1. Income distribution: flash estimates 2016 (FE) Item 3.6 of the agenda
DSS Meeting 3 and 4 October 2017

2. Timeliness of social statistics
Used in Europe 2020, the European Semester and various high level policy frameworks
Income comes late
Double action:
Advance the SILC data delivery
Flash estimates

3. Flash Estimates 2017 Income year 2016 AROP, QSR, D1-D9
Produced through
Microsimulation (Euromod). Three main elements: changes in employment, uprating factors, changes in the tax benefit systems)
Macro-economic time series modelling (METS)
Assessment
Quality in the process
Quality of the output
Historical performance
Plausibility

4. Communication "Magnitude direction scale" Advantages and drawbacks
MDC
AROP(pp)
QSR
Deciles (%)
Decrease in inequality indicators=green
Increase in positional indicators = green
[---]
<-2
<-0.6
<-5
[--]
[-2,-1[
[-0.6,-0.3[
[-5,-2[
[-]
[-1,0]
[-0.3,0]
[-2,0]
[+]
]0, 1]
]0, 0.3]
]0, 2]
[++]
]1,2]
]0.3,0.6]
]2,5]
[+++]
>2
>0.6
>5
MDC (change class) communicated only if the estimated change is significant
Advantages and drawbacks
- Discussed with users and producers

5. Consultation with the Member States
Task force
SILC WG and DSS
Validation in two phases
Methods: SILC WG
Results: summer bilateral consultations

6. Publication as experimental statistics
Puts the basis for receiving feedback from users and the research community
We cannot expect to capture perfectly changes in the SILC estimates:
=> the accuracy of the indicators depends on differences in the input datasets, model assumptions (e.g. policies simulated under microsimulation ).

7. Country
Income Year
AROP
QSR D1 D3
MEDIAN D7 D9 BE
2016 u
]0,0.3] ns
]2,5] BG
>5 CZ
DK* EE IE
[-0,6,-0,3[ EL ES HR
]0,2] LV LT LU HU
NL* AT PL
<-2
<-0.6 PT
[-1,0] RO
]0,1] SI SK FI SE UK DE
2015 FR IT CY MT

8. Main messages Overall increase of the disposable income
AROP and QSR often non-significant
Importance of analysing the deciles
Interest of looking at time series

9. Temporal perspective

10. 3 main documents are available
As experimental statistics under the responsibility of Eurostat
Experimental results
Methodological note
Temporal perspective (graphs)

11. Ways forward Collect feedback, including yours Present to users
Analyse the results when the 2016 SILC data would be available
Produce the new cycle
June, if possible
Microsimulation versus macro-economic modelling
Better dissemination and narrative
Improve the models (uncertainty, alignment, plausibility)

12. Future participation of MS
Feedback
Provision of data- streamline the process
Validation
The DSS are invited to comment
- on the methods used and the results achieved
- on the future steps