Research, Evaluation and Development Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 November 15, 2016 The Ripple Effect The R/E/D Group Research, Evaluation and Development Syracuse, NY

The Ripple Effect 2 Considerations: Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Considerations: > Changes in Kindergarten class size > The current enrollments > In or out-migration > The number in private or parochial schools > The number in home schooling > The number in out-of-district programs > The number of incarcerated students > The number in charter schools > High school leavers > The economy 2

The Ripple Effect 3 Key Change Variables: Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Key Change Variables: > Changes in Kindergarten Class size > The current enrollments > In or out-migration > Economy 3

Enrollments – Past, Present, and Future: Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 1. Kindergarten through Grade 12 2. Elementary Schools 3. Middle Schools 4. High Schools 5. Conclusions Enrollments – Past, Present, and Future: The Ripple Effect 4

The Ripple Effect Live Births in District (LBWVL) Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 Live Births in District (LBWVL) Compared to Kindergarten (KE) Five Years Later The Ripple Effect The trends in births in the district establish the estimated Kindergarten classes for the next three years and then we use an estimate based on history. Actual Projected

Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect

The Ripple Effect Assumptions : Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Assumptions : > Kindergartens will be smaller than12th grades > In-migration will offset some attrition > The Economy will continue its recovery > Other factors will stay stable for the study period

K -12 Five Year History 2012 - 2017 The Ripple Effect 8 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 K -12 Five Year History 2012 - 2017 The Ripple Effect 8

The Ripple Effect Enrollments Projected from 2017-2018 to 2026-2027 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Enrollments Projected from 2017-2018 to 2026-2027 .

The Ripple Effect Elementary School Five Year History Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 Elementary School Five Year History The Ripple Effect

The Ripple Effect Elementary School Five Year Projections Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Elementary School Five Year Projections

The Ripple Effect Country Parkway Projections Current Year 534 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Country Parkway Projections Current Year 534 2017-2018 547 2018-2019 2019-2020 583 2020-2021 591 2021-2022 600

The Ripple Effect Dodge Projections Current Year 520 2017-2018 518 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Dodge Projections Current Year 520 2017-2018 518 2018-2019 2019-2020 521 2020-2021 533 2021-2022 536

The Ripple Effect Forest Projections Current Year 546 2017-2018 561 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Forest Projections Current Year 546 2017-2018 561 2018-2019 555 2019-2020 565 2020-2021 577 2021-2022 574

The Ripple Effect Heim Projections Current Year 621 2017-2018 616 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Heim Projections Current Year 621 2017-2018 616 2018-2019 609 2019-2020 629 2020-2021 634 2021-2022 641

The Ripple Effect Maple East Projections Current Year 581 2017-2018 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Maple East Projections Current Year 581 2017-2018 564 2018-2019 550 2019-2020 535 2020-2021 545 2021-2022

The Ripple Effect Maple West Projections Current Year 646 2017-2018 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Maple West Projections Current Year 646 2017-2018 615 2018-2019 2019-2020 590 2020-2021 600 2021-2022 561

The Ripple Effect Middle School Five Year History Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Middle School Five Year History

The Ripple Effect Middle School Five Year Projection Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 Middle School Five Year Projection The Ripple Effect

The Ripple Effect Casey Projections Current Year 695 2017-2018 707 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Casey Projections Current Year 695 2017-2018 707 2018-2019 674 2019-2020 646 2020-2021 634 2021-2022 629

The Ripple Effect Heim Projections Current Year 672 2017-2018 649 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Heim Projections Current Year 672 2017-2018 649 2018-2019 641 2019-2020 630 2020-2021 596 2021-2022 589

The Ripple Effect Mill Projections Current Year 860 2017-2018 875 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Mill Projections Current Year 860 2017-2018 875 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 811 2021-2022 818 .

The Ripple Effect Transit Projections Current Year 983 2017-2018 979 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Transit Projections Current Year 983 2017-2018 979 2018-2019 1001 2019-2020 949 2020-2021 900 2021-2022 874

The Ripple Effect High School Five Year History Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect High School Five Year History

The Ripple Effect High School Five Year Projections Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect High School Five Year Projections

The Ripple Effect East Projections Current Year 1031 2017-2018 1010 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect East Projections Current Year 1031 2017-2018 1010 2018-2019 1009 2019-2020 1007 2020-2021 2021-2022 994

The Ripple Effect North Projections Current Year 1315 2017-2018 1388 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect North Projections Current Year 1315 2017-2018 1388 2018-2019 1451 2019-2020 2020-2021 1461 2021-2022 1423

The Ripple Effect South Projections Current Year 968 2017-2018 967 Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect South Projections Current Year 968 2017-2018 967 2018-2019 926 2019-2020 911 2020-2021 903 2021-2022 900

The Ripple Effect Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Conclusions: Barring large increases of new students, enrollments will decrease slowly over the next five years. No major building additions/changes or closings are indicated by the projected enrollments. No changes in the current feeder patterns are indicated by the projected enrollments. The Board should annually review enrollments to monitor changes in current trends. A special thank you to the administration and staff for making this report a pleasure to complete.

The Ripple Effect Steven Grossman EdD The R/E/D Group Syracuse, NY Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017 The Ripple Effect Steven Grossman EdD The R/E/D Group Syracuse, NY