M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z

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Presentation transcript:

M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter, W. Schöpp Scope for further emission reductions: The range between Current Legislation and Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions

General assumptions All calculations for 2020 Current legislation (CLE) case: CAFE baseline scenario, “with climate measures” Maximum technicallay feasible reduction” (MTFR) case assumes maximum reductions also in non-EU countries and sea regions All impact assessments for 1997 meteorology

Scope for further improvements

Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions CAFE “Climate policy” projection, relative to year 2000 [= 100%]

Scope for further technical emission reductions “Illustrative Climate” vs. Climate policy” scenario, EU-25, 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5 2000 CLE-2020 CP CL-2020-IC MFR-2020-CP MFR-2020-IC

Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 [µg/m3] 2020 2020 CLE MTFR Contributions of primary and secondary inorganic aerosols to PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] 2020 2020 Current legislation Max. feas. reductions Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM

Remaining gaps for loss in life expectancy 2000 = 100% gap to no-effect level

Health-relevant ozone concentrations [SOMO35, ppm.days] 2020 2020 Current legislation Max. feas. reductions Grid average concentrations Calculations for 1997 meteorology

Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases per year]

Remaining gap for premature deaths attributable to ozone (effect in 2000 = 100% gap)

Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours] 2020 2020 Current legislation Max. feas. reductions Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Calculations for 1997 meteorology

Acid deposition to forests 2020 2020 Current legislation Max. feas. reductions Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Calculation for 1997 meteorology

Acid deposition to forests % of forest area with acid deposition above CL

Remaining gap for forest acidification (effect in 2000 = 100% gap)

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas 2020 2020 Current legislation Max. feas. reductions Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas

Remaining gap for semi-natural ecosystems (effect in 2000 = 100% gap)

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies 2020 2020 Current legislation Max. feas. reductions Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above CL

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication 2020 2020 Current legislation Max. feas. reductions Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads using grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above CL

Remaining gap for eutrophication (effect in 2000 = 100% gap)

Conclusions There is scope for further emission reductions Meaningful targets for optimization can only be between CLE and MTFR. Must be above the MTFR everywhere Choice of targets determines distributions of burdens Proposal for initial optimization runs: Optimization for 3 ambition levels for each environmental problem, evaluation of impacts for all other problems Some joint optimizations? Assumptions for non-EU countries? 2020 and 2015?

Wish list ranked according to priority Policy runs (3*5 scenarios) for 2020 – including cost estimates Explore uncertainties through sensitivity analyses MTFR for national scenarios Different meteorological years Increased hemispheric background for O3 Policy packages EURO-V/VI CAP reform scenario Scenario with maximum Europe-wide measures Include emerging technologies (e.g., beyond SCR) Ultimate MTFR scenario Look at 2010 All results 10 days before meeting