Global Environmental Trends: Population and Human Well-Being World Resources Institute http://www.wri.org/wri/

Global Population Continues to Rise Trends and Projections in World Population Growth by Region, Medium Fertility Projection, 1950-2050 The youthful age structure of most developing countries means that their absolute populations continue to grow, even where the rate of increase has declined significantly. For more information, visit http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/popgrow.html Source: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, Long Range World Population Projections: Two Centuries of World Population Growth: 1950- 2150 (U.N., New York, 1992), Table 6, p. 22 Note: Projections are based on the U.N. medium variant.

Stabilization Remains a Challenge Progress Toward Population Stabilization by Region, 1950-2050 Some regions are closer to the point at which death rates and birth rates are approximately equal and population growth levels off. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/popgrow.html. Source: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, World Population Prospects, 1950-2050 (The 1996 Revision), on diskette (U.N., New York, 1996). Notes: Progress toward stabilization is measured by dividing a region’s crude birth rate by its death rate. A ratio of 1 indicates a stable population. Values are based on 5-year rates.

Different Assumptions, Different Projections Population Projections on the Basis of Different Fertility Rates, 1950-2050 The United Nations populations projections for 2050 range from a low of 7.7 billion to a high of 11.2 billion. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/popgrow.html. Source: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, World Population Prospects 1950-2050 (The 1996 Revision), on diskette (U.N. New York, 1996). Notes: Under the high fertility rate projection, which assumes that high fertility countries will stabilize at 2.6, and low fertility countries will rise to stabilize at 2.1, world population would reach 11.2 billion in 2050. Under the medium fertility rate projection, which assumes that the fertility rate ultimately will stabilize at a replacement level of about 2.1, the global population would reach about 9.4 billion in 2050. The low fertility rate projection assumes that countries currently with higher-than-replacement fertility rates will stabilize at 1.6, and that countries currently with lower-than-replacement rates will either stabilize at 1.5 or remain constant. Under these assumptions, world population would stabilize at 7.7 billion in 2050.

Fertility Declines, Real and Projected Trends in Fertility Rates by Region, 1950-2050 Striking fertility declines are evident in rapidly developing countries such as Bangladesh, the Republic of Korea, and Signapore in Asia, and Colombia in Latin America. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/popgrow.html. Source: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, World Population Prospects, 1950-2050 (The 1996 Revision), on diskette (U.N., New York, 1996). Notes: Projections from 1995 to 2050 are based on the assumption that a goal of fertility rates of 2.1 children per woman in the year 2050 will have been achieved. Values are based on 5-year rates.

Rapid Growth in Low Income Economies GDP Growth Rate in Percent, 1971-95 A remarkable trend in the world economy over the past 25 years has been the burgeoning role played by developing countries, in particular the populous economies of east and south Asia. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/econgrow.html. Source: The World Bank, World Development Indicators 1997, on diskette (The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1997).

The Number of Poor Continues to Grow Numbers in Absolute Poverty in World Regions, 1987-93 Although the percentage of the world’s population living in poverty declined slightly between 1987 and 1993, the absolute number of people living in poverty increased from 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion people. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/econgrow.html. Source: The World Bank, Poverty Reduction and the World Bank: Progress and Challenges in the 1990s (The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1996), p. 4. Note: Absolute poverty is defined as the number of people living on less than the equivalent of US$1 per day.

Growing Disparities in Incomes among Regions Per Capita Income by Region, 1970-91 Disparities between rich and poor have widened at the international level, despite an economic boom in much of the developing world. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/econgrow.html. Source: United Nations (U.N.), Critical Trends: Global Change and Sustainable Development (U.N., New York, 1997), p. 58. Note: Based on purchasing power parity. See Data Table 6.1.

Urban Growth Spurt Continues Urban Population Growth, 1950-2025 Between 1990 and 2025, the number of people living in urban areas is projected to double to more than 5 billion; if it does, then almost two thirds of the world’s population will be living in towns and cities. An estimated 90 percent of the increase will occur in developing countries. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/citygrow.html. Source: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects (The 1996 Revision), on diskette (U.N., New York, 1996). Note: Developed regions include North America, Japan, Europe, and Australia and New Zealand; developing regions include Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), South America and Central America, and Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand). The European successor states of the former Soviet Union are classified as developed regions, while the Asian successor states are classified as developing regions.

Africa and Asia are Urbanizing Fastest Percentage of Population Residing in Urban Areas, by Region, 1970-2025 The fastest urbanization rates are now occurring in some of the least developed countries. Africa has the highest urban growth rate of all world regions: 5 percent per year. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/citygrow.html. Source: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects (The 1996 Revision), on diskette (U.N., New York, 1996).

People on the Move Annual Net International Migration Totals and Migration Rates in the World’s Major Areas, 1990-95 Between 1990 and 1995, 45 percent of overall population growth in developed countries was due to immigration; in Europe the proportion was 88 percent. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/migratio.html. Source: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, International Migration Policies 1995 (U.N., New York, 1996).

Progress Toward Democracy In 1974, only 39 countries (about 25 percent) were independent democracies; today, 117 countries are (about 60 percent). For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/migratio.html. Note: This particular index of democracy is based on Polity III data developed by Keith Jaggers and Ted Robert Gurr. It is calculated for 177 countries from scores on five component indicators: (1) competitiveness of political participation, (2) regulation of political participation, (3) competitiveness of executive recruitment, (4) openness of executive recruitment, and (5) constraints on the chief executive. For more information, see Keith Jaggers and Ted Robert Gurr, “Tracking Democracy’s Third Wave with the Polity III Data,” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 32, No. 4 (1995), pp. 469-482.

More Children Are Attending School Trends in Secondary School Enrollment, 1980-94 Educational achievements worldwide have improved significantly over the past 30 years; the proportion of children attending school has risen. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/rx4healt.html. Source: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Statistical Yearbook 1996 (UNESCO, Paris, 1997), Table 2.10,

More Adults Can Read Trends in Adult Literacy, 1980-95 Educational achievements worldwide have improved significantly over the past 30 years; adult literacy programs have helped to spread basic reading skills. For more information see http://www.wri.org/wri/trends/rx4healt.html. Source: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Statistical Yearbook, 1996 (UNESCO, Paris, 1997), Table 2.2, p. 2-9.