Working Party / Meeting GIS for Statistics ESPON 2013 Programme Marjan van Herwijnen & Sandra Di Biaggio ESPON Coordination Unit

Structure of the presentation ESPON 2013: Overview Progress Selected Territorial Trends and Dynamics on: Demography Accessibility Lisbon Indicators

The ESPON 2013 Programme Role in Structural Funds 2007-2013: Support policy development with evidence on European territorial structures, trends, perspectives and policy impacts Mission: Provide comparable information on territorial dynamics that can reveal territorial capital and potentials Budget 2007-13: 47 mill Euro, 34 mill. Euro from the European Commission 13 mill. Euro from 31 countries participating (EU 27 plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) Programme structure: 5 Programme priorities

P 1 - Applied Research (1) First themes, 1 final, 5 ongoing: Cities and Urban Agglomerations/Functionality and development opportunities for European competitiveness and cohesion (FOCI) Development Opportunities in different types of Rural Areas (EDORA) Demography and Migratory Flows affecting European regions and cities (DEMIFER) Effects of Rising Energy Prices on Regional Competitiveness (RERISK) Territorial Impact Assessment of Policies (TIP TAP) Climate Change and Territorial Effects on regions and local economies (CLIMATE)

P1 - Applied Research (2) 11 new project themes decided in February 2010: Attractiveness of European regions and cities for residents and visitors European patterns of land use Territorial cooperation in transnational areas and across internal/external borders Accessibility at regional/local scale and patterns in Europe Secondary growth poles in territorial development European perspective on specific types of territories Territorial dimension of innovation and knowledge economy Continental territorial structures and flows (globalisation) Territorial and Regional sensitivity of EU Directives Services of General Interest European Seas in Territorial Development

P 2 – Targeted Analyses: Use of ESPON results The Case for Agglomeration Economies in Europe/CAEE (Manchester, Barcelona, Dublin and Lyon) The Development of the Islands – European Islands and Cohesion Policy/EUROISLANDS (Ministry of Economy and Finance of GR plus 9 stakeholders) Cross-Border Polycentric Metropolitan Regions/MetroBorder (Ministries in CH, LU, BE, DE & FR) Success for Convergence Regions’ Economies/SURE (Campania Region plus regions in PO, ES and GR) Spatial Scenarios: New Tools for Local-Regional Territories/SS-LR (Regions of Barcelona, Torino and Herault) Territorial Diversity/TeDi (Ministries in NO, FI, CH, CY, MT, RO and SE)

P 2 - Targeted Analysis : Next projects Potential of Rural Regions/PURR (Notodden municipality, Cesis District, North Yorkshire county and Wales) Transnational Support Method for European Cooperation/ TranSMEC (North West Europe programme) +10 new projects based on selected ideas from stakeholders (Open Call for expertise in May and September 2010)

P 3 - Scientific Platform and Tools MC decision in February 2010: Territorial Indicators/Indices New projects for 2010-2011: ESPON 2013 Database – phase II (2010) Territorial Monitoring (2011) Tool development in 2010: Typology Compilation ESPON HyperAtlas (update) ESPON DataNavigator (update) ESPON MapMaker ESPON MapFinder Map updates/Trend Analyses in 2010: Lisbon/2020, Creative Workforce, Telecommunication

P 4 - Capitalisation New ESPON Website (including Map of the Month) Territorial Observations (Lisbon/2020, Creative, IT) First Scientific Report in September 2010 First Synthesis Report in October 2010 Workshop on ESPON Database in May 2010 Open ESPON Seminar in Alcala, Spain on 9-10 June 2010 ESPON Stakeholder Conference on Targeted Analyses in Bruxelles, September/October 2010 Workshop in October/November 2010 Transnational Networking Activities by the ESPON Contact Point Network (2 projects decided in February 2010, second call in May 2010)

Demography ESPON project “Spatial effects of demographic trends and migration” Typology based on the following demographic equation: regional population change is a function of natural population change and net-migration Total population change = (births – deaths) + (in-migration – out-migration) Annual total population change is estimate as: 100*(EXP(LN(end_year/base_year)/N)-1) So data is needed and can be found on: total population for the years 1995, 1999, 2000 and 2005 births and deaths for all years 1996-1999 and 2001-2005

Natural Population development 1996-1999 (annual change, exp, base year 1995)

Natural Population development 2001-2005 Observations : At European level, natural population development has very small impact on the increase of the population The spatial patterns if fairly stable when comparing both periods. Natural population development 2001-2005 (annual change, exp, base year 2000)

Net migration development 1996-1999 Annual net migration development 1996-1999 (annual change, exp, base year 1995)

Net migration development 2001-2005 Observations : Migration plays a key role for population growth in Europe. Migration has counterbalanced the impact of a negative natural population development in many regions Annual net migration development 2001-2005 (annual change, exp, base year 2000)

Typology of Population Development 1996-1999

Typology of Population Development 2001-2005 Observations : Capital regions in Europe are favourable hotspots of demographic development, mainly due to in-migration. In Eastern Europe, the immediate neighbouring regions to capital cities stand out Within some European countries the diversity of regions in terms of population growth is significant.

Population development in urban and remote regions, 2001-2005 Observations : 85% of the urban regions has positive demographic development. 50% of the remote regions has positive development, most concentrated to regions in the Western part of Europe. Most capital cities in Europe have a positive demographic development. Exceptions: some capital cities in Eastern Europe, where population increase takes place in surrounding regions.

Accessibility 2001-2006 ESPON project “Transport services and networks” Potential accessibility describes how easy people in one region can reach people located in other regions. So, potential accessibility is based on two elements: (1) population in NUTS 3 regions and (2) the effort in time to reach them. 18

Spatial Analysis Methods Spatial analysis methods are based on a various forms of distance (euclidean, cost, time, …) which are generally quantitative and continuous. The official territorial divisions (NUTS) are not considered a priori as relevant and can be eventually modified or removed. They introduced typically two kind of distances Euclidean Distance (isotropy, homogenity) Network accessibility (discontinuity, anisotropy)

ROAD Potential Accessibility 2006 Index (EU27=100) 20

ROAD Potential Accessibility 2001-2006 EU27= 7.4% Relative change (in %) 21

AIR Potential Accessibility 2006 Index (EU27=100) 22

AIR Potential Accessibility 2001-2006 EU27 = 7.8% Relative change (in %) 23

Observations Accessibility and economic growth are highly correlated Accessibility has increased at European level thanks to infrastructure investment and open sky The increase is highest for rail transport followed by air Road access improves towards the east of the core while rail access improves westwards The relative gains are favouring areas outside the core (pentagon) supporting territorial balance and a polycentric territorial structure The gains relying on low-cost airlines and expansion of regional airport are more vulnerable in terms of sudden changes in destinations due to the market changes 24

Composite Lisbon Performance, 2006 Observations: Regional diversity of potential contribution Core and Northern parts contributes the most Eastern and Mediterranean regions less performing 7 out of 14 Lisbon indicators: (1) GDP/capita, (2) GDP/employed person, (3) Employment rate, (4) Employment rate of older workers, (5) Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (6) Dispersion of regional unemployment rates (7) Long-term unemployment rate.

Trends in composite Lisbon Performance 2000-2006 Observations: Scattered pattern in core and regions close by North-East Europe has increased performance Regions in many countries performing below average

Progress by autumn 2010 17 Applied Research projects ongoing or final 18 Targeted Analysis ongoing 2 (of 3) major Scientific Platform projects running 5 Scientific Tools under development 5 Territorial Trend Analyses (map updates) made (Up to) 5 Transnational Networking Activities (ECP) in motion

Thank you for your attention! More information Thank you for your attention! www.espon.eu