LAMAS Working Group 13 - 14 June 2018 Agenda Item 3.3 Variance estimation in the LFS Melina.ANTUOFERMO@ext.ec.europa.eu Eurostat

Background Variance of annual net changes, values of the indicators and differences requested by DG EMPL List extended to 23 indicators this year, including two Yearly indicators Eurostat in charge of variance estimation for 21 countries Dissemination only on statistical significance (only Yes/No) Eurostat

Variance of annual net changes Comparison of NSI and Eurostat results for the 23 indicators : Same conclusion for all indicators: ES, DE Different conclusion: IT (3 indicators), SE and AT (4 indicators), LV and HU (1 indicator), FR (2 indicators) NO comparison not possible Eurostat compared also NSI/Eurobase indicators BE and IE break in series, no results this year The most problematics variables for comparison are Youth indicators Youth employment rate (different conclusions for Italy) Youth unemployment ratio (different for Sweden and France) Newly employed different for Italy and Austria NO because Eurostat has not yet received their new COEFF -> new estimation method with a new coeff. Eurostat compared also NSI/Eurobase indicators: it shows some issues -> usefull check Eurostat

Net change significance of the NEET rate, age group 18-24, in %   2016 2017 Difference Significance Method Estimated by BE 13.08 12.10 - (1) BG 22.34 18.61 -3.73 Yes Taylor Eurostat CZ 9.14 8.32 -0.82 No DK 7.67 9.21 1.54 DE 9.23 8.58 -0.65 Bootstrap NSI EE 11.40 12.35 0.95 IE 14.79 13.22 EL 21.89 21.43 -0.46 ES 19.09 17.09 -2.00 Jackknife FR 15.60 14.97 -0.63 HR 21.65 20.16 -1.49 IT 26.04 25.74 -0.30 CY 22.35 22.73 0.39 LV 14.93 14.16 -0.77 LT 12.64 12.11 -0.53 LU 7.99 8.20 0.21 NEET 18-24 Part 1 FR data corresponds to France metropolitan Largest difference Bulgaria -3.73 pp Significant follow by Romania -2.58 pp Significant Smallest evolution HU -0.05 pp logically not significant HR not significant even if it id -1.49 pp (small group large variance)

Net change significance of the NEET rate, age group 18-24, in %   2016 2017 Difference Significance Method Estimated by HU 14.16 14.11 -0.05 No Bootstrap NSI MT 8.28 8.53 - (1) Taylor Eurostat NL 6.07 5.26 -0.82 Yes AT 9.36 8.08 -1.29 PL 14.15 12.83 -1.32 PT 14.93 13.03 -1.90 RO 21.88 19.31 -2.58 SI 10.47 8.04 -2.43 SK 15.49 15.28 -0.22 FI 13.74 12.88 -0.86 SE 8.70 8.30 -0.40 Greg Estimation - CLAN UK 13.99 13.16 -0.84 IS 4.47 4.12 -0.35 NO 7.37 6.29 -1.08 Linearization CH 8.34 7.76 -0.58 Variance cannot be estimated because of a break. Due to resampling indicators obtained using Bootstrap can be different from Eurobase Most of the evolutions are significant except for 10 countries (where differences are always lower than 1pp).

Net change significance of the Employment rate 20-64, total, in %   2016 2017 Difference Significance Method Estimated by BE 67.68 68.51 - (1) BG 67.67 71.34 3.67 Yes Taylor Eurostat CZ 76.73 78.55 1.82 DK 77.40 76.94 -0.46 No DE 78.62 79.21 0.59 Bootstrap NSI EE 76.64 78.73 2.09 IE 71.40 72.99 EL 56.19 57.76 1.57 ES 63.87 65.55 1.68 Jackknife FR 70.42 71.05 0.63 HR 61.43 63.56 2.13 IT 61.56 62.34 0.78 CY 68.74 70.70 1.96 LV 73.23 74.76 1.54 LT 75.18 75.98 0.80 LU 70.67 71.53 0.86 (1) Variance cannot be estimated because of a break. Significant except for 5 countries (above 31) For these 5 countries differences lower than 1pp

Net change significance of the Employment rate 20-64, total, in %   2016 2017 Difference Significance Method Estimated by HU 71.53 73.26 1.74 Yes Bootstrap NSI MT 69.64 71.40 1.76 Taylor Eurostat NL 77.12 78.04 0.92 AT 74.81 75.40 0.60 PL 69.29 70.89 1.59 PT 70.63 73.38 2.75 RO 66.31 68.83 2.52 SI 70.05 73.41 3.36 SK 69.81 71.11 1.30 FI 73.37 74.20 0.83 SE 81.20 81.80 Greg Estimation - CLAN UK 77.54 78.19 0.65 IS 87.77 87.56 -0.21 No NO 78.59 78.27 -0.32 Linearization CH 82.02 82.13 0.11

Net change significance of the Employment rate of low skilled persons, age group 20-64, in %   2016 2017 Difference Significance Method Estimated by BE 45.59 45.85 - (1) BG 39.15 44.39 5.24 Yes Taylor Eurostat CZ 43.67 49.20 5.54 DK 61.80 60.23 -1.57 No DE 58.91 59.59 0.67 Bootstrap NSI EE 65.73 3.92 IE 48.88 50.08 EL 48.07 49.18 1.10 ES 52.86 54.65 1.79 Jackknife FR 51.25 52.59 1.34 HR 37.91 34.71 -3.19 IT 50.32 51.01 0.69 CY 56.76 56.92 0.16 LV 54.80 56.71 -0.47 LT 42.33 44.06 1.73 LU 56.41 56.42 0.01 BG, CZ large evolution > 5 pp logically significant LT 1.73 NOT significant even if >1 pp

Net change significance of the Employment rate of low skilled persons, age group 20-64, in %   2016 2017 Difference Significance Method Estimated by HU 50.71 53.86 3.15 Yes Bootstrap NSI MT 57.15 57.89 0.74 No Taylor Eurostat NL 60.70 61.19 0.49 AT 53.92 53.91 -0.01 PL 39.53 40.79 1.26 PT 64.72 67.69 2.97 RO 52.26 54.68 2.42 SI 45.50 49.33 3.83 SK 35.95 37.28 1.33 FI 52.05 51.28 -0.77 SE 61.00 61.80 0.80 Greg Estimation - CLAN UK 62.09 63.58 1.50 IS 79.52 77.89 -1.63 NO 60.35 59.94 -0.41 Linearization CH 68.10 67.73 -0.37 Not significant for the majority of the countries (16) PL, SK, IS not significant even if absolute difference >1 pp

LAMAS is invited to take note of Quality checks done at Eurostat on the sampling design variables (continue every quarters) Final results to be transmitted to DG EMPL Results will be also shared with LAMAS delegates No big changes this year on the variables Usual checks longitudinal, nb. of PSU STRATA, missing value FSU cannot be empty etc Eurostat