Introduction to Technology Foresight (TF) Introduction to Technology Foresight (TF) A tool for strengthening National System of Innovation J. G. Shantha Siri Technology Division

Objective of this presentation

Outline Origin and evolution of TF Origin and evolution of TF Introduction to TF Introduction to TF What ? output/outcome why ? TF as a tool for strengthening National System of Innovation TF as a tool for strengthening National System of Innovation Why it is relevant to Sri Lanka Why it is relevant to Sri Lanka Lessons from other countries Lessons from other countries

1. Origin & Evolution 1950s - Technology Forecasting, Delphi technique by US DoD 1950s - Technology Forecasting, Delphi technique by US DoD 1980s - US –TF to short listed critical technologies 1980s - US –TF to short listed critical technologies Netherlands, TF by Ministry of Economic Affaires Germany - Identified list of 100 emerging technologies Germany - Identified list of 100 emerging technologies France, Ministry of Industry – Identify Key technologies France, Ministry of Industry – Identify Key technologies Japan Pioneering in TF over 30 years Japan Pioneering in TF over 30 years At present At present Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and many more Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and many more

2. Introduction Definitions: Definitions: 1. Foresight involves systematic attempts to look into the future of science, technology, the economy and society, with a view to identifying emerging generic technologies and the underpinning areas of strategic research likely to yield the greatest economic, social and environmental benefit". (APEC Centre for Technology Foresight, Thailand) Technology Foresight is the systematic study of trends in science, technology, the economy and society with the purpose of determining the fields of strategic research and developing generic technologies which would provide the most significant economic and social benefits. Grupp, Hariolf, Linstone, Harold A, 1999

A B Target

Technology Foresight helps; To look ahead and consider the role that may be required of Science & Technology in the Future

It involves the consideration of a range of possible futures instead of a single one It involves the consideration of a range of possible futures instead of a single one Try to maintain the balance between the S & T push and the market pull Try to maintain the balance between the S & T push and the market pull Meaningful participation of stakeholders in decision- making processes. Meaningful participation of stakeholders in decision- making processes.

Phases of TF Pre-Foresight Pre-Foresight Identify experts & sectors Main Foresight Main Foresight Situational analysis, workshops, consult expert panel, Delphi survey Post Foresight Post Foresight Influence government R&D priorities/industry R&D strategies/technology road maps

Different Levels of TF Macro-level – Among ministries/departments Macro-level – Among ministries/departments Meso-level- Group of companies Meso-level- Group of companies Micro-level – Individual company/institution Micro-level – Individual company/institution

Output/outcomes of TF

Vacuum tubes Transistor ICs How many transistors in a Pentium IV Desktop (3 – 3.8 GHz) ? Quantum computation /Molecular computing

Output of TF is represent by six Cs Communication Communication Concentration Concentration Coordination Coordination Consensus Consensus Commitment Commitment Comprehension Comprehension

TF Facilitates Knowledge synthesizing and refining Knowledge synthesizing and refining Effective knowledge dissemination Effective knowledge dissemination Enhanced learning Enhanced learning Greater capacity for innovating Greater capacity for innovating Inputs for the formulation of technology policies and strategies Inputs for the formulation of technology policies and strategies

Why TF There is a belief that it is possible to shape the future rather than simply prepare for a future. There is a belief that it is possible to shape the future rather than simply prepare for a future. Successful exploitation of technology has become critical in achieving economic competitiveness Successful exploitation of technology has become critical in achieving economic competitiveness A prioritized strategic R & D is essential since limited R&D budgets A prioritized strategic R & D is essential since limited R&D budgets Population is increasing, resources are depleting. Demanding a better quality of life Population is increasing, resources are depleting. Demanding a better quality of life

In the globalization, not only free flow of human and money but pandemics, technology (FDI), economic downturns, irregular weather patterns, environmental pollution across continents In the globalization, not only free flow of human and money but pandemics, technology (FDI), economic downturns, irregular weather patterns, environmental pollution across continents To cope with these changes, our Science & Technology systems should be able to respond by adapting existing technologies or developing and applying new ones To cope with these changes, our Science & Technology systems should be able to respond by adapting existing technologies or developing and applying new ones Because technology by itself does not work; it needs to be integrated with other parts like the economy, the environment and society. Because technology by itself does not work; it needs to be integrated with other parts like the economy, the environment and society.

Increasing Competition – global market Increasing Competition – global market Increasing Constraint – R&D Budgets Increasing Constraint – R&D Budgets Increasing Complexity –S&T, economy, politics, culture, environment Increasing Complexity –S&T, economy, politics, culture, environment Increasing Competencies – Scientific & technological Increasing Competencies – Scientific & technological Global driving forces that challenge S & T Policy

3. TF as a tool for strengthening National System of Innovation National system of Innovation –More emphasis on linkages Innovations are characterised by technology confluence and fusion which need Multi-disciplinary fields/institutional efforts Multi-disciplinary fields/institutional efforts Networks/partnerships Networks/partnerships Systemic policies Systemic policies Effective learning mechanisms Effective learning mechanisms S & T Tacit knowledge transfer S & T Tacit knowledge transfer

Technology Foresight provides support to innovation, and incentives and assistance to enterprises in; technology management technology transfer leading to enhanced competitiveness and growth.

4. Why it is relevant to Sri Lanka Fall behind in the international technology race and lose ability to compete internationally Fall behind in the international technology race and lose ability to compete internationally To identify technologies which will be decisive for future competitiveness To identify technologies which will be decisive for future competitiveness Prompted by ever-tighter public R&D budgets Prompted by ever-tighter public R&D budgets Establish priorities in research and technology policy. Establish priorities in research and technology policy. Time of signaling a socio-political stability of the country Time of signaling a socio-political stability of the country Many scientists and experts from industry and the administration as possible, together with representatives of other societal groups. Many scientists and experts from industry and the administration as possible, together with representatives of other societal groups. Public-private partnerships Public-private partnerships

5. Lessons from other countries The Korea (NIC) has used technology foresight over the past three decades and at present, the country is using it in, Prioritizing research areas Prioritizing research areas R&D resource allocation and R&D resource allocation and Science and Technology policy making. Science and Technology policy making. Korea

Korea National technology foresight, Korea Technology Foresight Centre, KISTEP Future prospects of Korean society up to Year 2030 Future demands and needs of general public Technology subjects by technical panels Total 761 future technology subjects were Delphi-surveyed realization time technical level and gap strategic importance obstacle to overcome National Science & Technology Council Total 21 technology areas impact on the quality of life economic growth public needs Government master plan overall priority-setting R&D program in Korea

Thailand Thailand in 1997 – Severe financial crisis Thailand in 1997 – Severe financial crisis Today a NIC Today a NIC More emphasis on TF to overcome the crisis through technological development More emphasis on TF to overcome the crisis through technological development

Hospital of the Future - Bumrungrad International Hospital International healthcare accreditation International healthcare accreditation Integrated hospital information system (Administrative, financial and clinical) Integrated hospital information system (Administrative, financial and clinical) Electronic medical records and digital radiology systems Electronic medical records and digital radiology systems System is a key to achieving rapid scheduling of services and efficient use of resources System is a key to achieving rapid scheduling of services and efficient use of resources Eliminates paper and waiting time Eliminates paper and waiting time Robotic technology maximizes both safety and efficiency. Robotic technology maximizes both safety and efficiency. Medications selected and delivered in a way that drastically reduces the potential for medication errors. Medications selected and delivered in a way that drastically reduces the potential for medication errors. It's not in the US; it's not even in Europe--it's in Thailand

Japan The success of Japan's technology development is attributed to comprehensive technological forecasting studies which were conducted in the 1960s. Kuwahara, Terutaka,1999 Technological Forecasting & Social Change Kuwahara, Terutaka,1999 Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Technological change and the economic growth Rank Country GDP (millions of USD) European Union18,394,115 1US14,264,600 1US14,264,600 2Japan4,923,761 3People's Republic of China4,401, South Korea 947,010 35Thailand 273, Sri Lanka 39,604 List by IMF 2008

Indian Industrys Sohrabji Godrej Green Business Centre Hyderabad, India Greenest Building in the World

Two 45-foot wind towers and screen walls air pre-cooled by 10 degrees to the air-conditioning system, -Venturi effect Photovoltaic panels built into- takes care of 20% of the buildings annual energy requirements Electrical fixtures have been automated Building does not require any artificial lighting during the day because its circular design allows sunlight to reach every part of it Construction materials - that were, were recycled and eco- friendly ( broken mosaic tiles, steel, wood, glass, fly ash brick).

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