1. Chapter 5 PUBLIC OPINION

2. The Vietnam War and the Public Background Tonkin Gulf incident and escalation of the war Public reaction Escalation of antiwar sentiment Richard Nixon elected president in 1968

3. The Vietnam War and the Public This story illustrates: –How government officials can sometimes lead or manipulate public opinion –How events and circumstances affect opinion –How the press can influence public opinion –How public opinion can have a strong impact on policymaking, even on foreign policy

4. Democracy and Public Opinion Public opinion: the political attitudes expressed by ordinary citizens One important test of how well democracy is working is how closely government policy corresponds to the expressed wishes of its citizens.

5. What People Know About Politics Early attempts to determine public opinion by guesswork or from the views of personal acquaintances are defective. The views of personal acquaintances, media voices, or rally audiences are often not representative of the whole public.

6. Measuring What People Think Most of the guesswork can now be eliminated by conducting an opinion poll or sample survey. Violation of the rule of random sampling in surveys can lead to inaccurate results in opinion polls. –Scientific polling techniques became the standard after the famous Literary Digest errors. –Straw polls fell out of favor –Perfectly random sampling is not feasible. Interpreting surveys

7. Individuals’ Ignorance Modern survey results consistently show that most Americans do not know or care a lot about politics. People have particular trouble with technical terms, abbreviations, and geography. The things that most Americans don’t know may not be vital. Lack of detailed knowledge or ideology does not mean that public opinion is unstable or irrelevant.

8. Collective Knowledge and Stability Americans’ collective policy preferences are very stable over a long period of time. The evidence is clear that many of the Founders’ fears of capriciousness or fluctuations in public opinion are no longer justified, if they ever were.

9. How People Feel About Politics The system in general –Level of public confidence –Political efficacy — the public’s feelings about whether the government pays any attention to ordinary people, and to whether involvement such as voting has any effect –Feelings of anger, alienation, and mistrust are closely related to many people’s judgments that the institutions of government have not been performing well.

10. Dissatisfaction With Government Performance Trends in Presidential popularity tend to fluctuate more than party loyalties or policy preferences. The public’s evaluation of the President depends on how well things are going. Evaluations of Congress have not been surveyed as regularly as those of the President, but it appears that Congress has often been unpopular.

11. Party Loyalty Party identification is the sense of belonging to a party. Party balance among voters has important effects on who rules in Washington, and especially on which party controls Congress. Since the 1960’s, there has a decline in the proportion of people who identify with one of the two parties, and a rise in the proportion of independents (broadly defined).

12. Basic Values and Beliefs Americans’ basic beliefs and values are more fundamental than opinions about specific policies. There is often a high degree of consensus about basic beliefs and values, such as: –Freedom –Economic liberty –Capitalism –Equality –Democracy

13. Variations Yet, Americans differ according to the priority given to these basic values and beliefs. Economic conservatives –emphasize economic liberty and freedom from government interference Economic liberals –favor government regulation of business and government spending for social programs Social conservatives –favor traditional social values Social liberals –favor civil liberties, abortion rights, and alternative lifestyles

14. Policy Preferences In a democracy, government should do what the citizens want it to do — it should follow citizens’ policy preferences. –Spending Programs –Social Issues abortion racial integration homosexuality –Foreign Policy isolationism unilateralism multilateralism

15. How People Differ Although it is possible to discuss American public opinion as a collective whole, there are important distinctions among different sorts of people in different circumstances. Race and ethnicity –African Americans –Hispanics –Asian Americans –White Ethnics

16. How People Differ Religion –Catholics –Jews –Mormons –Protestants Region Social class

17. How People Differ Education Gender Age

18. Does Public Opinion Strongly Influence What Government Does? “Yes it does” –end of Vietnam War –Roe v. Wade –Civil Rights Act of 1964 –A variety of studies show that policy coincides with public opinion most of the time.

19. Does Public Opinion Strongly Influence What Government Does? “ No it doesn’t” –often public opinion coincides with policy, but does not actually cause policy –government may shape public opinion outright manipulation (eg., Tonkin Gulf incident) public relations efforts

20. Conclusion Overall, public opinion seems to play an important role in policy-making, but so do a range of other political actors and institutions. The true influence of public opinion is probably less than statistical studies suggest. Influence of public opinion may vary depending on issue and its context.