Climate Risk Management @ JRC 6° EIONET meeting Brussels 22 May 2012

Simple approach RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x SENSITIVITY MITIGATION ADAPTATION 27 August 2019

temperature increase without and with policy Meinshausen Nature 2009

impacts at various levels of temperature increase discourse of 5 years ago AVOID THE UNMANAGEABLE mitigation > 40 % of species extinction around the globe (4.5) WestAntartic Ice sheet collapses: 7 meters sea level rise (4.2 committed) About 30% of coastal wetlands lost (3.8) Thermohaline circulation stops (4 committed) Terrestrial biosphere tends to a net carbon source (3.0) Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year (2.8) Greenland Ice sheet collapses: 7 meters sea level rise (2.2 committed) Up to 30% of species at increasing risk to extinction (1.8) Arctic summer ice disappears(1.5 committed) Hundreds of millions of people exposed to water stress (1.0) Increased coral bleaching (0.8) MANAGE THE UNAVOIDABLE adaptation IPCC 4AR 2007 Ramanathan & Feng PNAS 2008

today’s discourse impacts at various levels of temperature increase > 40 % of species extinction around the globe (4.5) WestAntartci Ice sheet collapses: 7 meters sea level rise (4.2 committed) About 30% of coastal wetlands lost (3.8) Thermohaline circulation stops (4 committed) Terrestrial biosphere tends to a net carbon source (3.0) Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year (2.8) Greenland Ice sheet collapses: 7 meters sea level rise (2.2 committed) Up to 30% of species at incresing risk to extinxtion (1.8) Arctic summer ice disappears(1.5 committed) Hundreds of millions of people exposed to water stress (1.0) Increased coral bleaching (0.8) FIGHT FOR 2 C mitigation PREPARE FOR 3 C adaptation IPCC 4AR 2007 Ramanathan & Feng PNAS 2008

Climate Risk Management: the challenge Mitigation is main action in EU -2 C target the low carbon society, the “great transistion” However: -global CO2 emissions , we are on or way to a +3 C world. Adaptation becomes more important also for EU -consider +2 C, +4 C, worlds ... because of uncertainties! -adaptation as essential element of sustainable development -economic, environmental social cost of inaction and action Fight for 2 C world prepare for +3 C world -How can mitigation and adaptation be linked Plan B: Geo-engineering -Carbon Dioxide Removal, Solar Radiation Management,

Simple approach RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x SENSITIVITY MITIGATION ADAPTATION 27 August 2019

Other framework: IPCC SREX report, 2011 Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation Sensitivity 27 August 2019

Climate Risk Management 2050 climate scenario’s MITIGATION TODAY meteorological forecast droughts heat waves infrastructure natural resources people floods - VULNERABILITY - ADAPTATION - VULNERABILITY - ALERTS Supported by Earth Observations and Earth System Modelling 27 August 2019

(no socio-economic change) The JRC PESETA studies Economic cost of Climate Change in the EU common Climate Change scenario’s up till 2100 (no socio-economic change) impacts and direct economic cost in: Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector N direct + indirect economic cost in: Sector 1 Sector 2 GEM-E3 Sector N Total cost (% GDP, PPP)

The JRC PESETA studies PESETA II (2011-2012) PESETA (2007-2009) Sectors Agriculture Coastal Systems River Floods Tourism Scenario’s (inconsistent) PRUDENCE A1B &B2 ΔT 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 Global: 2.6C – 3.4C EU: 2.5C, 3.9C, 4.1C, 5.4 C PESETA II (2011-2012) Sectors Agriculture River Floods Tourism Transport Energy Forest Fires Human Health Air Quality Habitat suitability Scenario’s (consistent + bias corrected) ENSEMLES A1B, E1, RCP8.5 ΔT 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 Global : 1.5 C – 3.5 C

The JRC PESETA studies PESETA (2007-2009) final result Ciscar et al., PNAS, 2011

The JRC PESETA studies PESETA - II (2011-2012) bias correction of scenario’s TEMPERATURE A1B Dosio et al., JGR, 2012 (submitted)

The JRC PESETA studies PESETA - II (2011-2012) bias correction of scenario’s PRECIPITATION A1B Dosio et al., JGR, 2012 (submitted)

Linking Adaptation and Mitigation various dimensions Global Regional (e.g. EU) Local optimal share of mitigation and adapation through cost-benifit analysis ... preference for adaptation; look for co-benefits of mitigation link global with local actors determine acceptable level of climate change (e.g. 2 C) to guide mitigation and adaptation Economic M and A complementary Social Swart and Raes, 2007 Environment M and A equally important 15

thanks 27 August 2019