1. 1990 1998 2010 20302 GDP THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 (BY VARIANTS) GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Moscow 2007

2. Logic of interaction of economic variables in complex of models IEF RAS INCOM OUTPUT RESOURCE RESTRICTIONS AND INVESTMENTS PRICES PARAMETERS OF ECONOMIC POLICY © Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 2

3. 3

4. 4

5. Decomposition under factors increase of GDP per 2000-2006 ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 5 Inventory

6. Rates of internal demand and GDP, % (by corresponding a quarter of the last year ) 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2003.1 2003.2 2003.32003.42004.12004.22004.32004.42005.12005.2 2005.3 2005.4 2006.1 2006.2 2006.32006.4 Internal demand GDP ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 6

7. 7 Investments share in GDP 25% Dynamics of GDP depending on a capital intensity and share of investments in GDP

8. The forecast of dynamics of GDP depending on norm of capital formation and growth of a capital intensity (a share of formation of 30-35 %) 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 GDP, % Level of a capital intensity of GDP Investments Share in GDP, % - right scale ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 8

9. 9 Balance of factors of delay and acceleration of GDP from a final demand (on the end of the period on average values of contributions of factors) From the capital

10. ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 10

11. Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year (an investment variant) 11111111

12. ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 12121212 Dynamics of outputs on sectors, % for a year Investment scenario Construction

13. ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year (an Inertial variant ) 13131313