1 Methodology to model the future energy scenario for China Kejun JIANG Energy Research Institute, China UNFCCC Workshop on emissions projections of Annex I Parties 6-8 September 2004 Wissenschaftszentrum Bonn ERI, China

2 Framework of IPAC ERI, China IPAC-SGM IPAC-AIM/tech IPAC-Emission IPAC/Tech IPAC-TIMER IPAC/AIM-Local Energy demand and supply Price/investment Economic impact Medium/long-term analysis Medium/short term analysis Technology assessment Detailed technology flow Region analysis Medium/short analysis Energy demand and supply Technology policy IPAC-MATERIAL Energy demand and supply Full range emission Price, resource, technology Medium-long term analysis Economic impact Environment industry Pollutant emission Medium/long-term analysis Technology development Environment impact Technology policy AIM-airIPAC-health Energy demand and supply Price/investment Medium/long-term analysis

3 Understand future energy: a multiple model approach IPAC-AIM/technology model: Bottom-up model for China IPAC-emission model: global model IPAC-SGM: CGE model IPAC-Ele: power generation model IPAC-AIM/transport IPAC-AIM/local: regional model for China

4 Linkage in IPAC Common parameters Bottom-up model AIM/Tech MESSAGE AIM/Local Top-Down SGM TIMER IGEM IPAC-e Technology strategy Environmen t economy Energy Strategy sectors Energy and Emission scenario Dynamic economy General equilibrium Parameter Common scenario Regions/Beijing IPAC-Air IPAC-Health

5 ERI: IPAC-AIM/Technology model Bottom-up model for China 26 sectors Least cost option model More than 500 technologies Medium-term scenario(2030)

6 Structure of IPAC- AIM/ Technology model Energy Energy Technology Energy Service - Oil - Coal - Gas - Solar - (Electricity) - Boiler - Power generation - Blast furnace - Air conditioner - Automobile - Heating - Lighting - Steel products - Cooling - Transportation Energy Database for ChinaTechnology Database for China - Population growth - Economic growth - Industrial structure - Employees - Lifestyle - Energy type - Energy price - Energy constraints - CO2 emission factor - Technology price - Energy consumption - Service supplied - Share - Lifetime Socio-economic Scenario for China Service Demands Technology Selection Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions Structure of IPAC-AIM/Technology Model

7 Technology List ERI, China

8 Steel production process in China Coke makingSintering Iron makingPig Iron ConvertorOpen HearthElectric Furnace Direct Reduction DIOS or COREX Recycled steel Casting Heating Hot Rolling Steel Heating Cool Rolling Steel Continuous Casting Steel making

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10 Identify efficiency promised technologies

11 ERI: IPAC-AIM/Local model Bottom-up model for 31 provinces in China 9 sectors More than 500 large point sources Focus on regional development

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13 ERI: IPAC-AIM/Transport model Application of IPAC-AIM/technology model for transport For China, Beijing(extra large city), Taiyuan(large city), and Langfang(small city)

14 IPAC-Emission Partial equilibrium model Global model:9 regions 3 economic sector: industry, building and transport Energy sources: coal,oil, natural gas, modern biomass, hydro, nuclear, unconventional oil, unconventional gas, wind and solar Cover all emission source: energy activities, industrial process and land use Technology description: medium level cover around 40 technologies Long-term analysis up to gases:CO2 CH4 NOx, N2O CO SO2 HFC PFC SF6)

15 IPAC-Emission

16 ERI: IPAC-SGM A CGE model dynamic model 22 sectors Energy, economic activities and environment issues Up to gases

17 Module of SGM

18 Economy Target of China in 2020 Government Target: Overall wealthy society On the basis of economy structure optimal and increasing profit, GDP will be four time in 2020 comparing with that in 2000 realize fundamental industrialization Take a new way for industry development continually increase ability for sustainable development

19 GDP Per Capita

20 Average living area per capita, m 2

21 Car Ownership

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25 Primary Energy Demand Scenarios Year Mtce