1. Page 1© Crown copyright 2005 ECOOP WP5 overview “Forecast Production and Information Systems” ECOOP Consensus and planning meeting 16-17 March 2005

2. Page 2© Crown copyright 2005 Contents  WP5 Aims and Objectives  WP5 Scope: systems, regions,…….  WP5 Tasks, interfaces to other WPs  Example …….

3. Page 3© Crown copyright 2005 ECOOP WP5 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: ‘EuroMISS’ To build up integrated coastal ocean forecast production and dissemination capacity based on existing systems, providing improved services for GMES  Define initial European Regional and Coastal Seas operational forecast modelling systems ECOOPSYS V0 (as MERSEA WP9) providing contributions to GMES Services  Synthesise existing forecast model outputs and observations into value-added information products for GMES services  Implement developments to ECOOPSYS arising from WP1, WP4 and the Development WPs through WP13

4. Page 4© Crown copyright 2005 ECOOP WP5 EuroMISS SCOPE: systems Priority: GMES Services: water quality, HAB, oil spill drift forecasting  3D circulation modelling including physical-ecosystem ?? BUT NOT ??  Storm Surges Waves Except where these are coupled to a 3D physical-ecosystem model eg waves OR include minimal waves / surges portal to existing systems

5. Page 5© Crown copyright 2005 ECOOP WP5 SCOPE: regions  COASTAL plus regional  ECOOP operational systems from :  Southern North SeaNorth Sea German Bight  English Channel / SW ApproachesIrish Sea Liverpool Bay  Aegean SeaAdriatic  Cyprus CYCOFOS Southern Mediterranean ?Black Sea  Bay of BiscayESEOO Spanish waters  SkagerrakBaltic Gulf of Bothnia / Gulf of Riga ??  Barents Sea OsloFjord MERSEA covers Mediterranean; NW Shelf, Baltic

6. Page 6© Crown copyright 2005 Suggested TASKS  Integration and definition of regional / coastal forecasting systems  Co-ordinate implementation of upgrades to ECOOPSYS V0 providing GMES services  Generation and dissemination of value added information products for GMES services, based on ECOOP observations and modelling  Particular links to WP3, WP13,….. ECOOP WP5 EuroMISS

7. Page 7© Crown copyright 2005 Suggested PRODUCTS: issues  Build on existing capability (MERSEA LAS / DISMAR / national initiatives………….)  Harmonise and integrate across regional seas systems  value added products  Dialogue with users; links to GMES Service Element activity ECOOP WP5 EuroMISS

8. Page 8© Crown copyright 2005 Suggested PRODUCTS  Gridded model datasets: MERSEA LAS  Synthesised model and observed parameters, including marine ecosystem, eutrophication indices, harmful algal bloom likelihood:  Web based delivery such as (building on) MONCOZE or POL Coastal Observatory or POSEIDON  Include links to existing systems for wave, surge forecasts ECOOP WP5 EuroMISS

9. Page 9© Crown copyright 2005 Suggested PRODUCTS examples Drawn from NOOS Other systems are also available  MONCOZE  POLCOBS  HAB index example for North West shelf  Eutrophication index southern North Sea ECOOP WP5 EuroMISS

10. MONCOZE project: Monitoring the Norwegian Coastal Zone Environment POMS: a web tool for uniform presentation of near-real-time observations and model products – to facilitate monitoring and analysis. A Norwegian national project: MONCOZE Pilot Ocean Monitoring System (POMS) http://moncoze.met.no

11. POL Irish Sea Coastal Observatory Web site - http://coastobs.pol.ac.uk Different levels for Researchers Managers Public

12. Page 12© Crown copyright 2005 Products under development from Met Office POLCOMS-ERSEM MRCS model Early April N to P ratio (left) and the corresponding phaeocystis warning map (right) showing some regions of elevated risk along Welsh and French coastlines

13. PML POLCOLMS_ERSEM Eutrophication in southern N Sea 1988

14. Page 14© Crown copyright 2005 SUMMARY: Suggested TASKS  Integration and definition of regional / coastal forecasting systems  Co-ordinate implementation of upgrades to ECOOPSYS V0 providing GMES services  Generation and dissemination of value added information products for GMES services ECOOP WP5 EuroMISS

15. Page 15© Crown copyright 2005 12km Ex-Hurricane Irene October 1999 Jonswap Gamma (colour) / windsea Hs (contours) Identifies regions with high sea state AND actively growing waves

16. POL Irish Sea: JNCC Irish Sea Pilot Project, model derived ecological units Bed stress frequency of stratification positions of fronts

17. Real-time model results Ocean-shelf model (12km), Irish Sea model (1.8km) e.g. sea surface temperature point and click for profile

18. Page 18© Crown copyright 2005 ECOOP WP5 MERSEA system provides: MERSEA V0  Arctic : TOPAZ : (North Atlantic, Nordic Seas and Arctic), HYCOM, resolution is 18-35 km. Includes ice and ecosystem model, Assimilates SSH, SST, ice concentration, ARGO floats. Assimilation scheme is EnKF, weekly assimilation cycle.  Baltic : DMI BSH-cmod + OI, resolution of 6-1 nm, twice daily.  Mediterranean : MFS : 1/16 o, assimilates sea level surface temperature and profile data using ROOI scheme on weekly basis.  NE Atlantic : FOAM 1/9 o N Atlantic, ocean and sea-ice model: nested inside Atlantic model ; assimilation of surface height, temperature and salinity profile data and sea-ice concentration fields using modified analysis correction scheme. POLCOMS system for NE Atlantic shelf using 12 km grid and no assimilation. Both are run daily. MERSEA V1  Arctic : Adapted to overall MERSEA operation. Assimilation of ocean colour data.  Baltic : BSH-cmod + OI, res. 3-1 nm, twice daily, with boundary conditions from NE Atlantic model  Mediterranean Adapted to overall MERSEA operation. Transition to daily operation.  NE Atlantic : POLCOMS 1/32 o no assimilation, nested in global daily.

19. Page 19© Crown copyright 2005 ECOOP WP5 MERSEA system provides: Mersea Integrated System V.2 Month 36 = Mar 2007  Arctic : horizontal resolution 9-18 km. Assimilation of Cryosat ice thickness data. [Ecosystem model upgraded.] Transition to daily real-time operations at meto.no underway.  Baltic : increased vertical resolution, data assimilation in test version.  Mediterranean trial nesting of Mediterranean model within the Mersea global; ecosystem demo.  NE Atlantic : OPA/EOMF, 1/32 o with tides, assimilation, daily, nested in "global". Mersea Integrated System V.3 March 2008  All models include ecosystems and delivered, fully nested ; ready for production  Arctic : Final system running operationally at met.no.  Baltic : Data assimilation fully operational.  Mediterranean: full operational implementation of nesting  NE Atlantic : ecosystem model included.