PAF 101 Module 4, Lecture 6 "Spoonfeeding, in the long run, teaches nothing but the shape of the spoon."  ~EM Forster

Class Agenda Announcements Dale Carnegie Competition Debriefing Assignment for Next Class

8.2 Graph Clarification In “How to Get an A” on the graphs, it says to not use a screenshot but the module says to use a screenshot You can use a screenshot However you get the graph into the module is fine as long as it matches the formatting guidelines

Competition Points Winners Losers Group # Points 9 31 2 30 8 15 28 3 27 14 26 5 25 18 17 24 7 23 6 22 10 13 12 21 16 20 11 19 1 4 Winners Losers As of 11/2/16

Dale Carnegie Featuring Mary

Competition Results Group 2 won… again. They receive 5 points All other groups receive 3 points No groups received zero points (although a couple of them may have deserved it)

Competition Debriefing Exercises Now get ready for more points! You will have the opportunity to gain more points awarded by Coplin. This competition is not rigged, despite what many of you think.

Module 4 Debriefing Instructions We will call one representative from your group It is possible for your group to be called on more than once, but not likely. Confer with your group quietly so that you don’t give away the answers to other groups.

Module 4 Competition Problem: The dropout rate at Syracuse University, in Syracuse, New York is too high. Proposed Policy: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000.

Data School Year First Year Drop Out Rate 2012-2013 7.6% 2013-2014 8.3% 2014-2015 9.9% 2015-2016e 9.1% Source: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment

Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 State your societal problem here, (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees. Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Office of Financial Aid

Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 State your societal problem here, (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees. Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Office of Financial Aid Bullet 1: Not stated as a societal problem. No geographic location. No too much/too little Bullet 2: Correct Bullet 3: Correct

Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences. List and explain the most significant benefit here: SU will increase revenue Rating (1-3): 2 Justification for rating: SU is always looking for more money. List and explain the most significant cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid Rating (1-3): 1 Justification for rating: This will not cost a lot.

Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences. Problem 1: Most obvious benefit not listed – The dropout rate will decrease. List and explain a benefit here: SU will increase revenue Rating (1-3): 2 Justification for rating: SU is always looking for more money. List and explain a cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid Rating (1-3): 1 Justification for rating: This will not cost a lot. Problem 2: Incorrect justification. Should justify WHY you chose the rating (1, 2, 3) rather than why the benefit or cost is listed. Problem 3: Same as Problem 2. Doesn’t justify rating. Also, this justification is incorrect because spending more money would cost more. Correct: This should have a rating of 2 because the high cost is a burden on the university.

Exercise 8.1B Drop Out Rate Provide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8. Drop Out Rate Time Period Number of [Variable] Source or Rationale for estimation 2013 7.6% Professor Coplin 2014 8.3% 2015 9.9% 2016 9.1%

Exercise 8.1B Drop Out Rate Problem 2: Incomplete title. Should say: Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University (2012-2016e) Provide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8. Drop Out Rate Time Period Number of [Variable] Source or Rationale for estimation 2013 2013-2014 7.6% Professor Coplin 2014 2014-2015 8.3% 2015 2015-2016 9.9% 2016 2016-2017e 9.1% Problem 3: No specific variable within the brackets. Should be: Percentage of Drop Outs Problem 1: Should be in academic years and indicate which years are estimate. Problem 4: Incorrect source. Correct: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment

Exercise 8.2A School Year Drop Out Rate 2013-2014 7.6% 2014-2015 8.3% 2015-2016 9.9% 2016-2017e 9.1% A. Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition. Write the percent change here: -8.1% Show the original formula and your calculations here: [(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change [(9.1-9.9)/9.9]x100 = -8.1%

Exercise 8.2A School Year Drop Out Rate 2013-2014 7.6% 2014-2015 8.3% 2015-2016 9.9% 2016-2017e 9.1% A. Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition. Write the percent change here: -8.1% Show the original formula and your calculations here: [(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change [(9.1-9.9)/9.9]x100 = -8.1% Correct Calculation: [(8.3 – 7.6) / 7.6] X 100 = 9.2% Problem 1: APPLIES TO BOTH BULLETS! Incorrect calculation. Uses data points for the last two years instead of the first two years.

Exercise 8.3 First year: 2017-2018 Second year: 2018-2019 State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly, indicate why you have chosen those years. State what three years you set your benchmark for here: First year: 2017-2018 Second year: 2018-2019 Third year: 20120-2021 Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years.

Exercise 8.3 First year: 2017-2018 Second year: 2018-2019 State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly, indicate why you have chosen those years. State what three years you set your benchmark for here: First year: 2017-2018 Second year: 2018-2019 Third year: 2020-2021 Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years. Bullet 1: Incorrect spacing of years. Need consistent intervals. Bullet 2: Poor justification. Should talk about the expected rapidness/slowness of the policy’s effect and possibly how the years will show how steadily/dramatically changes will occur.

Exercise 8.4 (Graph) Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in 8.3.

Exercise 8.4 (Graph) No title. Correct using these years: Historical and Forecast Graph for First Year Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University: 2012-2018f Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in 8.3. Y-axis should have title: Percentage of First Year Drop Outs Data points should have numerical values above them. 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f Only forecasted for 2 years! *Need 3 X-axis title should be “Academic Years” Change Title and Axis Values (i.e. 2012 should be 2012-2013) No source. Correct: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment

Exercise 8.4 (Justification) Write a clear justification of your forecast by using the ideas discussed in 8.4 of the chapter here: The forecast follows the same pattern as the historical data that shows an increase in the dropout rate. The trend is approaching the outer limit which is why the graph starts to level off for the last forecast.

A Note Regarding 8.4: Do not forget to BRIEFLY cite a player to justify your forecast Also need to cite Maxwell Manual Use pages 94-95 for this section Must internally cite both the sources

Helpful Hints Be sure to justify the rating (1, 2, 3) you give the benefit or cost rather than why the benefit or cost is listed. Benchmarks can only be set for the years AFTER the policy is implemented. Label forecasted and estimated data points! Be realistic with your benchmarks. Just because a policy is implemented does not mean a societal problem will be ameliorated. Put a title on data charts (Ex. 8.1)

For Next Class Competition debriefing day 2 Remember: you cannot email your TA with questions within 24 hours of the module being due (12pm Tuesday) Module due 11/9