1. PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

2. What is Public Opinion? Public Opinion Opinion polls
How people think or feel about particular things
Opinion polls
Interviews or surveys of a sample of citizens used to estimate how the public feels about an issue

4. How Polling Works Random sample Sampling error Exit polls
All have equal opportunity to be polled
Sampling error
Discrepancy in two or more concurrent polls
Exit polls
Randomly selected interviews on election day
Factors affecting accuracy
How the question is worded
Clear/simple, unbiased
The order in which responses are listed
Sample size
For a population over 500,000, pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls (to reach at least 1,065 respondents)

5. Types of Polls
Straw Poll -- asking as many people as possible. No consideration of sampling.
Tracking polls--continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. These may be a decent measure of trends.
Exit polls--polls conducted at polling places on election day.
Deliberative polls--a new kind of poll first tried in A relatively large scientific sample of Americans (600) were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issue clusters including foreign affairs, the family, and the economy.
deliberative polls attempt to measure what the public would think if they the opportunity to thoughtfully consider the issues first.

6. Reliable Public Opinion Polls
In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell you the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted.
Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents (the 'n') and the error rate (+ or - 5%).
Any poll that tells you to call for yes and for no is unscientific and unreliable. This is not a random sample at all!

7. In pairs… Devise a polling question that is clearly and fairly worded.
Do you agree with women’s reproductive rights?
Change the question to include a biased slant.
Do you believe a woman should be allowed to murder unborn children?

8. In pairs…
Identify 3 distinct sources of political attitudes every person is exposed to.
Be clear and specific (try to avoid overlap).
Many factors influence opinion formation:
Family
Mass media
School
Peers
Religion
Political institutions and leaders

9. Political Socialization
The process by which we learn values that influence one’s political views
Sources of Political Attitudes:
-Family
60% correlation between parents and kids
-Religion
Social issues are esp. affected
-Age
The young favor some liberal and some conservative issues
-Gender
Men are becoming more conservative
Women remain liberal

10. How We Form Political Opinions
Personal
Beliefs
Political
Knowledge
Cues
From
Leaders
Political Opinions

11. Cleavages in Public Opinion
Splits, divisions
In public opinion and ideology there are not absolutes due to many factors:
-Social class
-Race/Ethnicity
-Region