1. 2018-2019 Scenario Scoping Process
Michael Bailey, P.E
System Adequacy Planning, WECC
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Talking Points
Scenario Development
Where are we in the process?
Scoping Process
Models, Tools, Methods, Metrics
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

3. Scenario Development Update
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4. The Scenario Learning Loop
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5. The Scenario Learning Loop
Narrative
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6. The Scenario Learning Loop
Modeling
Narrative
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7. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario Modeling
Narratives
Scoping
Approach
Metrics
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8. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario Modeling
Narratives
Scoping
Approach
Metrics
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

9. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario Modeling
Narratives
Scoping
Approach
Metrics
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

10. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario Modeling
Narratives
Scoping
Approach
Metrics
April 2019
January 2019
November 2018
End of Month
September 2018
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

11. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scoping
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

12. Scoping Process Narratives Reliability Questions
(& Near-term Priorities)
Study Horizons
Study Resources
Scoping Process
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13. Reliability Assessment Structure
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14. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario Matrix
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

15. Possible Reliability Questions
How might restricted customer choice of electrical supply options manifest and impact the characteristics of the BPS?
How might a “laissez faire” policy environment manifest and impact the characteristics of the BPS?
How might load patterns and characteristics change and what risks may arise?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

16. Possible Reliability Questions
How might the generation resource portfolio change and what risks may arise?
How might the utilization of transmission change and what risks may arise?
What operational challenges may arise?
What other potential risks to reliability of the BPS may arise?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

17. Possible Reliability Questions
How might planning and operation of the BPS adapt to these changes?
What market mechanisms may arise?
What investment decisions might need to be considered?
What mix of generation resources may be needed for reliability rather than energy production.
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18. Study Approach Development
Questions/ Scenarios
Questions/ Reliability
Questions/ Horizons
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19. Study Approach Development
Questions/ Scenarios
Questions/ Reliability
Questions/ Horizons Q S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Q1 ? Q2
. . . Qn Q
5yr
10yr
20yr Q1 ? Q2
. . . Qn Q R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Q1 ? Q2
. . . Qn
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

20. Study Approach Requirements
Questions/ Scenarios
Questions/ Reliability
Questions/ Horizons
SDS
StS DS MS
Requirements
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

21. Models, Tools, Methods, Metrics
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22. NEMS “Modules” Framework
National Energy Modeling System
Model Basis for Annual Energy Outlooks
Adapt “Modules” framework approach to WECC needs
WECC “Modules” based on ADS and WECC processes
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

23. NEMS Electricity Module
Not Adopting NEMS
Adapt framework and approach to our needs
WECC Modeling Modules unique to WECC
Framework used to develop study roadmaps
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24. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
WECC Modeling Modules
Load
Generation
Transmission
Economics
Fuels
Geospatial (GIS)
Goals and Constraints
Exogenous
Anchor Data Set (ADS) foundational
Basic Modeling Categories
Sub-modules refinements
Framework used to develop study roadmaps
Study Horizons captured
Facilitates
Organization
Transparency
Traceability
Pedigree
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25. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Tools
Load Forecasting
Production Cost Simulation
Power Flow
Capital Expansion
Optimization
Stochastics
Predictive Analytics
Operational Flexibility
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

26. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Methods
Sound & industry accepted
Peer and committee review
Transparent and documented with the pedigree
Leverage outside expertise when appropriate (e.g., National Labs, Consultants)
ADS foundational along with committee processes
Leverage StS, DS, MS and other committee’s for metric adjustments
Study approaches comply with objectives to the satisfaction of study requestor (e.g., SDS for scenarios)
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

27. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Metrics
Foundational metrics, non-foundational metrics, study approach metrics, metric adjustments
ADS metrics are foundational
Non-foundational metrics are peer reviewed in collaboration with StS, MS, DS, . . .
Leverage outside consultancy as needed (e.g., capital cost models)
Study approach metrics comply with objectives to the satisfaction of study requestor (e.g., SDS for scenarios)
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

28. Near-term Metrics Work
Long Term Load Forecasts
Update Capital Costs
New Generation Technology Types
Geospatial Renewable Energy Potentials
Review RPS and Policy Trends
Transmission Valuations
Reliability Goals and Constraints
Assumptions
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29. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Questions
Michael Bailey
Western Electricity Coordinating Council