Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

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Presentation transcript:

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik OPNet Oslo, May 2011

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Heading Oil drift simulations using two different resolutions Red 4 km model Blue 1.5 km model 32 hour after accident At noon on Aug 1

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Oslofjord (300m) and Skag (1.5km). 18 Feb at 00:00

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Regional models and model areas Topaz: MyOcean Arctic Monitoring and Forecasting ROMS 4 km: regional use ROMS Norkyst 800: Coastal applications

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 OSI SAF, Satellite derived SST (7 days accumulated) and ROMS 4 temperature Shall be capable of utilizing available observations, in particular satellite data

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 NOAA19, channel 1,2,3. May 5, 2011

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 met.no Sea Ice service analysis, may 5, 2011

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Satellite derived SST in the 9. May 2011

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 High resolution model: Norkyst 800

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Eddy shedding in the model. Daily mean surface currents for May 3 - 8, 2010, in the ocean west of Lofoten

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 NWP, regional models, HIRLAM 8 and UM 1 km Rely on high quality atmospheric forcing, Best possible NWP weather forecast s

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Future direction: Coupling of ocean forecast / wave forecast and weather forecast models to optimize the description of the fluxes in the boundary layer.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Experience with coupling atmosphere - wave Average differences in fluxes of sensible heat 3 months of HIRLAM - WAM coupled / no coupled Cold air outbreak-> Rougher wind sea -> Increased heat flux Sætra and Køltzow (IPY results)

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May year storm surge simulations Control run with stress calculated from Large and Pond Experiment using stresses from wave model Verification against sea level observations From Sætra, Albretsen and Janssen 2007 (JPO)‏ Experience with coupling wave - ocean

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Information- and data- access for users Make information: snapshots and data easy available through modern web interface