Solar energy from the desert for HUMAN SECURITY in a world with10 billion people Prof. Dr. Michael Düren II. Physikalisches Institut Univ. Giessen, Germany 2 nd Gießen workshop on Solar Energy Partnership between Africa and Europe June 8, 2009, Gießen

Michael Düren, Gießen, June 8, 2009 Challenges of the 21 st century Population growth Energy demand Climate change Water shortage Migration

Our society consumes a quantity of oil in 1 day that needed a geological production time of 1000 years! Population growth and energy demand Beijing Nuclear Renewables Gas Cole Oil Population CO 2

Increase of CO 2 concentration The atmospheric CO 2 -concentration increases rapidly due to the combustion of fossil energy sources.

01/ / /2003 Arktis Climate change

Global climate change The average world temperature and the sea level are growing due to the green house effect. Arktis, 01/1979 Arktis, 01/2003

Water shortage and migration Our problems are not limited to our energy supply. They will affect our future society in many areas. Spain, 2008

Historic Contributions to Global Warming Light at night, as seen from sattelite Present wealth and historic emissions are related

"Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit" Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009 Let us understand the battle against poverty and climate change as strategic tasks to be solved by us all. As the main sources of the factors causing climate change, the industrialized nations are responsible for the people in developing countries having been hit hardest. The fight against poverty and climate change must be one. The Credibility of Freedom Begreifen wir den Kampf gegen Armut und Klimawandel als strategische Aufgaben für alle. Die Industriestaaten tragen als Hauptverursacher des Klimawandels die Verantwortung dafür, dass die Menschen in den Entwicklungsländern am härtesten davon getroffen sind. Der Kampf gegen die Armut und der Kampf gegen den Klimawandel müssen gemeinsam gekämpft werden.

Challenges of the 21 st century We are in a race against time

Possible solutions of the energy problem: Energy saving: most important short term option (lower demand, higher efficiency) Cole, oil, gas: unacceptable greenhouse gas emission (CO 2 -storage is an improvement but not a solution) Nuclear energy: terrorism and proliferation… (13000 new reactors are not a good solution of the world energy problem) Nuclear fusion: not available in the next 50 years Photovoltaic: still too expensive to produce many Giga-Watts Biomass: limited availability and in competition with food production Wind: excellent options are the northern seas and the southern trade winds CSP: solar thermal power plants in the deserts: simple, no danger, abundant energy source

Concentrated solar power I Parabolic trough technology: see talk by Kai Schmitz

Solar power day and night Thermal energy storage (liquid salt) Andalucia (Spain) Mirror-field

Concentrated solar power II Fresnel technology Plants can grow in the collector shade

The first Linear Fresnel Solar Steam Generator By NOVATEC-BioSol (Germany), 1.5 MW, in Spain Air cooled condensor No water Consumption Dry cooling Dry cleaning

Concentrated solar power III Solar tower technology see talk by Bernhard Hoffschmidt

Concentrated solar power IV Dish-Stirling technology see talk by Peter Ruppert Local electricity supply Ideal for rural areas Can be produced and repaired in any car repair shop

The sun, our nuclear fusion reactor CSP-mirrors, our Satellite dish for energy Safty distance km

Solar energy from the desert: The solar energy irradiated on the deserts of our planet in 1hour exceeds the global energy consumption of 1 year

Economic potential, in PWh/y (= MWh/y) Global demand: 18 PWh/y Desert potential: 3000 PWh/y 144 PWh/y 125 ~1100 ~ ~200

"Baltic-Cable" in Sweden Transport of electric power High voltage DC line has little power losses (no 50 Hz radiation i.e. no electro-smog) Example: 5 GW, 800 kV; Losses: ~3% in 1000 km Costs: Africa-Europe ~ 0,01 /kWh

HVD C 22 90% of the world population lives in a distance of less than 3000 km away from the next desert Where is your next desert?

Proposal for Europe and MENA

MENA Power demand, and supply scenario in MENA (Middle East & North Africa) 7 x Transition mix including export to Europe and power for desalination

Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25 with 17% import from MENA Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear and fossil energy can be phased out to a large extend. EU

Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25 with 17% import from MENA Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear and fossil energy can be phased out to a large extend. >80% renewables

SECURITY ?

Is our current energy system secure? Fossil resources: –limited, and dangerous (climate change) –resources in the hands of a few suppliers (Gas: Russia,… Oil: Arabia,… and a few others) –costs are increasing and unpredictable Nuclear resources: –limited, and dangerous (proliferation, terrorism) –technology in the hands of a few suppliers (not a problem for Europe) –costs for safety are increasing and may become a problem

Security of renewable energies: Solar power supply from >10 countries in MENA and South Europe Thermal storage of CSP regulates day/night demand Fluctuations and failures are averaged out by a distributed system of renewables (sun and wind and others); Large pump storage power stations for long-term storage (Fjords,..) Local fossil power stations (coal) should be kept as backup in case of a political crisis Sun and wind are reliable and long-term stable! Fuel costs will remain stable (0 /kWh) for the next 50 years

Estimate of electricity costs from CSP 30

Prediction of electricity costs (for Germany): 31 Geschätzte zukünftige Stromkosten z.B. in Deutschland

Market introduction of CSP technology 1 conceptual 2 operational 3 bankable 4 commercial. 1. Invention, basic idea 2. Demo of functionality 3. Demo of reliability 4. Cost reduction for competition Technology innovationMarket introduction Phase 0 Phase 1

Cost of introducing CSP (and saving the climate) = cost of saving a bank! The German government alone spent ~1 bn in 1983 on research of nuclear fission technology 5% of 1 year world weapon expenses (BICC 2009) investment of 5 /person for a 10 bn people world of 2050 Barrier of Phase 1: CSP market introduction cost a coarse assessment Main uncertainty: development of fossil fuel cost CSP capacity for market introduction : 10 GW collectors Operating time: 2500h/y 25 TWh/y Feed in tariff over 20 years: 500 TWh Tariff surcharge 0.1 /kWh 50 bn =2.5 bn /y

MENA CHINA INDIA ECOWAS … Who can pay? Who should pay? Where are fast growing power demands in the proximity to deserts? USA CANADA EU JAPAN …

"Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit" Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009 This crisis offers a unique opportunity in that now, it is clear to all of us that no-one can permanently create advantages solely for himself. We, all of humanity, are in the same boat. And people in the same boat must help each other. In the 21st century, self-interest has come to mean that we must take care of one another. In particular, we in the North must learn to rethink… The Credibility of Freedom Die große Chance der Krise besteht darin, dass jetzt alle erkennen können: Keiner kann mehr dauerhaft Vorteil nur für sich schaffen. Die Menschheit sitzt in einem Boot. Und die in einem Boot sitzen, sollen sich helfen. Eigennutz im 21. Jahrhundert heißt: sich umeinander kümmern. Vor allem wir im Norden müssen umdenken…

Future vision 100% renewables Liquid fuels from concentrated solar power (e.g. catalytic reactions at high temperature): Liquid hydrogen from water, Alcohol from CO 2, …

A global and secure renewable energy concept exists. It is our job to make it happen in time!

References de.wikipedia.org … Thanks to Gerhard Knies and the other colleagues from DESERTEC for providing a lot of the transparencies

Yes, we can!