1. Role of Integrated Environment Assessment Models in Developing Nations APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002, New Delhi Prof. Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita National Institute for Environmental Studies

2. 2 International Scientific Activities Framework of APEIS WSSD Propose Asia-Pacific model ECO ASIA Ministerial Meeting ECO ASIA Panel Policy Guidance Scientific database and options Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Other international projects Create linkages and cooperative structures International organizations (ADB, UNEP, UNU) APN Joint project collaboration Research on innovative and strategic policy options Integrated Environmental Monitoring Integrated Environmental Assessment Sub-projects

3. 3 Management Framework ·Representatives of each sub-project and APN experts Research Coordination Committee (RCC) →Coordination between each sub- project →Development of a draft overall research plan ·Senior officials from Asia-Pacific countries ·Members of RCC ·Representatives from international organizations ·Senior officials from Asia-Pacific countries ·Members of RCC ·Representatives from international organizations ECO ASIA Panel →Review, endorsement and coordination of the overall project →Forum for coordination between scientific activities and policy makers ·Environmental ministers and international organizations from the Asia-Pacific region ECO ASIA → Forum for policy discussion based on outcomes of scientific activities and provider of policy guidance IEM IEA RISPO Sub-Projects

4. 4 Objectives of APEIS To develop scientific knowledge-based tools and innovative strategy options to promote informed decision-making To promote regional cooperation and capacity building To propose a model of a regional initiative to substantiate and realize the Plan of Implementation for the WSSD Three Sub-Projects IEM: to develop an integrated environmental monitoring system IEA: to provide integrated models of the environment and economy, as well as a strategic database RISPO: to propose innovative and strategic policy options and policy inventories

5. 5 Integrated Environmental Assessments (IEA) A set of integrated assessment models as major tools of APEIS, including an environment-economy model, an ecosystem/health impact model, a water resource/agriculture model, a material/recycle-economy model and an energy technology model Strategic database as well as indicators for APEIS use Systematic projections of environmental trends as well as assessments of innovative options based on the above models and database

6. 6 Participating Organizations NIES (Japan); Kyoto University (Japan); Energy Research Institute (China); Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research(China); Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (India); Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand); Korea Environment Institute (Korea); Sangmyung University (Korea); Universiti Putra Malaysia (Malaysia) Calling for wider participation Capacity Building Activities (1) Assessment models are transferred with detailed manuals (2) Experts are invited to NIES or participating organizations to participate in the model development process 1 st Capacity Building Workshop on IEA October 2002 in Delhi (3) The 1 st Capacity Building Workshop on IEA will be held in October 2002 in Delhi, India.

7. 7 Why is Innovation Required for Environmental Policies? Environmental protection Economic growth very strict tradeoffs in Asia Introduction of innovations

8. 8 Actual emissions Predicted emissions without control Reduction by fuel switch Reduction by Industrial Structure Change Reduction by Flue-gas Desulfurization

9. 9

10. Why the Japanese pollution control was integrated with economic development ? (1) Technological development was essential to reduce the costs of pollution abatement. (2) A Competitive market gave an environment which was crucial in giving companies the incentive to invest in technology development. (3) Environmental investment created new businesses and industries in Japan, which increased Japan’s GDP. (4) Such environmental investment improved not only the quality of products, but also production processes and recycling processes in factories, which in turn encouraged Japan’s long-term development.

11. 11 1885 1990 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0500010000150002000025000 Per Capita GDP [1990 US$] Per Capita SO2 [tS] Japan

12. 12 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0500025000 Per Capita GDP [1990 US$] Per Capita SO2[tS] 1870 1990 100001500020000 Japan US

13. 13 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0500010000150002000025000 Per Capita GDP [1990 US$] Per Capita SO2 [tS] Japan US China

14. 14 If China follows US and European experience, - - - 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 010000200003000040000 Per Capita GDP [US$] Per Capita SO2 [tS] Following US/Europe US Japan China Following Japan Following but preceding Japan If China follows Japanese experience, and if China precede Japan - - - and if China precede Japan - - - If China follows Japanese experience, - - -

15. 15 AUS JPNCHN IDN IND KOR PHL THA 7.8 16 112 203 12 119 1.4 22 2.6 65 9.4 37 0.6 13 1.7 11 Production of Environmental Industries in the Asia-Pacific Major Countries (billion US$) Estimated by AIM model Year 2002 Year 2032

16. 16 Policymaking Process AIM (Asia) IMAGE (Netherlands ） GCAM （ USA ） MIT (USA ） Integrated Assessment ecology policy sciences hydraulics meteorology geochemistry paleo- climatology geophysics Atmospheric Chemistry economics pedology

17. 17 What is Integrated Assessment (IA) ? A framework for the "best available synthesis of current scientific, technical, economic, and sociopolitical knowledge" (IPCC 1995). History beginning 1970s 1 st IA : Climatic Impacts Assessment Program (CIAP) late 1970s Formal computer simulation models were introduced during 1980s IA trials in ozone layer, acid rain, and climate change issues 1990s Rapid increase of interest in the IA and many progresses in computer simulation models as a core tool of IA.

18. 18 Integrated assessment and Capacity Building l integrated assessment approaches have led to improvements in communication between policy-makers and scientists l the development of Integrated Assessment Model has greatly improved the ability of, and incentives for, scientists and policy makers to integrate their research and governance activities

19. 19 l the development of integrated assessment approaches has created a competitive situation among science and policy fields, which encourage new research and policymaking l therefore, long-term joint research program for integrated assessment is one of very effective way to build capacity for comprehensive policymaking Integrated assessment and Capacity Building (cont.)