1. Meteorologisk institutt met.no LEO Long-term effects of oil accidents on the pelagic ecosystem of the Norwegian and Barents Seas Yvonne Gusdal

2. Meteorologisk institutt met.no Future oil production accident can be very harmful on the fish stocks –Barents Sea Cod –egg / larvae (passive particles) Egg, larvae and oil trajectories can be simulated by using an advection model forced by currents –Egg an larvae drift is computed based on a semi-Lagrange advection model (Arne Melsom). –Oil drift is simulated based on the oil drift model at the Meteorological Institute

3. Meteorologisk institutt met.no The impact of the oil accident on the fish eggs/ fish larvae are dependent on: –Sea conditions –Spawning location –Spawning period –Oil spill location/ spill period

4. Meteorologisk institutt met.no LEO - area

5. Meteorologisk institutt met.no Sea conditions Currents and hydrography are obtained from a coupled model system consisting of the ocean model MI-POM and the ice model MI-IM. –Area: The Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea –Simulation period: 1986 - 1995 –Resolution: 4km –Interpolated to a mesh size of 8km

6. Meteorologisk institutt met.no To provide the best possible description of drift pathways of oil and fish eggs, we have to include the non-deterministic variability in the ocean A ten-member ocean circulation ensemble has been constructed – Each ensemble only differ in the atmospheric forcing Eddy permitting model –However, finer scale processes are not resolved

7. Meteorologisk institutt met.no Gaussian noise is added to the model results with a velocity: Have only been used in the semi-Lagrange advection model for the egg and larvae drift.

8. Meteorologisk institutt met.no Spawning period: Cod eggs 1. April 15. April 15. March Particle release of 5 days The particles are advected until September 1th Release depth: 10m and 20m

9. Meteorologisk institutt met.no Spawning sites: Cod eggs nord yttersida vestfjorden

10. Meteorologisk institutt met.no

12. Particle release: larvae June - September Depth: 20m and 30m

13. Meteorologisk institutt met.no OIL - drift For the oil release, the operational Oil Drift Model at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute is applied. The oil drift is computed on the basis of currents from the ten ensemble members, supplemented by wave induced Stokes drift –Temperature, salinity, significant wave height, wave period and wind are also included –The wind is obtained from HIRLAM, while the operational wave model WAM supplies the oil model with significant wave height, mean wave period and stokes drift.

14. Meteorologisk institutt met.no OIL - concentration Oil chemestry - toxic –Not included Vertical mixing –Included Toxic – oil concentration –Adding up all submerged oil particles over a volume of 8km x 8km x 10m –Three layers: 0m-10m, 10m – 20m and 20m – 30m.

15. Meteorologisk institutt met.no OIL drift

16. Meteorologisk institutt met.no Takk for meg!