmospheric variables at all levels of the troposphere; the state of the atmosphere at different times in the future Forecasting tool : –Provides simulations on different spatial scales –Real-time forecasting out a fortnight –Can be altered to better represent the tropical atmosphere –Regional climate scenarios HydroGeoSphere (Hydrological Model) Outputs : Water depths; SW/GW flows; GW saturations; Concentrations Water resources management tool –Flood forecasting –Simulate impact of contaminant transport –Simulate climate change scenarios scenarios –Real time monitoring

Work in progress Haiti recovery efforts WRF Outputs superimposed onto watershed map of Haiti WRF Outputs superimposed onto 2D surface map

Seasonal Seasonal rainfall outlook produced every two months for a lead time of three months To be enhanced through the Re-establishment of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum, June, 2010 Barbados Not only rainfall, but includes temperatures and sea conditions, hurricane season etc

Seasonal Outlook/forecast also used to aid in other forecasts… …e.g. drought Caribbean Drought and Precipitation monitoring Network Station 1 mth3 mth6 mth12 mthProbability VC Bird Antigua CIMH Barbados Point Saline Grenada

Some impacts of Drought 25 % loss in onion crop, 30 % loss in tomato crop in Antigua Prices of Tomatoes rose from $2.35/ pound in Feb 2010 to $6.00/ pound in Mar Hydro power contribution in St. Vincent dropped from 28.69% in Feb 2009 to 12.01% in Feb 2010 Flow at Mirabeau, Grenada was 60 % below average In Trinidad Caroni Arena lake % of capacity In Trinidad because of lack water for sanitation of livestock cases of Mastitsis As of February 22nd the Mona Reservoir was down to 40% of capacity while the Hermitage Dam was down to 34% of capacity. Record bush fires all across the Caribbean

Increases in temperature Decline in rainfall totals of up to 15 to 20 % by 2100 More intense rainfall events Saline intrusion into water supplies, salinisation of soils Increased number of major hurricanes All of concern to agricultural risk management Climate Change

Longer term goal Comprehensive weather and climate related EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative

CAMI Funded by the European Unions ACP Science and Technology Programme Partnership between CIMH (Applicant), WMO, CARDI, Ten Meteorological Services

Cost of Action The total cost of the Action is estimated at 1,112, EURO The Contracting Authority undertakes to finance a maximum of 720, EURO, equivalent to 64.74% of the estimated total eligible cost of the action

Ten National Meteorological Services Guyana Trinidad and Tobago Grenada St. Vincent and the Grenadines Barbados St. Lucia Dominica Antigua and Barbuda Jamaica Belize

The overarching objective of the Action is to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information using an integrated and coordinated approach.

Specific Activities of the Action Development of predictors of the rainy season potential characteristics through analysis of long-term climatic data and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction models Interpretation of the climate predictor and near- real time weather information to support management decisions, especially irrigation scheduling Working with the agricultural research and extension agencies in developing an effective pest and disease forecasting system

Specific Activities of the Action Preparation and wide diffusion of a user-friendly weather and climate information newsletter for the farming community Organization of regular forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information Building capacity of the Meteorological and Agricultural Services and research institutions