Analysis of the Direct Use of Natural Gas Statement of Work.

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Presentation transcript:

Analysis of the Direct Use of Natural Gas Statement of Work

Background: 1994 Study Goal: Analyze the economic efficiency of converting to gas Method Looked at 5 market segments 1.Conversion of electric water heat to gas where gas is already used for space heating 2.Conversion of an electric forced-air furnace and electric water heat to gas where only a gas service connection is required 3.Conversion of an electric forced-air furnace and electric water heat to gas where both a gas main extension and gas service connection are required 4.Conversion of electric zonal space heat and electric water heat to gas where only a gas service connection is required 5.Conversion of electric zonal space heat and electric water heat to gas where both a gas main extension and a gas service connection are required Monte Carlo Analysis

Background: 1994 Study Methodology

Background: 1994 Study Results

Project Goals Repeat the 1994 Study with current information Add Multifamily and New Construction Create the supply curve inputs to the Councils portfolio model for the direct use of gas as a resource

Project Overview: Market Segments Table 1 - Required Market Segments Market Segment Occupancy Type Vintage Baseline EquipmentConversion Equipment HeatHot WaterHeatHot Water 1Single FamilyExistingFAF ElectricElectricGas FAFGas 2Single FamilyExistingZonal ElectricElectricGas FAFGas 3Single FamilyExistingHeat PumpElectricGas FAFGas 4Single FamilyExistingGas FAFElectric---Gas 5Single FamilyNew Construction Any ElectricElectricGas FAFGas 6MultifamilyExistingFAF ElectricElectricGas FAFGas 7MultifamilyExistingZonal ElectricElectricGas FAFGas 8MultifamilyExistingHeat PumpElectricGas FAFGas 9MultifamilyExistingGas FAFElectric---Gas 10MultifamilyNew ConstructionAny ElectricElectricGas FAFGas

Project Overview: Tasks Economic Analysis – Monte Carlo simulation – Gather and analyze new data for inputs – Output Distributions: NPV of cost Electric energy savings mills/kWh – Analyze Cost-effective portions of each market segment Market Potential Analysis – Gather and analyze data on gas conversions, fuel choice in new homes, and outside influences on both Inputs for Portfolio Model Report & Presentation

Deliverables & Timeline 3 months – Council Portfolio Model Inputs – Draft Report – Presentation to RTF 5 months – Final Report