1. Draft Baseline Scenarios for CAFE
Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont, Wilfried Winiwarter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Frantisek Gyarfas, Imrich Bertok
Draft Baseline Scenarios for CAFE
3rd Stakeholder Consultation Brussels, April 30, 2004

2. Integrated assessment in CAFE
Energy/agriculture
projections
Driving forces
Emission control
options
BASELINE PROJECTION
OPTIMIZATION
Emissions
Costs
Atmospheric dispersion
Environmental
targets
Health and environmental impacts

3. Preparation of input data

4. Bilateral consultations Main issues
Energy projections:
Discrepancies of year 2000 energy statistics
Comments on PRIMES projections
Obvious discrepancies
Differences in expectations
Emission calculations:
Review of year 2000 emission inventory
Penetration rates of control measures
Emission control potential
for
SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM10/2.5

5. Bilateral consultations (1)
Country or organization
Consultation meeting date
No of experts
Comments received
Comments PRIMES
Energy scenario
Agr. scen
Denmark -
16 Jan 04 Y
Latvia
08 Oct 03
EUROPIA
2-3 Oct 03 2
05 Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04
EURELECTRIC
30-31 Oct 03 4
Hungary
14 Nov 03 1
Germany
20-21 Nov 03
19 Dec Mar 04
Czech Republic
25 Nov 03 3
19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04
ACEA
12 Dec 03 10
Italy
15-16 Dec 03
19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04
France
8-9 Jan 04 5
31 Mar Apr 04
Sweden
22-23 Jan 04
29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 UK
26-28 Jan 04 8
19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04
Spain
4-5 Feb 04
30 Mar Apr 04
Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

6. Bilateral consultations (2)
Country or organization
Consultation meeting date
No of experts
Comments received
Comments PRIMES
Energy scenario
Agr. . scen
Portugal
12-13 Feb 04 5
27 Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 Y
Belgium
16-17 Feb 04 7
08 Mar Apr, 06 Apr 04 -
Austria
23 Feb 04 11
24 Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04
Ireland
4-5/19 Mar 04 2
12,19 Mar 04
ESVOC
8 Mar 04 3
Finland
8-9 Mar 04
19,25 Mar Apr 04
(Y)
Lithuania
10 Mar 04
24 Mar 04
Estonia
12 Mar 04
17 Mar 04
Slovakia
15 Mar 04
22 Mar 04
Poland
17-18 Mar 04
17,18 Mar Apr 04
Slovenia
24,29 Mar , 08 Apr 04
Netherlands
25-26 Mar 04 4
16 Mar ,08,18 Apr 04
19 + 4 94 21 14 10
Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

7. Bilateral consultations
Despite time pressure, very constructive attitude at the meetings!
Thorough, well prepared input from national experts!
Prompt response to follow-up questions!
THANK YOU!
No contacts: Cyprus, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta.

8. Next steps June 2004 Incorporation of national scenarios
Feedbacks on the 2 draft emission scenarios
Revised PRIMES scenario (with climate) taking into account country comments
September 2004
First set of policy scenarios

10. Approach to energy-related projections
Janusz Cofala
Approach to energy-related projections

11. CAFE energy baseline projections
Two draft baseline projections – available
include PRIMES numbers plus additional assumptions from national submissions (e.g., share of LDTs in freight transport, fuel use by off-road vehicles and maritime activities, corrections for fuel used outside EMEP area)
National projections will be implemented by June
Currently available for eight countries, some of them need to be completed or re-formatted
Revised PRIMES projection by June

12. Approach for baseline emission projections
Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000
Problem: for some countries important differences between subsequent submissions (e.g., to CLRTAP, NEC, new national total different by > 10%)
Values reported to CLRTAP plus changes documented during consultations taken into account
Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020
Takes international and national legislation into account
Done together with national teams to also include “current practices”

13. Problems encountered
Tight schedule and thus late delivery of national data - not all comments could be included
Insufficient time for iterations with national experts
Problem with interpretation of national numbers (format, coverage)
Inclusion of suggested changes would have created large inconsistencies with national inventories
Consultations helped a lot in mutual understanding!

14. Transport emissions - approach (1)
Exhaust emissions – fuel use from PRIMES
Non-exhaust emissions – veh-km (derived from fuel use)
Turnover of fleet taken from national estimates
National emission factors applied where available (Auto/Oil estimates modified during consultations)
Efficiencies of EURO-stages based on Auto/Oil info plus other sources (TREMOD, Austrian model, RICARDO - for EURO 5/6)

15. Transport emissions - approach (2)
Impact of cycle-beating for trucks on NOx considered (ARTEMIS Project, report by TU Graz, 2003), generates inconsistencies with some national 2000 emission inventories
Other findings of ARTEMIS not included
Data for off-road sources from EGTEI
Consistency with TREMOVE not yet established
Further calibration and updates is needed when new data become available

17. Comments on the agricultural projections
Zbigniew Klimont
Comments on the agricultural projections

18. Available projections
No-CAP reform projection is implemented
National projections will be implemented by June 2004
CAP-reform scenario: implementation depends on availability of data

19. Approach for baseline emission projections
Capture major characteristics of national agricultural systems, including implementation of measures
Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000
Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020

20. Problems encountered Only limited response to the RAINS data sets
Only few countries commented on control strategies
A number of “consistency” issues encountered, i.e.,
What are laying hens?
Which horses emit ammonia and why not all of them?
How to deal with changing production efficiency and its feedback on “unit” ammonia emissions?
In some cases late delivery of national data
Insufficient time for iterations with national experts

21. Comments on the projections of VOC related activities

22. Available projections
Baseline projection: based on PRIMES (no climate policy) value added growth rates
Additional information from national experts was used, especially for sectors that were only poorly correlated with the PRIMES broad sector categories
National projections will be implemented by June 2004

23. Approach for baseline emission projections
Attempt to reproduce national implied emission factors including implementation of VOC control measures between 1990 and 2000
Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000
Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020

24. Problems encountered
Late completion of RAINS for the non-energy sectors
Limited response to the energy related data sets
Several countries pointed out that data required by RAINS (although aggregated) is hardly or not available in national inventory systems
Difficulty in defining national control strategies and future penetration rates
Insufficient time for iterations with national experts

26. Draft baseline emission projections

27. Energy projections

28. Energy projections By now: By end of June:
2 Europe-wide projections implemented:
DG-TREN Baseline (no further climate measures)
With climate measures
By end of June:
National projections
Revised PRIMES projection with climate measures, taking into account stakeholder comments

29. Energy use per fuel EU-15 [PJ]
No further climate measures With climate measures
Solid fuels
Liquid fuels
Natural gas
Renewable
Nuclear
Difference to "no further climate measures"

30. Energy use per fuel New Member States [PJ]
No further climate measures With climate measures
Solid fuels
Liquid fuels
Natural gas
Renewable
Nuclear
Difference to "no further climate measures"

31. CO2 emissions relative to 2000!

32. Agricultural projections

33. Animal numbers (pre-CAP reform), relative to 2000
EU New Member States
Cattle
Pigs
Chicken
Other animals

34. SO2 emissions

35. Comparison of 2000 SO2 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

36. SO2 emissions Measures: Large Combustion Plant Directive
S Content of Liquid Fuels Directive
Directives on quality of petrol and diesel fuels
IPPC legislation on process sources
National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

37. SO2 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt]
x NEC Ceiling 3850 kt x
Power generation
Industry
Households
Transport
Process emissions
"Climate bonus"
No further climate measures With climate measures

38. SO2 emissions by sector New Member States [kt]
Power generation
Industry
Households
Transport
Process emissions
"Climate bonus"
x NEC Ceiling 2693 kt x
No further climate measures With climate measures

39. Projected SO2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

40. Projected SO2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

41. NOx emissions

42. Comparison of 2000 NOx inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

43. NOx emissions Assumed measures: LCP Directive Auto/Oil EURO standards
Standards for motorcycles and mopeds
Legislation on non-road mobile machinery
Implementation failure of EURO-II and III for HDT
IPPC legislation on process sources
National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

44. NOx emissions by sector EU-15 [kt]
Power generation
Industry
Households
Transport
Process emissions
"Climate bonus"
x NEC Ceiling 6519 kt
No further climate measures With climate measures

45. NOx emissions by sector New Member States [kt]
Power generation
Industry
Households
Transport
Process emissions
"Climate bonus"
x NEC Ceiling 1800 kt x
No further climate measures With climate measures

46. Projected NOx emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

47. Projected NOx emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

48. Emissions from shipping [% of land-based EU-25 emissions]

49. VOC emissions

50. Comparison of 2000 VOC inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

51. VOC emissions Assumed measures: Stage I Directive
Directive 91/441 (carbon canisters)
Auto/Oil EURO standards
Fuel Directive (RVP of fuels)
Solvents Directive
Product Directive (paints)
National legislation, e.g., Stage II

52. VOC emissions EU-15 [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 6510kt 2000 4000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Stationary combustion
Mobile sources
Fuel extraction+distribution
Industrial processes
Solvents

53. VOC emissions New Member States [kt]
x NEC Ceiling 1640 kt

54. Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

55. Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

56. NH3 emissions

57. Comparison of 2000 NH3 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

58. NH3 emissions Assumed measures: No EU-wide legislation
National legislations
Current practice

59. NH3 emissions EU-15 [kt]
x NEC Ceiling 3310 kt

60. NH3 emissions New Member States [kt]
x NEC Ceiling 866 kt

61. Projected NH3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

62. Projected NH3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

63. PM10 emissions

64. Comparison of 2000 PM10 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

65. PM10 emissions Assumed measures: LCP Directive Auto/Oil EURO standards
Standards for motorcycles and mopeds
Legislation on non-road mobile machinery
IPPC legislation on process sources
National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

66. Primary PM10 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt]
Coal, oil
Wood
Diesel, gasoline
Other
"Climate bonus"
No further climate measures With climate measures

67. Primary PM10 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt]
Coal, oil
Wood
Diesel, gasoline
Other
"Climate bonus"
No further climate measures With climate measures

68. PM2.5 emissions

69. Comparison of 2000 PM2.5 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

70. Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt]
Power generation
Industry
Households
Transport
Process emissions
Waste+agriculture
No further climate measures With climate measures

71. Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector New Member States [kt]
Power generation
Industry
Households
Transport
Process emissions
Waste+agriculture
No further climate measures With climate measures

72. Draft conclusions General downwards trend in emissions caused by
Legislation on transport emissions
Further penetration of natural gas
Large Combustion Plant Directive
Larger improvements in New Member States
Caveats:
National energy projections might differ from PRIMES
Further validation of emission estimates necessary
More information on effects of transport emission legislation required

74. Provisional estimates!
Air quality impacts
Provisional estimates!

75. PM2.5
Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols
No natural sources (soil, sea salt, biogenic, etc.) included!
Rural concentrations Annual mean
Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

76. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols
Emissions for no further climate measures scenario, Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003, EMEP Eulerian model

77. Inter-annual meteorological variability Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5
average
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols
Emissions for 2000, EMEP Eulerian model

78. Loss in life expectancy

79. Loss in life expectancy
Loss in average life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 (days)
Mean meteorology
Preliminary estimates (simplified treatment of urban PM)

80. Loss in life expectancy due to PM2
Loss in life expectancy due to PM2.5 Inter-annual meteorological variability
Mean
Loss in average life expectancy (days) Due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Emissions of 2000
Preliminary estimates (simplified treatment of urban PM)

81. No natural sources (soil, sea salt, etc.) included!
PM10
Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols
No natural sources (soil, sea salt, etc.) included!
Rural concentrations
Annual mean
Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

82. Anthropogenic contribution to PM10
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols
Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

83. Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Six months (April-September)
Ozone AOT40
Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours
Six months (April-September)
Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

84. AOT40 2000 AOT40 (ppm.hours) Emissions for 2000
Average 1999 & meteorology
EMEP/MSC-W

85. AOT40 2000 2010 2020 Six months AOT40 (forests) [ppm.hours]
Six months AOT40 (forests) [ppm.hours]
Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

86. Six months (April-September)
Ozone AOT60
Six months (April-September)
Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

87. AOT60 (ppm.hours)
Mean meteorology, April-September

88. Acidification of forest soils
Percentage of forest area
with acid deposition above critical loads
Using ecosystem-specific deposition!
Based on preliminary critical loads data!
Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

89. Excess of forest critical loads
Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, mean meteorology

90. Conclusions
With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.
However, problems will not be entirely resolved:
PM remains serious (6 months life expectancy loss in 2020)
Ozone:
Failure to meet old WHO guideline value in some parts of Europe even in 2020
More serious impacts to be expected according to new WHO findings (even with conservative interpretation)
Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3
Eutrophication remains unresolved