1. Chapter Seven
Public Opinion

2. What is Public Opinion?
Public opinion: How people think or feel about particular things
Not easy to measure
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3. Sample Polling Data on Iraq
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4. How Polling Works
Pollsters need to pose reasonable questions that are worded fairly
They have to ask people about things for which they have some basis to form an opinion
Questions must be neutrally phrased
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5. Question Types Bad Questions: Good Questions:
What is the fastest and most economical Internet service for you?
How would you rate the career of legendary outfielder Joe Dimaggio?
Do you approve of the President’s oppressive immigration policy?
Good Questions:
How would you rate the career of baseball outfielder Joe Dimaggio?
What is the fastest Internet service for you?
Do you approve of the President’s immigration policy?
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6. Random Sampling
Random sampling is necessary to insure a reasonably accurate measure of how the entire population thinks or feels
Most important for accurate polling
For populations over 500,000, pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, insuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3%
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7. Stability in Public Opinion
Most opinions remain stable due to basic values
Opinions only change due to:
Education
War
Economic depression
Loss of job
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8. Value/Importance of Public Opinion Polls
Gov’t officials use them to decide on issues, especially close to elections
Used to decide where, how, when and who to campaign in certain areas
Academic polls are more accurate than media polls
Bad polls can be misleading
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9. Awareness and Interest
Politics are in backseat for certain people: only vote on issues that directly affect them
Majority of people don’t know about politics or political issues (TPP)
Nonvoters-little or no interest (35%of America)
Attentive public-people who understand gov’t, read and discuss (25% of America)
Part-time citizens-Little interest in politics but vote in Presidential elections (40% of American public)
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10. Why do people vote as they do?
Party Identification
Psychological factor
Loyalty of people to a political party
Most significant and lasting predictor of how a person will vote
Perceptions of the Candidates and Issues
Most important short-term factors
Charisma of the candidate
Emotional content of issues
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11. Why do people vote as they do?
Political socialization: Process by which people gain their political attitudes
Begins in childhood and continues throughout life
Family most important
Religion
School
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12. Why do people vote as they do?
Sociological Factors
Serve as general predictors NOT final word on how a person will vote
Occupation and income level
Age
Gender
Religion
Ethnic Background
Geographic Region
Family
Why is voting behavior too complicated to predict accurately by looking at any single factor?
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13. Political Ideology
Political ideology: a more or less consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue
The great majority of Americans do not think ideologically
People may have strong predispositions even if they do not satisfy the condition of being “ideological”
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14. Table 7.7: Policy Preferences of Democratic and Republican Voters
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15. Political Elites
Political elites: those who have a disproportionate amount of some valued resource
Elites influence public opinion by framing issues and stating norms
But elite influence only goes so far; they do not define problems that are rooted in personal experience
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