Trends in the Maine Labor Market Historical trends and projections to the year 2018 Key trends will accelerate in the future: baby boomers moving into retirement, globalization continues, technology and innovation redefine industries and occuapations. The consequences are far reaching and we must act to ensure continued economic growth and rising living standards. Pronounced demographic shifts and intense economic restructuring are underway. Maine's population is aging and growing slowly. Low birth rates and out-migration of young people are shaping Maine's population dynamics. Today the baby boomers range in age from 43 to 61. Over the next three decades there will be a mass exodus from the labor market into retirement. Maine's economic fortunes will be determined by how successfully we replace retiring workers and meet demands of new workers. At the same time, the nature of work increasingly demands higher levels of literacy, technology competency, and self-management. Maine Department of Labor Center for Workforce Research & Information

Demographic trends and labor force growth

Births have declined 40 percent since the height of the baby boom Births - deaths = natural population change. Natural change way down As baby boomers advance in age deaths will trend up Births expected to start to trend down again after 2012 In about 15 years Maine likely to have natural decrease -- fewer births than deaths. Need in-migration to keep population stable.

Net in-migration has become the primary source of population growth Average annual net change in population by source Migration trends swing back and forth with workforce condtions Strong net in-migration in early 2000s has given way to net out-migration last two years

The population is aging rapidly Projected population net change by age group, 2008 to 2018 55 to 74 growth due to boomers advancing age Fewer 35 to 54 -- boomers vacating age group 25-34 growth baby boom echo 0-15 growth echo of baby boom echo Each spike in births smaller than previous as families have fewer children

Half the population will be age 44+ in 2018

Labor force participation peaks around age 50 and declines at an accelerating rate with age Labor force participation by age group LF participation is highest among those age 25 to 44. The boomers are aging beyond their peak years of LF attachement. Implications: Many older people would like to remain involved in work or causes, but will only do so if flexible schedules and alternative work arrangements are available to them.

Unemployment rates have generally been lower among women than men since the 1980s Higher unemployment among men reflects restructuring of the economy -- manufacturing job losses disproportionately impact men without post-secondary education.

Female labor force participation is no longer rising Female labor force participation doubled since 1950, but no longer a source of LF growth.

attachment and peaking of the share of working women Labor force growth is slowing due to the combination of baby boomers aging beyond their peak years of labor force attachment and peaking of the share of working women LF forecasts currently only extend out to 2016. In the years following 2020 it is difficult to see how the LF can continue to grow without significant in-migration.

Demographic trends not only impact total workforce growth, but also demand for products and services and jobs related to production of those items A growing middle-age and elderly population will keep demand for health and retirement services rising. Demand for financial services will continue to rise as baby boomers increasingly focus on retirement planning. Businesses will continue to pursue productivity gains through automation and more efficient work practices as a response to slower labor supply growth. Geographic boundaries will continue to fall as consumers and businesses increasingly use technology to locate and purchase products and services, communicate, and perform administrative functions.

Industry employment trends

Service-providing industries have increased from just over half to 87 percent of jobs in less than 60 years

Service-providing industries have been the engine of job growth for decades...

... That trend is expected to continue through 2018 with more manufacturing job losses and growth in health care and other services Projected change in jobs 2008 to 2018

The outlook by sector is similar to the previous ten year period, though job gains and losses are expected to moderate. Most job growth is expected in education & health care, professional & business services, and leisure & hospitality. Manufacturing job losses are expected to continue. Intensification of global competition & technology innovation will continue to alter the industry composition of employment. Workers displaced from mfg jobs often lack the education or skills required for success in growing industries and occupations. Those workers often live beyond commuting distance to communities that are experiencing job growth.

Industry employment trends and technological change influence what occupations or skills are in demand

Occupational employment trends

The share of jobs in blue-collar occupations has steadily declined in the last five decades Same factors shifting industry mix at play with occupations. Job performance requirements are changing rapidly. Computers and other changes require higher levels of knowlege/skill. With more people working in smaller businesses, people need a wider range of skill sets and more self-management. Requires deeper knowledge and more advanced skills even for workers in lower wage jobs. Shifting mix of jobs by occ related to: Differing rates of growth by industry: Occ staffing varies by industry - tellers in banks, carpenters in construction, ... Shifting mix within each industry: rising use of ATMs & online banking sent share of tellers down and IT staff up.

The fastest job growth is expected to continue to be in professional/technical and service occupations... Projected change in jobs by occupational group, 2008 to 2018

...at the upper end of the education/training spectrum... Projected change in jobs by usual education or training requirement, 2008 to 2018

Also related to managerial and professional job growth, the fastest growth is expected in occupations at the upper end of the earnings spectrum Projected change in jobs by 2008 average wage

...Though there will continue to be more jobs with lower education/training requirements

Occupational employment trends will continue to be driven by broad demographic trends in the population, shifts in jobs by industry, and technological change