Ekaterina EDINAK Ivan KOROLEV Andrey KOROVKIN

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Irelands Economic outlook David Duffy. The Outlook Dependent on world trade growth If forecast recovery materialises then Irish growth will improve in.

Advertisements

IDE-Geographical Simulation Model (GSM): Predicting the Future of ASEAN Satoru KUMAGAI(IDE-JETRO/MIER)

3.4 Understanding work in the national and global economy.

Economic Implications of the Oil Discovery in Kenya Habil Olaka Chief Executive Officer Kenya Bankers Association Prepared by: The Centre for Research.

Norman W. Garrick Transportation Forecasting What is it? Transportation Forecasting is used to estimate the number of travelers or vehicles that will use.

Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS-Stat) Registration of general and labour migration in CIS member states.

Esperance An Economic update. Major Industries (Esperance Ravensthorpe) A location quotient determine which sectors form the economic base of an area.

Human Capital and Ageing Clare Ward Deputy Government Statistician, Statistics New Zealand Paris, 28 June 2012 June 2012.

GDP THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 (BY VARIANTS) GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic.

The Importance of Economic Census Data for Federal Policy Katharine G. Abraham Member, Council of Economic Advisers Hi-Beams for the Economic Road Ahead.

FACTORS AFFECTING POPULATION CHANGE. There are four factors that affect population change in a country: BIRTH RATE BIRTH RATE DEATH RATE DEATH RATE IMMIGRATION.

Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency Apex-Brasil Brazil Economic Scenario and Investment Opportunities Alessandro Teixeira President.

The Canadian Occupational Projection System Gilles Bérubé Labour Market Research and Forecasting Division Human Resources and Skills Development Canada.

[ 1 ] MIGRATION AND PRODUCTIVITY. LESSONS FROM THE UK-SPAIN EXPERIENCES This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General.

[ 1 ] The Economic Impact of Migration – Productivity Analysis for Spain and the UK This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate.

Evaluation of RURAL MIGRANT SKILLS DEVELOPMENT AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECT CzechDET2009 Group 3.

Ivan Perkovic Head of Economic Research South East Economy Update & Potential impact of public sector cuts on the South East (December 2010 Update) January.

The Israeli Economy and Society between Wars, Hi- Tech and Globalization Dr. Roby Nathanson Tel - Aviv, Presentation to FFSI Group.

The determinants of foreign investment in Russian food industry companies Draft of the paper Student: Gladysheva Anna Group: 41MMAE Argument consultant:

Community Economic Development ECON 3990

THE OECD SKILLS STRATEGY Better Skills, Better Jobs, Better Lives 2012 LLAKES Conference Lifelong Learning, Crisis and Social Change Thursday 18 October.

Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H The Demographics of.

The consequences of the National Health Account for Occupational Health Services evaluation in Poland ICOH, Amsterdam 2002 Izabela Rydlewska – Liszkowska.

1 Item 7: National Accounts And Employment Data Using Employment Statistics in the Russian National Accounts Alexander Surinov Deputy Head of Rosstat Joint.

Europe’s Eastern Borders: Migration from an Economic and Geographic Periphery? I G Shuttleworth School of Geography, Archaeology and Paleoecology QUB.

A Dynamic Analysis of Kansas Tax Reform Todd Davidson Fiscal Policy Analyst, Kansas Policy Institute 4/2/2013.

Gas Development Master Plan Overview of the GDMP Model Capacity Building Workshop Bali, 1-2 July 2013.

Module 12: Advanced Session on using the RAP ILO, 2013.

Inflation Report February Output and supply.

Regional Decision-making Tools South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership October 15 & 16, 2003 REGIONAL ECONOMIC MODELS, INC.

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования The methodology of Input-Output tables creation and new opportunities for economic analysis in Russia ©Институт.

WILL RUSSIA FACE LABOR FORCE SHORTAGE IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS? (REVISED RESULTS FOR DISCUSSION ) June 14, 2011.

GDP The forecast of development of the Russian oil-extracting industry GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Moscow 2008.

AIECE GENERAL REPORT AUTUMN GENERAL MEETING Brussels, 7-8 November 2013.

German Federal Ministry of Economics German Federal Ministry of Finance Short-term economic indicators for business cycle analysis and forecasts as a basis.

EM 4103: Urban Planning II Lecture 8: Employment Analysis in Planning.

Migrant Labour Remittances in Africa: Reducing Obstacles to Developmental Contributions Cerstin Sander Bannock Consulting Presentation at the International.

ReRISK-DEMIFER Application at Belgian level ESPON 2013 Programme.

The future of labour market in Latvia The future of labour market in Latvia February 27,

The Labour Market and the New Budgetary Framework Thomas Conefrey Irish Fiscal Advisory Council DPER Labour Market Policy Symposium 19 May 2015.

Forecasting of employment in Russian interindustry model The Institute of Macroeconomic Forecasting Mironova Elena 2008.

Developments in the estimation of the value of human capital for Australia Presented by Hui Wei Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Strategy of economic and social development of St. Petersburg until 2030 Committee for Economic Policy and Strategic Planning of St. Petersburg

Macroeconomic situation. The economic downturn has been suspended Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted data, 4th q of 2005 = Exports and Domestic.

MPO DEMOGRAPHICS Public Meetings June 26 & 27, 2006 North Central Texas Council of Governments Transportation Department.

Employment  Activity or Participation Rate is the percentage of any given group in the population either in work or unemployed.  Net Migration is immigration.

1 Metropolis Session: Irregular Migration: Perspectives from both countries of origin and destination Contextualizing Irregular Migration Christine Aghazarm,

Dnipropetrovsk Alfred Nobel University Master’s degree Diploma Project Topic: “Qualitative analysis and the enterprise development strategy formation”

Growth and Migration in Japan MARIAM AL-THANI AYA EL WARDANY.

Anda DAVID Mohamed Ali MAROUANI Charbel NAHAS Björn NILSSON

Thanks for the invitation.

Migration in Europe, Challenges, Policies and Institutions

Inflation Report November 2017

Human Resource Planning

ZHANG Juwei Institute of Population and Labor Economics

North Central Texas Council of Governments Transportation Department

Dani Peterson, Arielle Harrison, Lexy Caldwell

Labour Migration in Ukraine: trends and consequences

Performed by: Azrilian Anna year of study: group: IEe-16m

Presentation at the African Economic Conference

Labor migration to Austria Recent labor market trends in the context of the opening of the labor markets Immigration and the Austrian Labor Market Thomas.

مدل زنجیره ای در برنامه های سلامت

Forecast of skills on the labour market

Variations in Economic Structure

GREECO ESPON Internal Seminar Sustainable Territories 30 November 2011

European Economic and Social Committee

Population projections Agenda: 6.2; Document 13

Regional Conference on Migration (RCM) Meeting of the Regional Consultation Group on Migration (RCGM) RCM Guiding Principles for the Development of Public.

NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE

Presentation transcript:

Ekaterina EDINAK Ivan KOROLEV Andrey KOROVKIN Estimation of future interregional labour migration on the base input-output calculations 26th INFORUM World Conference 2018, Poland, Lodz

Changes of population internal migratory flows (the balance)

Changes of internal labour migratory flows (the balance)

The questions we are looking for answer in research Could we provide with the labour force regions which now are losing their population by changing pattern of internal migration if the government starts to provide the active structure-investment policy? How changes in sectors labour demand in regions will impact the internal migration flows? A possible solution To build the forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration to meet the labour needs of regions.

A possible solution RIM (CONTO) NORM Forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration Balances of labour recourses at the regional level Population projection at the regional level

The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step Population projection at the regional level The volume of employees leaving each sectors in regions Basic employment in sectors in regions 1. Retirement Mortality Emigration Dismissal

labour migrants from other regions foreign labour migrants The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step internal labour force Sectors labour demand Sectors basic employment The need for additional labour in sectors in regions 2. labour migrants from other regions foreign labour migrants

The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step 3. the volumes of labour force reserve in each region (internal labour force) 4. Modeling the distribution of total labour force reserve between regions and sectors (follows the economic attractiveness). The volumes of distributed labour force reserve in each regions = new employees

The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step For each region: New employees in region Internal regional labour force reserve The balances of internal labour migration in region 5.

1. 2. 3. Following situations within region: New employees in region Internal labour force reserve The own labour force reserve leave or remain in the region 1. New employees in region Internal labour force reserve 2. New employees in region Internal labour force reserve labour migrants from other regions 3.

On the model base the next forecast assessments can be obtained The necessity of labour market for foreign labour force (the difference between total need for additional labour and total labour force reserve) 1. The ability of filling each sector of every region by the labour force reserve, taking into account its economic attractiveness 2. The balance of the internal labour migration for each region 3. The necessity of each sector for foreign labour force 4.

On the model base the next forecast assessments can be obtained Scenario conditions

The average growth rate of GRP by Federal Districts, %, 2017-2030

The average growth rate of labour demand by Federal Districts, %, 2017-2030

The average growth rate of labour demand by sectors, %, 2017-2030

The balance of the future interregional labour migration (preliminary results of the study) 2020 2030

Research perspectives: To consider various restrictions in modeling of labour force distribution between regions and sectors. Apart from economic factors of region and sector attractiveness the other factors such as weather, transport accessibility etc will be take into account. The more specified analysis at the regions level is needed.

Thank you for attention!