WHAT IS “SECURITY”; WHAT IS CONFLICT? Why does “intl.” security matter to us? What is “world peace”? Maybe about more than war. Should we always prefer peace? “War isn’t the answer” TYPES OF WAR (Some definitions) Hegemonic war – conflict among two or more global powers Total war vs. limited war Civil wars and coup d’ états (coups) Guerilla/insurgencies wars and counterinsurgencies Terrorism (low intensity, non-state violence against civilians) Genocide WMDs and war Preemptive war (can be legal as an extension of self defense) vs. preventative (not legal without Sec. Council approval)
THE CAUSES OF WAR: INDIVIDUALS? Are we innately violent? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtCgquOsXeo Key fact: War is a constant: https://www.vox.com/2015/6/23/8832311/war-casualties-600-years (same as the previous chart on death rate over time) Key fact in that chart: Most people don’t fight The western tradition: Natural law, Hobbes, James Madison Humans and the curse of the thumb. Most mammals do not kill each other, but Chimpanzees and humans do quite a lot of this (But, but, but… Dual human impulses) Gender, age, and fighting… The share of young males is a key factor Why do we things in groups that we wouldn’t do as individuals Primordialism: Identity /Tribal instincts Nationalism and elite mobilization of identity Misperceptions by leaders lead to war What kinds of problems do all leaders have? Wishful thinking, attribution error, in-group bias
THE CAUSES OF WAR: STATE AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURES The democratic peace thesis – Immanuel Kant (liberalism)… Actually democracies pretty violent Thomas Friedman: Dell theory of conflict Domestic economic and resources issues: Location matters Landlocked; # of dyads) Why might it be better to sometimes let wars wage until settlement? Notice where most conflict in the world is today. Resources matter: Two in particular: % of unemployed young males; Presence of lootable assets Regime types and war Checks and balances; group think/ narcissism in leaders Information flow is better in free societies: Democracies don’t start wars they lose Professionalization of the military Accountability to the selectorate, One party oligarchies much safer than most new democracies or tyrant-led Cultures, nationalism, and war? What does constructivism suggest about this (i.e., cultures change)?
THE CAUSES OF WAR: THE INTL. SYSTEM Key fact: The members of the UN Security Council have been involved in a lot more wars than other states (except for China up to the present) Anarchy, self-help, the security dilemma Collective security still doesn’t work well The limits of international institutions Some distributions of power in the intl system cause more conflict than others. Cycle theories: human memory and the nature of hegemony. Biosphere stress may cause more conflict over time HOW IS WAR CHANGING? SOME OF THE BIG QUESTIONS SOCIAL SCIENTISTS ARE LOOKING AT There are a lot fewer wars about resources than there used to be…why is this so (population, norms, contact thesis)? Is this pattern likely to persist? There seem to be more civil wars and wars over nationalism and religion. Why? (Globalization) Are wars over ideology gone or just awaiting competition among multiple hegemons to heat up again? Can we expect more wars in the future in the name of humanity (R2P)?