Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2 Task Force on GDP Flash estimates at t+30 days Item 6 On GDP t+30 Eurostat results, on work done and still to be done 5th Meeting of the TF, Rome 22-23 June, 2015 Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2

Content Planned data work: how much is done…& what is still to be done Results: test estimations Estimation for real-time quarters Estimation for back quarters (preliminary) Results: comparison with the US t+30 Results: comparison with the quality criteria Discussion on results TF T+30, June 2015

1. Data work done and still to be done … Nr What When Who 1 Test calculations – ‘real time’ provision of national data every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards End-Jan 2015, end-Apr 2015, etc. Most TF Members 2 Production of EU and EA GDP test flash estimates, every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards Begin-Feb 2015, begin-May 2015, etc. ESTAT, CE 3 Test calculations – provision of national back data 2012Q1- 2013Q4 December 2014  February 2014 Most TF members 4 Test estimates for EA/EU, back data 2012Q1 – 2013Q4 Spring 2015 – Summer 2015 ESTAT, CE? TF T+30, June 2015

1. … Data work done and still to be done Nr What When Who 5 Update of growth rate triangles for revision analyses – 2012-2013, 2014-2015 – transmit your estimate in future with the growth rate template (with last quarter updated) Spring 2015 – Summer 2015 2015Q2 onwards TF Members, ESTAT TF Members (ESTAT updates as well) 6 Revision analysis on the test estimates – 2012-2013, 2014-2015 Spring 2015 – Autumn 2015 ESTAT, WG quality 7 Calculation of data indicators and other analyses for Quality criteria (e.g. un-biasness of t+30?) Summer 2015 – Autumn 2015 TF T+30, June 2014

2a. Results test estimates (real-time quarters)… Here on the left, as previously, you can see the country data used in the estimations In the column T+30 test you can see the t+30 days' estimates And in the column T+45 Flash the t+45 estimate for comparison

…2a. Results test estimates (real-time quarters)

2b. Results test estimates (back-quarters, prelim.)… TF T+30, June 2015

…2b. Results test estimates (back-quarters, prelim.) TF T+30, June 2015

2. Comparison: US with EU27/28 … To suggest quality criteria in the Quality Working Group, to understand what the t+30 revision could be for similar size economic area, we had to find a benchmark. We contacted BEA as the US has published GDP at t+30d since late 1970s. They kindly provided all the vintages of their quarterly GDP growth, this means 30 – 60 – 90 GDP growth rates for each quarter The average absolute revision of the 60-30 US growth has been since 2012Q1 0.13 ppt. This was taken as go / no go quality criteria for European t+30 test estimates: we should have our 65-30 absolute revisions less or equal 0.13 ppt. Now when we have preliminary back estimates we can compare our results with the US ones: As you can see on the left hand side, the absolute revisions of US 60-30 estimates vary between 0.03 and 0.27. In the right hand side: our European test estimates the 65 – 30 d estimates' revisions vary btw. 0.01 and 0.12 and are hence smaller. The EU t+30 average absolute revision is 0.05 which is smaller than 0.13 In a similar manner, our test estimates' 100-30 d revisions seem to be smaller than the US 90 -30 d estimates' revisions. Here the difference is even bigger. US has had some high figures in 90-30 d revisions, e.g. 0.77 ppt for 2014Q1 One last thing is good to add here: we got a comment for the comparison with US: European GDP has been close to zero and not varied much since 2012, whereas US growth has been higher and varied more. What if the bigger revisions come because of higher growth rates in the US. There is a way to check this: In the last line I have proportioned the average absolute revision to the standard deviation of the growth rate. By this way we proportionate the size of the revisions to the variation of the growth. In the 60-30 US case the average abs revisions were 32% of the std dev of growth. In the EU 65-30 the same 'absolute revision relative to the variation of growth' was smaller, 19%. The same is even more clear in the 90-30 vs. EU 100-30 estimates.

…2. Comparison: US with EA17/18 Here you can see the same comparison of US with euro area 17/18. The conclusion is the same, ea test estimate revisions have been smaller than the revisions of the US t+30

3. Comparison of results (so far) with quality criteria Average revision between -0.05 and +0.05, Now: EU -0.01, EA -0.01 no more than 67% of revisions in same direction Now: EU 61.5%, EA 53.8% T+30 average absolute revision ≤0.10 (to t+45) EU 0.05, EA 0.066 and ≤ 0.13 (to t+65) EU 0.05, EA 0.06 For 2015 coverage national estimates > 70% Five last quarter average: EU 77%, EA 78% (4) Communication plan should be available …. on its way….)

4. Discussion on test results (so far) After 5 real-time and 8 back quarters the results do not look bad – some of the back estimates may look even too good, there will likely be revisions for EU/EA GDP which needs to be communicated The work TF members have promptly done may result in publishing European GDP estimates at t+30 d. This has been discussed and suggested since 2002-2003. Congratulations ! TF T+30, June 2015

Thank you for your attention ! MANY THANKS FOR THE WORK DONE FOR YOUR COUNTRY ESTIMATES ! Comments, notions from TF members: Please feel free to comment … TF T+30, June 2015