1. A Presentation to the Connecticut Business and Industry Association Michael Goodman, Ph.D. Director of Economic and Public Policy Research UMass Donahue Institute Managing Editor, Massachusetts Benchmarks May 14, 2004 Economic Outlook for Massachusetts in 2004

2. The State Economy is Finally Growing Again Source: Massachusetts Benchmarks, Bureau of Economic Analysis

3. Business Investment is Back Demand for the equipment developed by the Commonwealth’s leading industries is growing robustly

4. Exports are up significantly Global demand for Massachusetts’ electronics, medical devices, and pharmaceutical products is rising

5. Long Term Unemployment Remains a Significant Concern

6. Statewide Employment Outlook: Job growth will be modest and not likely in the same sectors that experienced job losses (many of these job loses will be permanent) Employment (in 000s) 200320042005Net Change from 2003 Share of Net Increase Total3214.73,248.03,305.198.0100% Construction133.1135.2134.4-0.6-0.6% Manufacturing333.7333.0334.10.40.4% Trade, Trans. & Utilities 579.3578.4588.116.016.3% Information95.098.0100.03.63.7% Financial Activities 229.5230.4234.35.75.8% Prof. & Bus. Services 438.7449.9468.730.731.3% Education. & Health Services 574.2585.5600.628.228.7% Leisure & Hospitality 286.9292.3298.711.711.9% Other Services118.0119.5121.02.62.6% Government424.8424.0423.7-0.2-0.2% Source: New England Economic Project

7. The Commonwealth is losing the national competition for skilled workers Since 1990, we have lost over 213,000 more residents than we have gained from the other U.S. states. Net losses were experienced even during the economic boom years of the 1990s.

8. Migrants are younger, better educated, and less likely to have been born in Massachusetts

9. Bay State’s central competitive advantage: high quality workforce An aging population and very slow-growing labor force (4 th lowest rate in the nation during the 1990s) Availability of highly educated workers essential to fueling our economic recovery and the state’s future prosperity Younger, highly-educated workers and their families choosing to leave the state erodes competitiveness What does this mean for Massachusetts?

10. For More Information For timely and comprehensive analysis of the Massachusetts economy, please visit Massachusetts Benchmarks at: www.massbenchmarks.org