WECC Scenario Task Force (WSTF) Weekly Webinar May 31, 2019 WECC 2019 Scenario Assessments (Data Collection and Metrics)

2019 Scenario Studies Timeline Form Teams 2/1/2019 - 3/1/2019 Scope Studies 3/4/2019 - 5/31/2019 Collect Data 4/15/2019 - 7/5/2019 Create Cases 6/3/2019 - 7/26/2019 Perform Analysis 7/1/2019 - 9/20/2019 Review Results 8/12/2019 - 11/1/2019 9/30/2019 - 12/20/2019 Produce Reports Results Reviewed Data Collected 11/1/2019 7/5/2019 Reports Produced Teams Formed Studies Scoped Cases Created Analysis Completed 3/1/2019 5/31/2019 7/26/2019 9/20/2019 12/20/2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Today

Modeling Tasks Identify & Adjust Scenario Parameter Metrics Geospatial Analysis Network Reduction Load Forecasts Gen CapEx Updates Tran CapEx Updates Reduced Network PCM Renewable Potentials Water Constraints CO2 Constraints Policy Goals Reliability Constraints Extend PCM to 2038

Context Anchor Data Set Study Scopes Focus on Reliability Risk Assessment Uncertainty & Plausibility Drill-down Process Key Questions Study Horizons Reporting Metrics Tools Methodology

Model Adjustment Categories Load Transmission Goals Geospatial Generation Economics Constraints Horizon

Load Energy Demand Profiles Seasonal Variations Conforming / Non-conforming Distribution / Transmission Demand Response

Generation Technology Type Price Signals Proxies Candidate Operational Characteristics Qualifying Roles

Transmission Interface Paths Transfer Capabilities Expansion Options

Economics Generation Capital Expansion Economics Transmission Capital Expansion Economics Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Locational Marginal Price (LMP) Emission Costs Credits Fuel Costs Locational Water

Goals Policy Reliability Flexibility Reserve

Constraints Fuel Water Emissions

Geospatial Environmental Land Cover Terrain Difficulty Right of Way

Horizon Near-term (5 Year) Planned (5-10 Year) Long-term (10-20 Year)

Michael Bailey, P.E. WECC Senior Staff Engineer mbailey@wecc.org