Public Opinion Chapter 7 CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

In this chapter, you will: Learn the sources of our opinions about public issues Learn the role of public opinion in a democracy Learn the uses of public opinion in politics and government Learn how public opinion is measured CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Sources of Public Opinion Sum of individual beliefs and opinions Political Socialization Process by which individuals acquire their political values and outlooks Parents and Friends Education Graduate degree likely to lean left College Professors more likely to identify as liberals Gender Men support nuclear power plants, fracking, testing product on animals Women lean Democratic CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Sources of Public Opinion Political socialization refers to the factors that shape our political opinions. These include family, friends, education, gender, race, religion, and major life events. Party identification has become the most reliable predictor of public opinion in recent years. Self-interest and political elites also influence political attitudes. How issues are framed can shift individual and collective views. Dramatic events, especially wars, also have a powerful role in shaping our opinions. CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Measuring Public Opinion Scientific surveys have come a long way since their origins in 1936. Professionals now design well-specified polls that capture popular views with a high degree of accuracy. Indeed, poll results can affect public opinion, in ways ranging from the bandwagon effect to the underdog effect. Sampling errors, response bias, and other potential flaws inevitably confer a measure of uncertainty on any survey. CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Public Opinion in a Democracy Since the founding era, some Americans have viewed public opinion as an unreliable, even dangerous, guide to government policymaking based in part on voter ignorance. Others argue that, in practice, a “rational public” is the best source of democratic decision making. One way to resolve these clashing views is to focus not on what individuals know about politics but on how many different popular views add up to the “wisdom of crowds.” CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Public Opinion and Governing If public opinion is to guide politics, three conditions must be met: The public must know what it wants, its views must be effectively communicated, and leaders must pay attention. Even strong public opinion may not be specific enough to offer policy guidance. U.S. government officials devote more resources to polling operations than do top officials in other nations. Popular views can help set governing agendas. Polls most often guide officials in determining how best to win over the public to their policies. And occasionally, when a clear majority expresses its opinion, politicians follow suit. CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Chapter Summary Scientific surveys have come a long way since the Literary Digest in 1936. Professionals now design well-specified polls that capture popular views with a high degree of accuracy. However, be cautious when reading polls, such as those without a well-defined sample (for example, online surveys). Always pay attention to the margin of error when interpreting results. Political socialization is the study of the forces that shape public opinion. The most important are family and friends, race, gender, religion, economic interests, demographics, party affiliation, the view of political elites, and defining events like war. CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Chapter Summary In a democracy, public opinion should guide the government. But are the people capable of self-rule? From the Constitutional Convention to contemporary social scientists, many experts consider public opinion to be uninformed and unreliable—and therefore a dangerous guide to decision making. Others respond that the public, taken as a whole, is a rational, reliable source of government decisions. Even if individuals do not know much, there is wisdom in crowds. CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Chapter Summary The United States devotes more resources to polling operations than other nations. Polls have become the everyday mechanism for gauging public opinion. But while scientific techniques have made polls more accurate, rising costs, plummeting response rates, the difficulty of predicting turnout, and hostility to pollsters can all make polls miss. Public officials generally balance public opinion with their own beliefs about the best decisions. If they are seen as overly faithful to poll results, the paradoxical result may be that their approval rating falls. Polls often guide administrations, not in selecting a policy, but in determining how best to win over the public to its policies. CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Chapter Summary Popular views can be especially important in setting the agenda: If something seems important to the public (and the media), politicians respond. Congress, in particular, pays attention to spikes in public opinion. Presidents find it easier to get their policies passed when public opinion is strongly in favor of that policy. CHAPTER 7: PUBLIC OPINION