XV Black Sea Grains International Conference 2018 Kiev, Ukraine

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Presentation transcript:

XV Black Sea Grains International Conference 2018 Kiev, Ukraine XV Black Sea Grains International Conference 2018 Kiev, Ukraine. April 18-19 Asian Outlook for Grains G. Chandrashekhar Global Agribusiness and Commodities Market Specialist

Five critical drivers of world commodities market Economic growth Geopolitics Monetary policy Currency Weather

ASIA China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, others Home to 40% of world population China and India - world’s largest producers and consumers of wheat India – world’s largest producer, importer and consumer of pulses

World Wheat Market Fundamentals (million tons) Year 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Output 737 754 758 741 -China 130 129 130 -India* 92 98 97 -Pakistan 25 26 27 Use 720 738 742 744 -China 112 118 117 -India* 89 97 98 -Pakistan 24 24 25

World Wheat Market Fundamentals (million tons) Year 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Import 166 176 174 179 -China 3 5 4 -India 1 6 2 -Pakistan neg neg neg Stocks 224 240 256 253

India – the big story Production for 2017-18 somewhat overstated at 97.1 ml t Lower at 92-93 ml t; further reduced due rains last week Agencies ignore huge government held stocks when estimating domestic consumption

India: Wheat Production and Procurement (million tons) Year Harvest Procurement 2015-16 92 23 2016-17 98 31 2017-18 97 32 (t) Government holds large stocks of wheat and rice for welfare programs across India Currently, 20% duty on import Farm-gate prices close to procurement price Long-term effect of GW/CC

Pulses India: world’s largest acreage, production, processing, import and consumption South Asia: India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka account for 40% of world import Huge appetite for consumption

India - the epicenter of pulses Production expanded last 2 years; Huge inventory build up; Demand growth sluggish; Farm-gate prices below MSP; Growers angry; Government forced to impose QRs and tariffs on import; may take up to 6 months for market to balance

India: Production + Import (million tons) Year 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Harvest 16.4 23.1 24.0 Import 5.9 6.6 5.0 India’s capacity to absorb large volume suspect India far from self-sufficient; Agriculture vulnerable; world trade destabilized by kneejerk reaction; suppliers alienated;

Thank You G. Chandrashekhar Senior Journalist and Policy Commentator Economic Advisor, IMC Chamber of Commerce gchandrashekhar@gmail.com +91 9821147594