1. Addressing The Boom Trends in Aging and Long-Term Care Florida Conference on AgingAugust 31, 2004

2. Trends in Aging & Long-Term Care 1.Number of aged will continue to grow 2.Increases in retirement age 3.Improved health and lower disability rates Lower rates of Medicaid use among elders Lower rates of widowhood Continuing shifts in long-term care setting Favorable long-term care nursing home utilization trends expected to carry for another 25 years Boomers not likely to overwhelm long-term care system for the next 20-30 years

3. Growth in Aging

4. Age Cohorts

5. Dependency Ratios

7. Positive Trends  Disability rates are declining and this trend is expected to continue. Between 2000 and 2050 the rate of severe disability among the elderly is projected to be cut by half.  Older Floridians are 45% less likely to require long-term nursing home care than elders from other states.  Stable rates of marriage and declining disability implies that growth in the elderly population can actually lower demand for nursing home care because:  As elderly male population grows more rapidly than the population of elder females the availability of spousal care rises.  The supply of healthy caregivers rises.

8. Lower Widowhood

9. Lower Disability Rates

10. Disability Rates Florida 2004

11. Trends in Demand NH Care

12. Trends in Nursing Home Costs

13. Nursing Home Use Growth Florida

14. Shift to ALF Care

15. Informal Long-Term Care

16. LTC Expenditures Florida

17. Florida’s Long-Term Care Costs Are Lower Than Other States

18. To control the growth in the public cost of long-term care The Office of Long-Term Care Policy Advisory Council recommends the adoption of a set of policies to address issues identified in four broad policy areas.

19. Policy Areas Access Coordination and Integration Financing and Resources Quality and Evaluation

20. Access 1.Long-term care options are to be available on the basis of service need, regardless of geographic, cultural or financial differences; 2.The long-term care system is to be accessible through multiple points, supported by a single administrative entity; 3.Specific programs to enable caregivers to provide care for at- risk persons in the community will be supported; and 4.The long-term care system will include programs for prevention, maintenance, early intervention and restoration.

21. Coordination/Integration 1. The long-term care system must reduce the level of fragmentation and duplication of services ; 2. Long-term care services and programs will be coordinated across state agencies ; 3. Coordination between acute care and long-term care is to be supported and encouraged; 4. Mental health, substance abuse and other social support services are to be integrated with long-term care; and 5.Continuity of care is to be emphasized and enforced in the long-term care system.

22. Financing/Resources 1. The effective and efficient utilization of all funding resources will be maximized through greater personal and community responsibility; 2. The effective and efficient utilization of all funding resources will be maximized through private sector involvement ; 3. The effective and efficient utilization of all funding resources will be maximized through contracting, administrative and financing innovations ; and 4.The long-term care system will safeguard the financial integrity of assessment, case management and service provision.

23. Quality/Evaluation 1. The development and training of a quality long-term care workforce will be supported; 2. The long-term care system will have a person-centered performance measurement system based on outcomes ; and 3.A long-term care information management system, with a focus on outcome measures, is necessary and will be promoted and supported.

24. Implementing Strategies Remodel Long-Term Care Delivery System Aging Resource Center Interagency Team Foster more competitive market environment Existing network of community providers to be strengthened to transition to competitive environment Strengthen Caregiver Support Programs Foster healthy ALF industry Basic array of services throughout Florida

25. Implementing Strategies (cont) Long-Term Care financing systems must have: Predictably Prioritization Expand options to all regardless of geography and ability to pay

26. Next Steps Interagency workgroup DOEA, AHCA and DCF to implement the Aging Resource Center Coordinate LTC evaluatory activities to ensure a system wide approach Work with key stakeholders to integrate LTC with acute care

27. Comments & Suggestions Horacio Soberon-Ferrer Florida Department of Elder Affairs 850-414-2000 ferrerh@elderaffairs.org