Enrollment Projections Middletown Township Public Schools

Enrollment Projections Middletown Township Public Schools
Presented on: June 21, Presented by: Stan Slachetka, PP, AICP

Projection Methodology
Cohort Survival Model Uses historic enrollment data and birth records to estimate future enrollments Growth Model Takes into consideration a community’s growth rate to estimate the amount of additional school age children to be generated from new residential development Uses certificates of occupancy (COs), approved and pending development applications, and demographic multipliers to predict enrollments Excludes age-restricted development

Glossary (1 of 2) Cohort Cohort survival ratio In-migration
The number of students in a specific class as it progresses through each grade level Cohort survival ratio The ratio between the class size at one grade level to the class size at the next highest grade level In-migration The number of new students added between each grade

Glossary (2 of 2) Demographic multiplier
The estimated number of school children to be generated from a residential unit Based on national and regional studies of the actual number of school children generated by residential development Impacted by: Type of residential unit Number of bedrooms Price of unit

Historic Enrollment Year Pre-K(3) Pre-K(4) K 1 2 3 4 5 ∑ K-5 6 7 8
∑ 6-8 9 10 11 12 ∑ 9-12 Sp. Ed. (E.S.) Sp. Ed. (M.S.) Sp. Ed. (H.S.) ∑ 09-10 107 735 688 699 654 673 690 4,139 684 682 672 2,038 661 670 643 640 2,614 542 389 558 10,387 10-11 77 678 777 662 671 633 679 4,100 675 691 2,048 607 656 653 638 2,554 556 423 522 10,280 11-12 86 649 698 751 632 659 620 4,009 663 697 2,042 605 608 641 637 2,491 571 404 468 10,071 12-13 83 646 676 685 619 639 4,000 627 1,952 634 693 2,620 573 372 545 10,145 13-14 95 613 651 655 721 3,904 648 625 660 1,933 587 635 597 578 2,397 567 397 530 9,823 14-15 50 73 614 631 716 3,852 616 617 1,884 591 623 577 2,378 547 434 525 9,743 15-16 55 64 609 604 606 628 629 3,710 726 612 1,999 588 586 585 2,365 453 515 9,719 Note: Special education totals include self-contained and mainstreamed students Source: Annual Applications for State School Aide (ASSA)

Historic Enrollment

Historic and Projected Births
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 650 639 612 615 628 626 625 Source: NJ Department of Labor and Workforce Development ( ), T&M Associates ( )

Historic Development Activity
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average Certificates of Occupancy 88 74 51 52 38 58 Demolition Permits 16 17 21 13 43 37 28 Net 72 57 30 39 -14 8 14 29

Future Residential Development
Location Unit Type Status CO Issuance Total Units Units Completed Units to be Completed Years to Buildout from Start Toll Brothers Highway 35 & Kings H’way East 2-4 Units Anticipated 350 - 3 Block 1002, Lot 75, LLC 824 Nut Swamp Road SF Detached Approved 2017 6 1 Meadowview 628 Main Street Apartments 2020 38 American Properties Taylor Lane 245 2 62 Center Avenue, LLC 62 Center Avenue Pending Approval 4 American Midd. II 205 Taylor Lane 18 Bamm Hollow/Toll NJ III 215 Sunnyside Road Under Construction 190 9 181 Four Ponds 307 Middletown-Lincroft Road 228 Atlantic Pier Highway 36 & Sears Avenue 40 Tanglewood Farms 450 Kings Highway East 2016 20 Total: 1,130 Annual Average of 5-Year Projection: 226 Historic Annual Average: 29 Net Increase over Historic Average: 197

Development Multipliers
Recent Developments Unit Type (Corresponds with Annual Multiplier) Est’d. No. of Bed-rooms Annual Net Increase Annual Multiplier (Public School Children) Total Public School Children (Annual Multiplier × Annual Net Increase × 5) School Years to Comple-tion Increase per Academic Year During Buildout K-6 7-9 10-12 Toll Brothers 2-4 Units 2 to 3 60.9 0.20 0.06 0.07 62.10 17.66 20.70 3 20.701 5.886 6.900 Block 1002, Lot 75, LLC SF Detached 3 to 4 1.0 0.38 0.13 0.10 1.97 0.68 0.50 1 1.967 0.678 0.501 Meadowview Apartments 1 to 2 6.6 0.03 4.21 1.06 0.83 4.214 1.058 0.826 American Properties 42.6 43.47 12.36 14.49 2 21.736 6.180 7.245 62 Center Avenue, LLC 0.7 1.31 0.45 0.33 1.312 0.452 0.334 American Midd. II 3.1 5.90 2.04 1.50 5.902 2.035 1.503 Bamm Hollow/Toll NJ III 31.5 59.35 20.47 15.11 19.784 6.822 5.038 Four Ponds 39.7 40.46 11.50 13.49 20.228 5.751 6.743 Atlantic Pier 7.0 4.44 1.11 0.87 4.436 1.113 0.870 Tanglewood Farms 3.5 6.56 2.26 1.67 3.279 1.131 0.835 Total: 229.77 69.59 69.49 Source of Annual Multiplier: Center for Urban Policy Research

Enrollment Projection (District-Level)
Year Pre-K(3) Pre-K(4) K 1 2 3 4 5 ∑ K-5 6 7 8 ∑ 6-8 9 10 11 12 ∑ 9-12 Sp. Ed. (E.S.) Sp. Ed. (M.S.) Sp. Ed. (H.S.) ∑ 16-17 38 54 561 626 592 615 629 3,615 637 725 613 1,974 606 590 580 576 2,353 499 408 495 9,437 17-18 55 574 588 624 589 591 622 3,587 648 644 733 2,025 569 616 593 2,357 419 496 9,473 18-19 584 599 618 586 595 3,566 638 653 650 1,941 677 578 617 2,462 492 402 518 19-20 573 600 570 605 581 3,516 602 1,892 680 572 608 2,455 485 391 517 9,350 20-21 585 557 598 3,466 635 1,821 596 671 562 2,426 478 377 511 9,171

Enrollment Projection (District-Level)

Enrollment Projection (School-Level, Total Enrollment)
Middletown High School North 1,437 1,441 1,506 1,505 1,487 Middletown High School South 1,411 1,412 1,475 1,467 1,450 Bayshore Middle School 662 679 650 640 617 Thompson Middle School 987 1,025 996 971 937 Thorne Middle School 734 739 696 672 644 Bayview 376 365 357 353 351 Ocean Avenue 287 279 273 271 270 Fairview 283 297 307 316 303 Harmony 455 443 435 431 429 Leonardo 218 213 209 206 205 Lincroft 475 496 515 492 473 Middletown Village 379 394 403 390 384 Navesink 269 265 259 256 253 New Monmouth 399 388 380 374 Nut Swamp 527 513 502 493 Port Monmouth 238 231 226 223 222 River Plaza 301 292 286 281 Total 9,437 9,473 9,350 9,171

Enrollment Projection (School-Level, 2016-2017)
Pre-K(3) Pre-K(4) K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Sp. Ed. (E.S.) Sp. Ed. (M.S.) Sp. Ed. (H.S.) School Total Middletown High School North - 306 300 292 284 255 1,437 Middletown High School South 291 289 240 1,411 Bayshore Middle School 173 190 164 134 662 Thompson Middle School 274 311 265 136 987 Thorne Middle School 189 224 183 138 734 Bayview 46 53 56 55 52 60 376 Ocean Avenue 44 48 42 40 38 21 287 Fairview 43 45 17 283 Harmony 22 30 51 87 455 Leonardo 39 31 29 32 16 218 Lincroft 70 69 74 79 86 37 475 Middletown Village 50 49 58 61 379 Navesink 35 36 47 269 New Monmouth 77 399 Nut Swamp 73 84 82 78 527 Port Monmouth 34 19 238 River Plaza 41 301

Pre-K(3) Pre-K(4) K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Sp. Ed. (E.S.) Sp. Ed. (M.S.) Sp. Ed. (H.S.) School Total Middletown High School North - 287 313 298 256 1,441 Middletown High School South 281 303 294 293 240 1,412 Bayshore Middle School 176 169 197 137 679 Thompson Middle School 283 279 320 142 1,025 Thorne Middle School 188 196 216 139 739 Bayview 47 49 55 51 50 58 365 Ocean Avenue 44 39 35 40 20 Fairview 46 48 42 45 297 Harmony 21 30 52 85 443 Leonardo 36 32 31 28 16 213 Lincroft 63 70 77 80 89 41 496 Middletown Village 54 53 59 394 Navesink 37 34 38 265 New Monmouth 17 43 75 388 Nut Swamp 73 86 79 513 Port Monmouth 33 18 231 River Plaza 292

Pre-K(3) Pre-K(4) K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Sp. Ed. (E.S.) Sp. Ed. (M.S.) Sp. Ed. (H.S.) School Total Middletown High School North - 342 293 311 267 1,506 Middletown High School South 335 284 306 298 251 1,475 Bayshore Middle School 173 171 174 131 650 Thompson Middle School 282 287 140 996 Thorne Middle School 182 195 188 696 Bayview 48 49 50 56 47 57 357 Ocean Avenue 45 44 40 34 38 20 273 Fairview 46 21 307 Harmony 30 52 51 83 435 Leonardo 39 36 32 27 15 209 Lincroft 64 73 77 85 89 43 515 Middletown Village 54 53 60 63 403 Navesink 37 35 33 259 New Monmouth 17 380 Nut Swamp 75 81 79 71 502 Port Monmouth 18 226 River Plaza 286

Pre-K(3) Pre-K(4) K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Sp. Ed. (E.S.) Sp. Ed. (M.S.) Sp. Ed. (H.S.) School Total Middletown High School North - 301 346 289 302 267 1,505 Middletown High School South 294 334 283 306 250 1,467 Bayshore Middle School 166 169 177 129 640 Thompson Middle School 266 280 136 971 Thorne Middle School 170 188 126 672 Bayview 47 50 52 51 46 56 353 Ocean Avenue 45 40 37 35 36 20 271 Fairview 48 22 316 Harmony 21 30 82 431 Leonardo 39 29 28 15 206 Lincroft 58 69 74 79 85 87 41 492 Middletown Village 53 61 59 390 Navesink 34 32 44 256 New Monmouth 17 43 72 376 Nut Swamp 75 76 496 Port Monmouth 33 18 223 River Plaza 42

Pre-K(3) Pre-K(4) K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Sp. Ed. (E.S.) Sp. Ed. (M.S.) Sp. Ed. (H.S.) School Total Middletown High School North - 302 303 338 279 264 1,487 Middletown High School South 294 293 333 283 247 1,450 Bayshore Middle School 161 160 172 124 617 Thompson Middle School 259 282 132 937 Thorne Middle School 166 176 181 121 644 Bayview 47 50 51 52 56 351 Ocean Avenue 45 41 37 32 38 20 270 Fairview 44 48 46 21 Harmony 22 30 81 429 Leonardo 39 29 25 15 205 Lincroft 58 63 70 76 79 89 473 Middletown Village 53 57 384 Navesink 34 33 31 35 253 New Monmouth 17 43 72 374 Nut Swamp 74 82 73 71 36 493 Port Monmouth 222 River Plaza 42 40 19 281

Enrollment Projection (School-Level, Elementary Schools)

Enrollment Projection (School-Level, Middle Schools)

Enrollment Projection (School-Level, High Schools)

Historic and Projected Enrollment (School-Level, Total Enrollment)
Historic Enrollment Projected Enrollment Middletown High School North 1,490 1,477 1,439 1,437 1,441 1,506 1,505 1,487 Middletown High School South 1,426 1,411 1,412 1,475 1,467 1,450 Bayshore Middle School 667 642 672 662 679 650 640 617 Thompson Middle School 947 945 1,032 987 1,025 996 971 937 Thorne Middle School 715 731 748 734 739 696 644 Bayview 419 405 387 376 365 357 353 351 Ocean Avenue 304 313 287 279 273 271 270 Fairview 312 283 297 307 316 303 Harmony 484 501 506 455 443 435 431 429 Leonardo 231 232 233 218 213 209 206 205 Lincroft 510 491 456 475 496 515 492 473 Middletown Village 416 413 391 379 394 403 390 384 Navesink 291 294 282 269 265 259 256 253 New Monmouth 457 412 399 388 380 374 Nut Swamp 552 575 565 527 513 502 493 Port Monmouth 266 247 249 238 226 223 222 River Plaza 325 314 301 292 286 281 Total 9,823 9,743 9,719 9,437 9,473 9,350 9,171

Key Findings Total enrollment has declined between the and school years Total decline of 668 students or 6.4 percent Total enrollment will continue to decline between the and school years Projected decline of 282 students or 2.9 percent Total enrollment will stabilize for a period of three school years from the school year Result of in-migration of new students from new residential units Total enrollment will resume decline from the school year

Caveats Reliability of projections decreases with age
Economic trends and housing market Expected dates of completion of new units may change Additional, unforeseen residential development may occur Potential regulatory landscapes Changes in catchment areas and student distribution will impact school-level projections Demographic change will impact enrollment Older population generates less births Younger population generates more births

Summary The projections are based on the state-recognized cohort survival model Future enrollments based on historic enrollment trends Cohort survival model modified with growth mode, because anticipated residential development exceeds historic residential development Enrollment will stabilize as new students are generated by new residential units, but toward the end of the projection period enrollment will resume historic decline Given caveats, it is important to monitor enrollment

Enrollment Projections Middletown Township Public Schools

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Enrollment Projections Middletown Township Public Schools"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback

Log in

Auth with social network:

Enrollment Projections Middletown Township Public Schools

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Enrollment Projections Middletown Township Public Schools"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback