Human Population When is enough enough?

Historical Human Populations Graph – page 2 Now in J-curve -exponential growth Have we exceeded carrying capacity? What is the carrying capacity of the earth? Will we continue and experience catastrophic dieback?

Critical Questions? Is there a problem? If yes, how significant as contrasted to other environmental and social problems? If yes, how do we respond? Desire for children - pronatalist & birth reduction pressures Access to family planning

Human Demography Crude Birthrate (per 1000) Total fertility rate – how does this relate to birthrate? Replacement level of fertility : 2.1 in developed countries Does reaching RLF mean ZPG – No. Why? (page 257) Crude deathrate and birthrate (per 1000 per year) Annual rate of population change(ARPC)= (BR - DR) /10 Expressed as a percent!! Excludes migration Doubling time in years = 70 years/ARPC as a %

Percentage Distribution (U.N. 98)

Demographic Transition Population Demographic Transition

Stages of Demo Transition (269) Preindustrial Society Transitional High birthrates Death rates falling Often rapid growth for 1-2 generations Industrial – low growth rate – birth rates still exceed death rates Postindustrial – zero to negative growth rates

Demographic Transition Is this the Answer? What is needed for this to occur? How long is the middle or second stage? Birthrates may increase in early and middle stages- RAPID GROWTH Can we wait for last stages of transition? Or will (or is) carrying capacity be exceeded? Are developing in “demographic trap” - never moving to final phases of transition?

Three Viewpoints of Future Optimistic Pessimistic Social Justice

Optimistic View World population will stabilize sometime in next century Some countries success stories Factors that support this viewpoint Developed countries and demographic transition

Pessimistic View Countries will never complete transition Have, or will, developing countries fall into “demographic trap” (269) Factors (269) Therefore: Must use bold policies and family planning Neo-Malthusians: “offer” or :impose” birth control

Social Justice Fair share of earth’s resources and economic benefits only way to complete transition Current situations in developing countries: due to effects of colonialism Neo-Marxists:Eliminate human oppression and poverty-social justice will result in decreased population growth

Population Growth: Opposing Factors affecting TFR and Birth Rates (259) Pronatalist pressures -parental desire for children May have more impact on population growth than availability to contraceptives Religious and cultural values Average age of marriage Desire for male children Infant mortality Economic advantages/disadvantages of children Education and socioeconomic status of women

How far should a government go? China – discuss their policies Contrast to Thailand, India, and Japan Different viewpoints Oppose any population growth Oppose rapid population growth No regulation of population growth – having children is basic right that should not be influenced or regulated by governments.