Budget10 released on 5 December 2011 ppt version 8 December 2011 Carbon Budget 2010 More information, data sources and data files can be found at http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget

GCP - Carbon Budget 2010 Contributors Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA Gordon Bonan National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Laurent Bopp Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Erik Buitenhuis School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Ken Caldeira Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Josep G. Canadell Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Philippe Ciais Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR  CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Thomas J. Conway NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Steven Davis Scott C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Joe L. Hackler Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Christoph Heinze University of Bergen, Norway Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Corinne Le Quéré Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, UK Andrew Lenton CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia Ivan Lima Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Gregg Marland Research Institute for Environment, Energy and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USA Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Michael R. Raupach Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Stephen Sitch School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Jerry Tijputra 2

GCP - Carbon Budget 2010 http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget Peters GP, Marland G, Le Quéré C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2011) Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi. 10.1038/nclimate1332. Published online 4 December 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332 3

Units 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons 1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions Growth rate 1990-1999 1% per year 2000-2010 3.1% per year 2010 5.9% yr 2009 -1.3% per year Uncertainty (6-10%) + - Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increased by 5.9% in 2010, with a total of 9.1±0.5 PgC emitted to the atmosphere (33.4 Pg of CO2; 1 Pg = 1 billion tons or 1000 x million tons). These emissions were the highest in human history and 49% higher than in 1990 (the Kyoto reference year). Coal burning was responsible for 52% of the fossil fuel emissions growth in 2010 (gas 23% and liquid 18%). CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2008 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2009 and 2010 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is around 6-10%, and growing as the global share of emerging economies and developing countries grows. Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.  [can106 1]Link to http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009 5

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters 2010 Growth Rates 2500 10.4% China 2000 4.1% 1500 Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) USA 1000 9.4% Russian Fed. 500 5.8% 6.8% Japan India Contributions to global emissions growth in 2010 were largest from China (0.21 Pg above 2009 levels,10.%), USA (0.06 PgC, 4.1%), India (0.05 PgC, 9.4%), Russian Federation (0.025 PgC, 5.8%), and European Union (0.022 PgC, 2.2%), with a continuously growing global share from emerging economies. Per capita emissions of developed countries remain several times larger than those of developing countries. The countries with highest absolute values of emissions are China (2.2 PgC), US (1.5 PgC), India (0.5 PgC), Russia (0.5 PgC), and Japan (0.3 PgC) although the emissions per capita in China (1.7 tC/person/y) and India (0.5) are still a fraction of the emissions e.g., in US (4.8), Russia (3.3) and Japan (2.5). 1990 2000 2010 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011 6

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples 2010 180 UK 140 Canada Australia Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) 100 Spain 60 The Netherlands 20 Denmark 1990 2000 2010 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011 7

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Growth in 2010 Table SI 1: The emissions growth globally, for developed and developing countries, and for the 10 countries with the largest absolute emissions growth in 2010. The table shows the 2010 growth and the combined 2009 and 2010 growth rate based on regression (Supplementary Methods). *Country totals do not add to the global total since a) there are global imbalances in energy trade statistics, b) global totals include emissions from nonfuel hydrocarbon products (e.g., asphalt) whereas national totals do not, c) changes in fuel stocks are not reported by many countries and we assume that globally there is no change over time, and d) emissions from bunker fuel use are included in global estimates but not national totals. Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC, Supplementary Information

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (Production and Consumption) Historic CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2010 of developed (Annex B) and developing (non- Annex B) countries with emissions allocated to production/territorial (as in the Kyoto Protocol) and the consumption of goods and services (production plus imports minus exports). The shaded areas are the trade balance (difference) between Annex B/non-Annex B production and consumption6,14. Bunker fuels are not included in this figure. Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC

Impacts of Economic Crises on C Emissions The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 was indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). However, the effect was short lived as the growth rate climbed to 5.9% in 2010, the highest annual growth rate since 2003. The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) was -1.4% y-1 during the period 1980-2000; carbon intensity only declined by -0.9% y-1 since 2000, and increased (deterioration of carbon intensity of the economy) by +0.9% y-1 in 2010. CO2 emissions in developed countries decreased 1.3% in 2008 and 7.6% in 2009, but increased 3.4% in 2010. CO2 emissions in developing countries increased 4.4% in 2008, 3.9% in 2009, and 7.6% in 2010. Based on the mean improvement in the FFCI from 2000-2010 (-0.9% y-1) and a Global Domestic Product growth rate of 4% (as estimated by the International Monetary Fund), we estimate CO2 emissions to growth 3.1±1.5% in 2011 to reach about 9.4 PgC. Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC

Top 20 CO2 FF Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2010 2500 2000 1500 Per Capita Emissions (tons C person y-1) Total Carbon Emissions (tons x 1,000,000) 1000 500 Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Population World Bank 2011

CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type 3 4 2 1 Coal 41% Oil 34% CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) Gas Cement 2010 1990 2000 Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2008 to 2010) 127% of growth Developed World CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1) Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

Carbon in Trade (2004): Emissions embodied in products Emissions associated with the consumption of goods and service (production plus imports minus exports) take into account the growing issue of countries consuming goods which are manufactured outside of the country. Developed countries had a large drop in consumption-based emissions of 7.9% in 2009, and increased of 4.9% in 2010. In developing countries the reversed occurred. 2009 marked the first time that developing countries had higher consumption-based emissions than developed countries. Emissions from the consumption of goods and services produced in emerging economies and developing countries but consumed in developed countries (as defined by Annex B from the Kyoto protocol) increased from 2.5 per cent of the share of developed countries in 1990 to 16 per cent in 2010, and continue to grow. Millions of tons (Mt) of CO2 in trade in 2004. Regional differences between where fossil fuels are burned and where goods and services that are supported by the energy that is generated are ultimately consumed, quantified by CO2 emissions (i.e. the net effect of emissions embodied in goods and services). The arrows depict largest interregional fluxes of emissions (Mt CO2 y-1) from net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds); the threshold for arrows is 100 Mt CO2 y-1. Fluxes to and from Europe are aggregated to include all member states of the EU-27. Net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds) Davis et al. 2011, PNAS; See also http://supplychainCO2.stanford.edu/ 14

CO2 Emissions from FF and LUC (1960-2010) Current LUC emissions ~10% of total CO2 emissions Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 1990-1999 1.5±0.7 PgCy-1 2000-2009 1.1±0.7 PgCy-1 1990s Emissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC 2000-2010 Emissions: 1.1±0.7 PgC Dashed line – previous estimate. CO2 emissions from deforestation and other land use change were 0.9±0.7 PgC in 2010, leading to total emissions (including fossil fuel and land use change) of 10.0±0.9 PgC. Land use change was responsible for estimated net emissions of 1.1±0.7 PgC per year for the decade of 2000s; this is about a 25% decline from the emissions of 1.5 PgC during the 1990s, though the uncertainty is large..The implementation of new land policies, higher law enforcement to stop illegal deforestation, and new afforestation and regrowth of previously deforested areas could all have contributed to this decline. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method which used the new and revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010. The uncertainty on land use change emissions is the highest of any flux component of the global carbon budget. Time (y) Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010

Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2010) -400 -200 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Tropical Temperate CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) Time (y) For the first time, land use change in the temperate world is a net carbon sink. R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2010) -200 200 400 600 800 1000 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Latin America S & SE Asia Tropical Africa CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1) Time (y) R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration End of 2010: 389.6 ppm Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1) 2010 2.36 2009 1.63 2008 1.81 2007 2.11 2006 1.83 2005 2.39 2004 1.58 2003 2.20 2002 2.40 2001 1.89 2000 1.22 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 2000 – 2010: 1.9 ppm y-1 Annual Growth Rates (decadal means) The annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 was 2.36±0.09 ppm in 2010 (ppm =  parts per million), one of the largest growth rates in the past decade. The average for the decade 2000-2009 was 1.9±0.1 ppm per year, 1.5±0.1 ppm for the decade 1990-1999, and 1.6±0.1 for the decade 1980-1989. The 2010 increase brought the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 389.6, 39% above the concentration at the start of the Industrial Revolution (about 278 ppm in 1750).  The present concentration is the highest during at least the last 800,000 years. The accumulation of atmospheric CO2 in 2010 was 5.0±0.2 Pg C, with a total cumulative of 157.5 PgC since the beginning of atmospheric high precision measurements in 1959 and 237 PgC since 1750. The rates of atmospheric CO2 accumulation are influenced by both the anthropogenic emissions and the net uptake by natural sinks (ocean and land). Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. The estimated uncertainty in the global annual mean growth rate is about 0.1 ppm/yr. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory and includes early data from the Scripps  [can106 1]Subscript – all CO2 Data Source: Thomas Conway, 2011, NOAA/ESRL + Scripts Institution

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2010 (PgC y-1) 7.9±0.5 1.0±0.7 2.5±1.0 (Residual) 4.1±0.2 Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks removed 56% of all CO2 emitted from human activities during the 1958-2010, each sink in roughly equal proportion. During this period, the size of the natural sinks has grown almost at the same pace as the growth in emissions, although year-to-year variability is large. There is the possibility, however, that the fraction of all emissions remaining in the atmosphere has a positive trend due to changes in emissions growth rate and decline in the efficiency of natural sinks. The trend in the ocean sink is estimated by using an ensemble of 5 ocean-process models for 1959-2008. For 2009 and 2010, the sink is estimated from anomalies calculated with a sub-set of these models. The models were normalized to the observed mean land and ocean sinks for 1990-2000, estimated from a range of oceanic and atmospheric observations. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The land sink is calculated as the residual of the sum of all sources minus atmosphere+ocean sinks. How the global carbon budget is put together: Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010. Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components. Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.5 PgC y-1. Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates. Current uncertainty 1 PgC. More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/global-carbon-budget-2010 2.3±0.5 (5 models) Global Carbon Project 2011; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature G; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 20

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2010) 9.1±0.5 PgC y-1 5.0±0.2 PgC y-1 50% 2.6±1.0 PgC y-1 26% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components + 0.9±0.7 PgC y-1 24% 2.4±0.5 PgC y-1 Average of 5 models Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

References cited in this ppt Boden TA, Marland G, Andres RJ (2011) Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2011 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866–18870, http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.abstract Davis SJ, Peters GP, Caldeira K (2011). The Supply Chain of CO2 Emissions. PNAS v.108, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1107409108 Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. PNAS 107: 5687-5692.  http://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687 Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/fra2010/en/ Global Carbon Project (2011) Carbon budget and trends 2010. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget International Monetary Fund (2011) World economic outlook. September 2011. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02 Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html Marland, G., K. Hamal, et al. (2009) How Uncertain Are Estimates of CO2 Emissions? Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2009.00108.x/abstract Peters GP, Marland G, Le Quéré C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2011) Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi. 10.1038/nclimate1332. Published online 4 December 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332 Peters G P, Minx J C, Weber C L, Edenhofer O (2011) Growth in emissions transfer via international trade from 1990 to 2008. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108: 8903–8908. http://www.pnas.org/content/108/21/8903 Conway T, Tans P (2011) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 16153-16230. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/16153/2010/acpd-10-16153-2010.html  

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