OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY ON CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, Italy March 2004 FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Introduction At the request of national governments, the FAO/GIEWS usually jointly with WFP, conducts Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAMs) for countries facing widespread and serious food emergencies. Typically 20-25 countries are annually covered by these missions. Most are in Africa but recent examples also include the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Afghanistan and Iraq. The FAO methodology followed for these assessments is briefly outlined in this presentation. Further details are available from: GIEWS, FAO, Rome, Italy. E-mail: GIEWS1@fao.org; www.fao.org/giews; telephone no. (+39) 06 570 53099. The WFP part of these assessments dealing with the vulnerability analysis is available from WFP – Emergency Needs Assessment Guidelines, 1999; Emergency Field Operations Pocketbook, 2002, e-mail: emergency.preparedness@wfp.org; and the FAO Guidelines. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Purpose & Objectives of CFSAMs The primary purpose of CFSAMs is to provide accurate, timely and credible information on imminent food security problems in a country or a region so that appropriate actions can be taken by the governments, the international community and others to minimize the impact of man-made or natural disasters on the affected populations. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

THREE MAIN COMPONENTS OF FAO/WFP CFSAMs FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

THE FINAL JOINT REPORT Integrated Picture of Food Balance, Gap and Food Assistance Needs FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Table of Content of a Typical CFSAM Report (Adapted from ETHIOPIA 2004 Report) Mission Highlights 1. OVERVIEW 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 2.1 Macroeconomic situation 2.2 Population 2.3 Agricultural sector 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2003 3.1 General 3.2 Rainfall 2003 3.3 Area planted 3.4 Factors affecting yields 3.5 Other crops 3.6 Livestock 3.7 Cereal and pulse production forecast 3.8 Secondary season (Belg) 2002, 2003 and 2004 4. CROP PRODUCTION SITUATION BY REGION 5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION 5.1 Agricultural markets and prices 5.2 Grain supply/demand balance 6. EMERGENCY FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS 6.1 Review of Emergency Food Aid in 2003 6.2 Household Food Security Outlook in 2004 6.3 Nutrition 6.4 Relief Food Aid Requirements in 2004 6.5 Food Basket Considerations 6.6 Local Purchases 6.6 Emergency Food Security Reserve 6.8 Implementation Whenever it is relevant, public health issues such as the HIV/AIDS affecting food security and agriculture are also included. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Economic Analysis FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Macroeconomic Profile of the Country National Socio-Economic Parameters Socio-Economic Conditions of the most affected Agriculture Sector in the National Economy FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Economic Parameters - Domestic Economic Growth/Decline – GNP/GDP, Purchasing Power Parity, per capita levels Fiscal Position – Deficit, govt. spending, Inflation – food price inflation, effect on purchasing power Unemployment – formal/informal sectors FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Economic Parameters - External National Trade Balance Position - Currency Position – Exchange rate changes, reserves, etc. National debt FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Socio-Economic Conditions of the Most Affected Per Capita or Household incomes In-kind Wage Earnings Income Distribution HIV/AIDS and other factors FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

General Development Indicators Human Development Index Poverty levels – various definitions FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Agriculture Sector in the National Economy Size and Share of the Sector Employment and Livelihood, Dependence on Agriculture Export Contributions of Agriculture Ag. & economic policy changes FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Food Production/Balance FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

National Food Balance Sheet Domestic Availability Total Utilization Import Requirements FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Table. Country X: Total grain supply/demand balance, January–December 2004 (‘000 tonnes) Domestic availability 13 800 Opening stocks Production Main season Secondary season 500 13 300 13 000 300 Total utilization 14 010 Food use Feed use Seed use Losses Exports Closing stocks 10 944 650 1390 70 656 Import requirement 210 Commercial imports Food aid received and pledged 50 60 Uncovered deficit 100 FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Domestic Availability Opening stocks Domestic production Commercial and concessional imports FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Stocks: Opening and Closing On-Farm Stocks Private Stocks Publicly-Held Stocks Stocks in Ports and Transit FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Crop Production Estimation Information – GOs, NGOs, Organizations Macrolevel – Satellite imagery and data, Rainfall data Farmer surveys, crop cutting experiments Factors affecting current production Market/trader visits – cross-checks Yield comparison with last, normal, best, worst Other important sources of food and income FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Import Requirements Commercial import capacity Concessional imports Uncovered deficit Of which emergency food aid pledged/anticipated FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Commercial Food Imports (Ability and willingness to import by public and private sectors) Import capacity Export earnings – historical, current Import parity prices Other priorities for imports Commercial market capacity (effective demand) Degree of currency control Foreign exchange for food imports Degree of grain marketing control Private versus government trading FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Total Food Utilization Human consumption Apparent consumption rates Population estimates Feed use Seed use Industrial uses Post-harvest losses Exports Closing stocks FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Vulnerability Assessment FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Vulnerability/Needs Assessment (WFP) Review of emergency food aid Household food security outlook for next year Nutrition status Coping mechanisms Food aid needs and targeting of assistance Relief food aid requirements in 2004 Food basket considerations Local purchases Emergency food security reserves Logistics issues Implementation and other issues FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Short Term Food Security Strategy Number of people in need of assistance and the volume and composition of food aid (WFP) Reconciliation of the national food gap (FAO side) and the total assistance requirement (WFP side) Recommendations FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

If you have any comments or suggestions on the methodology, special reports, or this presentation, please send them to: GIEWS1@fao.org FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy