Overview of Options: Economic Development, Technology, Carbon Markets and Adaptation in a Post-2012 Regime Aaron Cosbey Associate, Climate Change and Energy, IISD Canada and the Post-2012 Climate Regime COP 11/MOP 1 Side Event, Montreal, Dec. 3, 2005

Uncertainty Answering Urgency The Context: Uncertainty Answering Urgency Environmental and development imperatives Time pressures: from the Berlin Mandate to Kyoto in force was 10 years Fundamental uncertainties: within Kyoto, within UNFCCC, outside UN, orchestra? Uncertain approach: targets (what kind?), technology cooperation, market approaches? IMPERATIVES: Anything over 2C gets us in trouble – the Atlantic thermohaline current, etc. So need to cap at 550PPM, but even then only 1 in 16 chance of getting there. 2.8 billion (2 in 5) still on less than $2 a day. 1.6 billion (1/4 of world pop) still lack access to electricity

Essentials of an Adequate Approach Reorient our societies to a sustainable development path, at least cost Address adaptation Deploy and diffuse existing technology, develop deploy and diffuse new generation Employ the market to help achieve UNFCCC objectives In that context of uncertainty, need to understand what elements have to be part of the resulting approach, esp. if it is a splintered approach. The subsequent presentations will get into the specifics. First two are basic goals. Second two are essential means. Impossible to think of achieving the goals without these.

1. Reorienting our societies toward sustainable development Achieve deep cuts Garner broad participation Work hard to foster synergies between climate change and development Minimize economic disruption Participation: short term architecture must keep the door open for future US involvement, meaningful involvement of developing countries. Economic disruption: take note of capital stock turnover cycles, use market and invest in tech.

2. Adaptation Mitigation alone is not enough – we are past the point of impact Need to integrate adaptation into policy process at local, national and international levels: PRSPs, ODA, national planning, etc. Huge role for international community: capacity is most needed where vulnerability is greatest TAR shows that impacts are already here, and more are unavoidable Need capacity to identify risks, vulnerability, and to identify policies that can address those risks, and then to implement those policies. So this has to be part of the international regime for climate change – can’t be done unilaterally or even bilaterally.

3. Technology In the short run, use existing technology more widely In the long run, new generation of tech is the only thing that can deliver deep cuts Too long-term and risky for private sector alone International agreement needed to underwrite costs, avoid duplication, agree to broad-access model of IPR.

4. The Market Market-based mechs like emission trading will be an essential element in keeping costs down. CDM, for all its faults, is a good example: low cost options, some tech transfer/development These can only be used if there is some regime that gives value to carbon – whether regional or multilateral. And they can only be effectively used if there is some signal soon that carbon will have value post-2012.

Thank you Aaron Cosbey acosbey@iisd.ca www.iisd.org/climate Many of these elements will not be achieved by piecemeal efforts, or by dawdling progress. The subsequent presentations will help us think about how the parts can contribute to a whole.